My Challenge To Mr. Bernanke

PE Ratio

Forget bubble level valuations. Despite the mountain of evidence to the contrary, including the chart above, Mr. Bernanke believes the stock market is not even that expensive. In his recently published blog post Mr. Bernanke writes…

Stock prices have risen rapidly over the past six years or so, but they were also severely depressed during and just after the financial crisis. Arguably, the Fed’s actions have not led to permanent increases in stock prices, but instead have returned them to trend.To illustrate: From the end of the 2001 recession (2001:q4) through the pre-crisis business cycle peak (2007:q4), the S&P 500 stock price index grew by about 1.2 percent a quarter.If the index had grown at that same rate from the fourth quarter of 2007 on, it would have averaged about 2123 in the first quarter of this year; its actual value was 2063, a little below that. There are of course many ways to calculate the “normal” level of stock prices, but most would lead to a similar conclusion.

I can poke so many holes in the statement above that it will end up looking like a pound of Swiss cheese. But I am not going it. Instead, I would like to issue a rather simple challenge to Mr. Bernanke.

If you truly believe the stock market is nowhere near being expensive, why don’t you BUY today. Why don’t you show us all that you truly believe in your own BS, make that information public and allocate a large chunk of your portfolio/wealth in an index fund of your choosing. I will be waiting right here.

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My Challenge To Mr. Bernanke Google

Bernanke Gives The Green Light To Short Stocks

CNBC Idiots

Do you ever wake up and ask yourself how you ended up on this rock they call Earth? Well, it’s one of those morning, at least for me. The amount of stupidity being peddled by the mainstream financial media is truly staggering. Let’s take a quick look at just two instances.

Bernanke sees no risk of hard landing in China, bullish on U.S. economy

If you are not paying attention, the Shanghai Composite is up close to 100% over the last 12 months and has recently went parabolic. Why? Must be China’s empty cities, money printing, massive off balance sheet debt, collapsing growth rate, day trading grandmothers and over 20K new trading accounts being opened each day.

But don’t worry, Mr. Bernanke has a perfect track record. Not only did he save us all in 2009, but he did clearly suggest that the US Economy is doing great and even overheating in Q-1 of 2008. According to the FED minutes. By that time the stock market had already completed 50% of its 2007-2009 decline. Perfection.

Obama says Russia adopting ‘increasingly aggressive posture’

Ummm, must I remind Mr. Obama that it is the US troops that are in Ukraine right now. That NATO has expanded all the way up to the Russian border and for no apparent reason. Well, unless their intention is to start a war. That everything the US touched over the last 15 years has turned to absolute shit (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Georgia, Egypt, Ukraine, etc…).

The only difference here is that Russia has the capability of striking back and is not bending over to NATO’s will. Western warmongers do not like that. Unfortunately, we will all pay for their stupidity.

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Bernanke Gives The Green Light To Short Stocks Google

Bernanke: Idiotic Savers To Blame For Today’s Economic Conundrum

BenHelicopter InvestwithalexI wish it wasn’t true, but Mr.Bernanke now has the audacity to blame savers for today’s economic problems.

BERNANKE: People are saving way too much and it’s holding back the economy

Unbelievable, but true. In layman’s terms, here is what Mr. Bernanke wants you to do.

First, he doesn’t want you saving money. After all, saving money and then intelligently allocating that capital towards production, working capital, infrastructure, etc….., you know, growing the economy the old fashion way…..is foolish. Instead, people should spend every single penny on pointless consumption, then max out their credit cards and use that money to speculate in the stock market. Unfortunately, that is exactly how the US Economy is functioning today.

Second, the savings glut Mr. Bernanke is talking about is not a savings glut at all. It a little difficult to imagine, but it goes something like this. Mr. Bernanke (or Ms.Yellen) pushes a few buttons on his keyboard and “POOF” there is a Trillion dollars sitting on the FED’s balance sheet. Let’s call it “Magic”. That money then flows though the US and Global Economies in a number of different ways and all of a sudden we have our “Savings Glut”. There was no savings glut to begin with, its the same money (at X multiple) that the FED and other central bankers created out of thin air.  Nice business if you can get in on it.

Sure, you can read Mr. Bernanke’s latest blog post and it will sound “reasonable”. Well, assuming you have at least five Ph.D’s and can understand what he is talking about. In the real world and for the real people, the explanation above will suffice. And if you are not concerned that these charlatans/criminals running our monetary system, well, you should be. They make Bernie Madoff look like a boy scout.

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Bernanke: Idiotic Savers To Blame For Today’s Economic Conundrum  Google

When Bernanke Speaks You Listen

10 year note long term

If you haven’t heard, Bernanke is now a blogger. Which gives us a window into the Fed’s hypocrisy. Straight from the horses mouth.

A similarly confused criticism often heard is that the Fed is somehow distorting financial markets and investment decisions by keeping interest rates “artificially low.” Contrary to what sometimes seems to be alleged, the Fed cannot somehow withdraw and leave interest rates to be determined by “the markets.” The Fed’s actions determine the money supply and thus short-term interest rates; it has no choice but to set the short-term interest rate somewhere. So where should that be? The best strategy for the Fed I can think of is to set rates at a level consistent with the healthy operation of the economy over the medium term, that is, at the (today, low) equilibrium rate. There is absolutely nothing artificial about that! Of course, it’s legitimate to argue about where the equilibrium rate actually is at a given time, a debate that Fed policymakers engage in at their every meeting. But that doesn’t seem to be the source of the criticism.

The state of the economy, not the Fed, is the ultimate determinant of the sustainable level of real returns. This helps explain why real interest rates are low throughout the industrialized world, not just in the United States.

