Tag: weekly update

Posted on

Is The Bull Market Back?

Daily Chart October 16 InvestWithAlex

10/16/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 74 points (+0.43%) and the Nasdaq up 16 points (+0.34%) 

Despite this week’s drama and high octane sell-offs and rallies, the overall market was able to push only marginally higher.  Although, I must say, the sentiment is definitely bullish.

A few things to consider as we move into the weekend.

As my earlier posts throughout the week indicated, most corporates are missing their earnings targets and/or guiding lower. And while we already talked about WalMart, here is what the Netflix had to say Netflix blames weak U.S subscriber adds on new chip-based cards

“It’s just the dumbest thing I’ve heard,” Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said. “It begs a million questions,” he said.

I couldn’t agree more. I wonder how many companies will use this innovative excuse going forward. Yet, my view remains the same.

The reality is a little bit different. I think a high percentage of companies will guide lower or miss earnings.  Now that that the QE and zero interest rates have worked their way though our financial system, the US Economy is rolling over into a severe recession. And there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. Given today’s overvaluation levels, that is not a good sign for the overall stock market.

But hey, what do I know….Bill Miller: Now is perfect time to buy US stocks

“But we also want people to take money out of stocks because they hate them, so they’re cheap,” he said in a ” Squawk Box ” interview. “That’s exactly the environment we have today.”

I especially love it when they all laugh at 1% treasury yields, followed by an always convenient, “Where else are you going to put your money?”

What these Bozos don’t get, as both Carl Icahn and I have outlined a number of times before……it is a hell of a lot better to earn 1% than to take a 30-50% haircut on your capital. Just as people found out 2000-2002 and then again in 2007-2009.

On the flip side, consider the following

For Yamada, it’s only a matter of time before the S&P 500 hits the next level of resistance, and investors should be prepared for what could be the start of sharp selling. “A lot of these rallies tend to bring us to a place of complacency before the bear claw may come out again to strike,” she warned. “We are skeptical of this rally.”

Who is right?

No one and everyone. That’s what makes the market. Yet, the fundamentals are fairly clear. The stock market, based on Shillers Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio, is at the 3rd highest valuation level in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000. At the same time and as evident from Q-3 reports thus far, earnings are decelerating if not outright collapsing. So is the US Economy.

Can the stock market stay up and/or push higher? Do you believe in magic…..would be a more appropriate question.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 16th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is The Bull Market Back?  Google

Posted on

Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed September 29th Bottom Call By 3 Points.

Daily Chart October 9 InvestWithAlex

10/9/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 33 points (+0.20%) and and the Nasdaq up 19 points (+0.41%).

In early September of 2015 I updated my subscribers on some important TIME turning points. Particularly.

  • September 17th 2015 (+/- 1 trading day) and
  • September 29th 2015(+/- 1 trading day)

As we approached September 17th, the FED interest rate decision date, an important top target was identified on the Dow at 16,850 (+/- 25 points). The target was hit right after the FED decision, but the market spiked through it. Topping out a few minutes later at 16,933. Then reversing and selling off to the tune of 1,000 Dow points.

We then faced a very similar situation on September 29th. As the market was collapsing and everyone was starting to freak out, I have identified an important mathematical resistance point on the Dow at 15,965 (+/- 20 points). This point was identified a few days prior. The market proceeded to deliver an exact hit, in this case bottoming on September 29th at 15,942. Or, it was 3 points outside of the range above.

What happens next? Well, if you would be interested in this kind of analysis, please Click Here.

Now, as we head into the weekend, quite a few additional things are worth your attention.

Fed official still favors 2015 hike but notes dimmer outlook

Just give it up Janet Yellen. No one believes you anymore. Well, if they have at least half a brain. And as I have said here at least a million times before, the FED will not raise interest rates in any meaningful way. Most likely not at all. The market and resurfacing deflation will prevent them.

Plus, I have a quick suggestion for Janet Yellen. Instead of trying to BS the market, start working on your “Crisis Of 2015-2017” whitepaper. And think long and hard about how you will explain to the fools in Washington as to why the stock market has crashed and the US Economy went into a tailspin. All while the interest rates were at zero and you were printing money through QE.  As a friendly advice, you can always blame Mr. Putin.

This rally deserves respect, though Nasdaq weakness glares

As I have said here a few days ago, what a difference a week makes. Around September 29th, everyone was extremely bearish. Predicting all sort of things, including a market crash. Today, the opposite is true. The bears got squeezed while most in the financial industry are calling for a market bottom. Yet, the fundamentals haven’t changed.

What fundamental?

  • The FED is stuck in the worst possible position. Unable to raise interest rates and/or stimulate the economy further.
  • With QE, zero interest rates and stock buybacks monetary velocity slowing, there is nothing to propel us forward.
  • The US Economy is rolling over into a recessionary environment.
  • Earnings are expected to decline. If not collapse. Just as they did in 2008/2009.
  • All of the above should send chills down investors spines once they realize the stock market is selling at a Shiller Adjusted S&P P/E multiple that is the 3rd highest in history. Right behind 1929 and 2000 tops and on par with 2007 top.

Considering the above, you won’t find Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Carl Icahn and many others switching to the bullish side just because the market staged a 2%+ rally. Don’t forget, these structural moves take time. In many cases years.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 9th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed September 29th Bottom Call By 3 Points Google

Posted on

The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Recent Trouble

Daily Chart October 2 InvestWithAlex10/2/2015- A positive day with the Dow Jones up 200 points (+1.23%) and the Nasdaq up 80 points (+1.74%) 

Despite today’s rally, this has been a relatively flat week for the market.  What’s worse, all of the primary indices (the Dow, Russell, NYSE, Nasdaq and S&P) are now firmly in the negative territory for the year.  That SHOULD cause some concern. Perhaps the analysis below can clear things up.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 7th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Recent Trouble Google

Posted on

Shocking Predictions: Here Is What Top Minds In Finance See Happening Next

Daily Chart September 25 InvestWithAlex

9/25/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 112 points (+0.69%) and the Nasdaq down 48 points (-1.01%).

The market is confused at the present moment. There is no other way to put it. Confused about the direction, valuations, the FED, earnings, August’s sell-off, etc….. And while some see it as a buying opportunity of a lifetime and the Dow 20K by the end of the year, others see the early stages of a steep bear market.

My view is very well know here. So, instead of repeating it for the 100th time, let’s look at what some of the others are saying. People you should be listening to….

El-Erian sees ‘once a decade’ opportunity

“If you already have exposure, wait a little bit, there are going to be even more attractive positions—there are still people stuck in those markets looking to get out,” he said. “We’re going to look back on this, and this is going to be a very attractive stage.”

“It’s one of these things that happens once a decade … but be careful because it’s going to be incredibly volatile in the next few months,” he added.

My Comment: He is talking about MSCI Emerging Markets here and I couldn’t agree more. Russia, Brazil, etc… .are being given away when compared to the Western Valuations. I haven’t checked in a while but a few months ago the market cap of Google was larger than the market cap of Russia’s entire market. Such deep value should attract value investors. At the same time, the bottom in these indices are likely to occur at the same time the US Bottoms. Hence, a little bit more patience might be needed.

Shiller: Stocks and housing are overvalued– here’s what to do about it

“The correction in August brought the market down ten percent,” Shiller says. “But it’s halfway back up. It’s still looking pretty frothy.”

My Comment: We are at historic highs in almost all markets and a clear double top in housing. All thanks to the FED and their little liquidity/speculation party. But, all good things eventually come to an end. Sometimes in a violent fashion.

Bill Gross urges Fed to ‘get off zero and get off quick’ on rates

“Zero destroys existing business models such as life insurance company balance sheets and pension funds, which in turn are expected to use the proceeds to pay benefits for an aging boomer society,” Gross said. “These assumed liabilities were based on the assumption that a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds would return 7-8 percent over the long term.”

My Comment: I couldn’t agree more with Bill Gross here, but I don’t think the FED will raise in any meaningful way anytime soon. As I have indicated here so many times before. They cannot, and therefore, they will not. The market might eventually do it for them, but that’s a different story.

Finally, another frank opinion from Carl Icahn. If you participate in financial markets the video below is a must watch.

Carl Icahn and Larry Fink, BlackRock Chairman and CEO discuss the state of today’s financial market.  As a quick summary…..

Carl Icahn: High-yield market is about to blow up (he indicated previously that he has a large short position there or building one). Just as it did in 2007-2009. This will have a net negative impact on the stock market. Just as it did in 2008.

Larry Fink: No way in hell, we don’t have the leverage we had in 2007.

My Comments: I believe Carl Icahn is on the right side of the trade here. The massive amount of leverage Larry Fink dismisses is still there. Its just that a large chunk of it got shifted onto the FED’s balance sheet and the stock market.

Here is what I believe the trigger point will be: As soon as investors lose “net faith” in the FED you will see this whole thing fall apart. Fast. As far as I am concerned they have already lost the window of opportunity to raise interest rates. They will now be stuck in the worst case scenario…..zero interest rates, no way to stimulate as another round of QE can backfire and collapsing capital markets. As soon as investors come to this realization, the jig will be up. And that should happen much sooner than most people anticipate.

Anyway, watch this video. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking Prediction: Here Is What Top Minds In Finance See Happening Next Google

Posted on

How We Nailed May 19th, 2015 Top – To The Day.

Daily Chart September 11 InvestWithAlex9/11/2015 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 101 points (+0.62%) and the Nasdaq up 26 points (+0.54%) 

May 19th was incredibly important. First, the stock market was celebrating its 225th birthday. The first official day of trading in the US was May 19th, 1790. Second, the Dow put in an important mathematical, timing and structural TOP at the time.  Finally, it was also my birthday. Which explains why I am obsessed with the stock market. Since our birthdays are the same, we tend to vibrate at the same frequency.

Anyway, as the Dow pushed higher in mid May, 95% of market pundits, money managers and economists were predicting the Dow 20,000 by the end of the year. I was NOT in that camp. Not by a long shot. On the contrary, I was building into 100% short position at the time and so were my subscribers. Here is why…..take a look at the chart below.

My subscribers first saw this chart in early April of 2015.

STOCK MARKET

At that time, April of 2015, my basic forecast was as follows (without getting into intricacies of it). 

  1. The Dow will remain within the confines of the elliptical structure above until the ellipse terminates at the right hand side mid-point in late July of 2015.
  2. The market will not move fast or we will remains within the confines of a low energy market until we terminate the ellipse in late July. But as soon as we do, energy levels and volatility should spike higher. In other words, we will move fast.

Here is the actual outcome:

1 ellipse

Pay particularly close attention to the following.

  1. We had a very powerful TIME turning point arriving on May 19th (+/- 1 trading day)
  2. The market ran right into elliptical resistance at the same time.
  3. Plus, wedge compression line terminated at the same time.

All of that was indicative of a major top being put in place. So, while everyone was extremely bullish, I was telling my subscribers….

“Do not wait for elliptical termination point, go short NOW. We are unlikely to see these top levels again anytime soon”

Finally, notice what has happened right after the market fell out of the ellipse. Just as suggested above, we have had a major spike in volatility and the market covered more ground to the downside in 7 trading hours, than it did in the 3 months prior.  I have posted quite a few blog posts prior to that, warning people of the same. For instance, Is Our Historically Boring Market About To Get Exciting? You Bet – Published on July 31st, 2015

If you would be interested in this type of an analysis and/or if you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. September 11th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

How We Nailed May 19th, 2015 Top – To The Day.  Google

Posted on

Just A Correction Or Did A Bear Market Already Start?

Daily Chart August 14 2015

8/14/2015 – A positive day with the Dow Jones up 69 points (0.40%) and the Nasdaq up 15 points (0.29%) 

The primary line of thinking on “The Street” is as follows. We are undergoing a regular correction and as soon as it’s over, the stock market will push to new highs. For instance, This could be correction stocks are waiting for. AKA, buy the dip.

My question is, what if this “mild correction” turns into a real bear market? What if this 5-10% correction turns into a 20-30-40% decline over the next two years?

Don’t forget, the 2000 and 2007 bear markets started with small corrections as well.

Last week I shared the following cyclical breakdown with you Shocking: The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Decline & What’s Next

This week, let’s review our primary bearish driver. Excessive overvaluation.

One of the primary bullish arguments is a claim that the stock market is not expensive by any historical measure. I have argued against this notion by presenting a number of metrics over the last 6-9 months. The article below summarizes most of them in a nice fashion and with charts. It is definitely worth 5 minutes of your time.

Forbes: Disaster Is Inevitable When The Two Decade-Old Stock Bubble Bursts

The case, charts and numbers presented in the article above are right on the money. Or, you can just look at the Shiller’s Adjusted S&P ratio chart below. We have seen higher valuations only at 1929 and 2000 tops.

PE Ratio

However, here is one crucial factor that most analyst, even the bearish ones, miss. ALL of today’s valuation metrics would be even more out of sync with reality if analysts considered how much “extra juice” zero interest rates, QE and share buybacks infused into the corporate earnings over the last 5-6 years.

What is that number? 

Given current distortions, no one knows and the real number in question cannot be calculated at this time. It is arbitrary at best, but I would estimate that the drivers above added somewhere between 50-100% to today’s corporate earnings.

Here is what that means. If we are to take out QE stimulus, zero interest rates and share buybacks, today’s P/E ratio would not be around 27.44 (which is outrageously expensive), it would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-50. Making today’s stock market not only overvalued, but are you “freaking kidding me” overvalued. That is to say, you don’t have to be a genius to figure out how this ends.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 14th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Just A Correction Or Did A Bear Market Already Start?  Google

Posted on

The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Decline & What’s Next – Summer Hiatus

Daily Chart August 21 20158/21/2015 – Another massive down day with the Dow Jones down 530 points (-3.12%) and the Nasdaq down 171 points (-3.52%). 

I AM TAKING A LITTLE BREAK FROM BLOGGING.  BACK AFTER LABOR DAY OR SEPT – 8TH. OUR PREMIUM SERVICE REMAINS FULLY FUNCTIONAL. 

This has not been a good week for the market. The Dow, Russell, NYSE and S&P  are now firmly in the negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq is at a break even point, but barely so. And while we are likely to get some sort of a bounce, sometime soon, this SHOULD cause some concern. Perhaps the analysis below can clear things up.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 7th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Decline & What’s Next Google

Posted on

My Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed Monday’s Bottom By 1 Point On The Dow

Daily Chart Uly 31 InvestWithAlex

7/31/2015 – A negative day with Dow Jones down 55 points (-0.31%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.01%)

Instead of complaining about today’s valuation levels, allow me to illustrate to you just how accurate our timing and mathematical work can be. Not always, but often enough. If you would like to find out what the market will do next, please Click Here.

Long story short, in my weekly update to my subscribers I have suggested that the market was about to bottom on July 28th (+/- 1 trading day) and then bounce. Prior to Monday’s opening I have indicated that we were about to put in a bottom at the open and then reverse (see below). At 17,425 (+/- 25 points).

We did just that 15 minutes into trading. I personally reversed my short position into a long position just 20 Dow points shy of the actual bottom at 17,399 ( in the final analysis our forecast missed by 1 point – outside of our range). Again, if you would like to find out what the market will do next, please Click Here.

MONDAY, JULY 27TH, 2015 –  INTRADAY UPDATES. 

(XXXX – Information not available in a free public forum).

PRE-MARKET: An incredibly important update to layer on top of our weekly update. I have spent the weekend re-calculating everything. Here are my findings.

  1. My original elliptical termination date of XXXX is still valid or just as valid as our XXXX date. We are dealing with a margin of error there. Meaning, once we bounce of off proposed bottom here, we should ………XXXX.
  2. My July 28th (+/- 1 trading day) TIME turning point is likely to arrive TODAY. In fact, I will put the probability of that happening at 75%.
  3. My extremely short-term work (which is more prone to error) suggests that we will see a short-term bottom here about 3 hours into trading or about 12:30 PM EST.

WHERE? My primary candidate right now or the best mathematical point is located at 17,425 (+/- 25 points). It is a strong, but a dirty point. Meaning, it can literally be anywhere within that range.

Elliptical support is at around 17,250 today. So, if you reverse into a long position, as I personally plan to do, you risk or opportunity cost should be around 200 Dow points. My advice, in terms of long-term or short-term investors remains intact here. ………. XXXX…………..., then………

My plan: I will attempt to reverse into a long position for this proposed bounce into…. XXXX. I will be running short-term calculations extensively throughout the day, in an attempt to identify the exact bottom, and I will let you know exactly when and where I am pulling the trigger.

Stay tuned. I should be commenting extensively today.

Finally, I will simply reverse from 100% short to 100% long DIA. Plus, get some call options with the profit I have just generated (very small allocation – as described in our weekly update). I will allocate 20% such profit to the “in the money November 2015 DIA call options”. If this doesn’t make sense, see weekly update TRADING section.

****CRITICAL –  PRE-MARKET 2: It appears we might open right into our target of 17,425. My thinking is, the market will bounce and then come back to test this level again to slightly lower about 2.5-3 hours into trading. With that said, if we slam right into 17,425 or lower at the open, I will execute the trade above. In case the market decides to start its bounce right thereafter. I will do that as soon as a down move stops and the market begins to bounce. I will not pull the trigger for as long as the market sells-off. Even if it goes below 17,400. Stay tuned.

9:45 AM EST: I executed all of my buy/sell orders when we hit 17,425 and DIA equivalent. I am now 100% long + some call options. I will outline all trades in our daily update.

10:15 AM EST Thus far, we have tested price support. However, my short-term TIME cycle has not arrived yet. It will in about 1.5-2 hours. That suggests we might re-test the lows at that point. That might be the last opportunity (if it arrives) to trade right at the proposed bottom if you haven’t. However, as indicated below….I have already reversed.

11:45 AM EST: My short term TIME turning point arrives over the next 60 minutes. It would be a good place to set in a small double bottom. At the same time, we don’t have to. The bottom can already be in as of this morning. If all of the above and below is true, this might be the last opportunity to reverse and/or go long.

July 27th, 2015: 1:50 PM EST: Considering market action thus far, I have a secondary short-term TIME turning point arriving in the first 60 minutes of trading tomorrow. It is likely we will stay at suppressed levels until then. A double bottom at around 17,399 is likely. Then, our proposed bounce should start.

I think the forecast/trading above and subsequent market action speaks for itself. Just pull up the Dow chart and compare. Also, the Nasdaq bottomed 50 minutes into its trading section the following day. Just as indicated in our 1:50 PM update. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 31st, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

My Outrageous Mistake: How We Missed Monday’s Bottom By 1 Point On The Dow Google

Posted on

Shocking: How We Nailed This Week’s Market Top In Both Price & Time

Daily Chart Uly 24 InvestWithAlex

7/24/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 163 points (-0.92%) and the Nasdaq down 58 points (-1.12%).

I hate bragging, but as my friend Donald Trump says, “You Have To”. Earlier in the week my subscription service absolutely nailed the top on the Dow in both Price and Time. Since that point the Dow is down close to 600 points.

Further, if you are confused with this market, you are not alone. We are dealing with a very complex market environment here. A certain structure is about to complete and the market is about to move very fast. Something that my subscribers are very well aware of. If you would like to find out when we hit bottom and what happens next, please Click Here.

And instead of doing my regular weekly update, I will leave you this week with a few charts to consider. Of course, the conclusion you come to is entirely up to you.

The only other time the stock market was this expensive: 1929 and 2000 tech bubble.
PE Ratio

Inflation adjusted S&P: Setting in a double top.

S&P inflation adjusted

Dow Transports Are Not Confirming Higher Highs On The Nasdaq.

Dow Transports 5 investwithalex

NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn’t gone anywhere in 13 months. Now breaking below 200 day moving average.

NYSE Chart investwithalex

Massive divergence between collapsing macro data and stock valuations.

Macro Data InvestWithAlex

Smart money is selling while dumb money is buying. 

big investors investwithalex

Margin debt is at an all time high. Too much risk as everyone is too bullish. 

Margin Debt Investwithalex

If we are to repeat the environment when interest rates were this low last time, the S&P would have to lose 50-80% of its value. shiller pe with rates investwithalex

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 24th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: How We Nailed This Week’s Market Top In Both Price & Time  Google

Posted on

Is Nasdaq Breaking Out Or Playing A Cruel Joke?

Daily Chart Uly 17 InvestWithAlex

7/17/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 34 points (-0.19%) and the Nasdaq up 47 points (+0.91%)

Most people believe that the bull market is back on track. After all, the Nasdaq has broken out to a new high, Netflix is wipping out countless shorts, Google is surging and Facebook is expected to take over the world. What’s not to like?

Well, if I may, most of the other primary indices are not confirming this Nasdaq extravaganza. For instance, the Dow is still 300 points lower than its May 19th top. VIX/VXX are hitting their all time lows. The market is overbought and most primary indices look like a pound of Swiss cheese (too many down gaps).

So, is this a breakout or a false breakout that will reverse and fail. I will let you decide that, but it might be worth studying what had happened to NYSE in April and May. Here is the chart for your reference.

NYSE Chart investwithalexNow, this week’s rally has been driven by 3 primary components.

  1. China Has Been Fixed: As I have explained numerous times over the last few weeks, after it’s massive sell-off, China was bound to bounce. That is exactly what we are seeing. Yet, that that doesn’t mean the rally won’t be retraced back and we won’t have a further crash. In fact, it is highly probable now. The question is…. when? Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tends to agree China Crash Is ‘Way Bigger Than Subprime’
  2. Greece Has Been Fixed: There is no way in hell that Greece can ever repay. Its eventual bankruptcy or default is a mathematical certainty. How long before Greece becomes an issue again? I don’t think very long. El-Erian Agrees: Greek deal only prolongs the inevitable
  3. Short-Covering/Bullish Sentiment/Good Earnings: The market is overbought and bullish sentiment is once again at topping levels. Then you have bulls poking fun of bears You’d be a ‘fool’ to short the market: Gartman Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe Mr. Gartman was predicting a bear market when the Dow was hitting 17,500…5-10 trading days ago. How can anyone manage money like that?

Point being, we are in a very complex short-term and long-term market environment. It would be smart not to come to a quick conclusion here either way. But, if you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 17th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is Nasdaq Breaking Out Or Playing A Cruel Joke?  Google