Alright, fair enough. I would have to agree with Mr. Bernanke on one thing. As the chart above illustrates, we have been in a 33 year bear market in yields. A bear market that is technically not yet over. I continue to maintain that we will see either a lower low or a double bottom at around 1.3-1.5% on a 10-Year before this bear market is finished.

The problem has to do with interpretation of the Fed’s message by investors and the Fed’s foolishness of believing in their own BS (highlighted quote). For instance, today both the Fed and most investors believe that the FED can control liquidity and stability. I continue to maintain that it is the biggest fallacy out there. Something that most people will only figure out when it is already too late and the markets are in free fall. That is the biggest risk today. 

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When Bernanke Speaks You Listen  Google

What You Ought To Know About Mr. Bernanke Rolling In Fools Money

bernanke meme

Why would anyone pay good money to listen to what this charlatan has to say is beyond me. Not as if he can share an actionable forecast nor does he have a firm grasp on where the economy is headed. His recently released 2008 FED minutes prove that without a shadow of a doubt.

After Fed, Bernanke Offers His Wisdom, for a Big Fee

During his eight years as steward of the world’s largest economy, Mr. Bernanke’s salary was about $200,000 a year. Now he makes that in just a few hours speaking to bankers, hedge fund billionaires and leaders of industry. This year alone, he is poised to make millions of dollars from speaking engagements.

Investors are dealing with an economy that is in large part the creature of Fed policies under Mr. Bernanke, and they are willing to pay top dollar for his words of wisdom as a result.

Wisdom? LOL. As I have suggested here a number of times before, the FED doesn’t know what is going on within the US Economy. It is a reactionary force at best. For instance, while there were a number of brilliant money mangers and economists out there who predicted the 2008 collapse as early as 2005, Mr.Benranke was not one of them. Not even close.

While others saw clear signs of a collapse, the FED and Mr. Bernanke talked about accelerating economy and “a hot” housing market as late as Q1 of 2008.

Today,  we have an identical environment. While I am against any soft of stimulus, tightening today (as the FED is doing) is equivalent to financial suicide. Given the amount of speculation, leverage and leverage driven earnings in the system, any tightening here will set off the next recession. And that’s exactly what we will see when the bear market of 2014-2017 will rear its ugly head ……as per my mathematical work.

Point being, whoever uses Bernanke’s wisdom to invest in today’s environment will get their head handed back to them.  

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Bernanke: I Am Smarter Than I Look. Trust Me

Well, don’t take medical advice from Ben Bernanke. “Although we have been very aggressive, I think on the monetary policy front we could have been even more aggressive.” Really Ben? This is equivalent to giving a strung out coke head another kilo so he can “feel better”. I am dumb founded that most people don’t get it.

The majority of fiscal and financial issues we see around ourselves can be directly traced back to reckless policies by Greenspan, Bernanke and now Yellen. Their answer to everything is to print more money with complete disregard the larger macroeconomic picture. While printing works for a time, when it stops, there is ALWAYS a price to pay. That is exactly where we find ourselves today. 

Over the last couple of years I have argued, sometimes passionately, that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what is going on within our own economy and our financial markets. Not only that, but I have also argued that they are a bunch of idiots and fools who believe that they can somehow control our financial markets.

If recently released transcripts, generated during the 2008 meltdown don’t prove my point of view without a shadow of a doubt, I don’t know what will. Here are just a few quick points from the said transcripts.

  • They didn’t even realize recession was happening until the 4th quarter of 2008. By that point the stock market has completed 80% of its down move.  In fact, for most of 2008 they thought the recession “could be avoided”.

—-Hello???? Was anyone home??? Recession started in Q4 of 2007.

  • Bernanke talked about pent-up demand for housing as late as January 2008.
  • Bernanke was worried about inflation as late as January 2008.
  • Throughout Q1 of 2008 they have held a generally rosy view of the world and the US Economy

 Sure Ben, we believe you. 

ben bernanke cat investwithalex

Bernanke says Fed could have done more during crisis

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could have done more to fight the country’s financial crisis and that he struggled to find the right way to communicate with markets.

“We could have done some things on the margin to mitigate somewhat the crisis,” Bernanke, 60, said on Tuesday in his first public speaking engagement since he stepped down in January after eight years heading the Fed.

“Although we have been very aggressive, I think on the monetary policy front we could have been even more aggressive.”

Bernanke said he could now speak more freely about the crisis than he could while at the Fed – “I can say whatever I want” – and in remarks to over 1,000 bankers and financial professionals in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, he made clear that he had regrets.

The United States became “overconfident”, he said of the period before the September 2008 collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers. That triggered a crash from which parts of the world, including the U.S. economy, have not fully recovered.

“This is going to sound very obvious but the first thing we learned is that the U.S. is not invulnerable to financial crises,” Bernanke said.

As the Fed provided tens of billions of dollars of emergency aid to the U.S. financial system, Bernanke said he felt the central bank was in a “terrible” political situation because it could be accused of bailing out institutions unfairly.

He also said he found it hard to find the right way to communicate with investors when every word was closely scrutinized.

“That was actually very hard for me to get adjusted to that situation where your words have such effect. I came from the academic background and I was used to making hypothetical examples and … I learned I can’t do that because the markets do not understand hypotheticals.”

He concluded that he should “try to simplify the message, but not simplify too much”.

Ultimately, Bernanke said, he wished the U.S. economy could have recovered faster but “we did good in a very complicated situation and in a very complex political situation, and the result is what it is.”

REMUNERATION

Bernanke received at least $250,000 for his appearance at the financial conference staged by National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD.AD), the UAE’s largest bank, according to sources familiar the matter. NBAD did not announce the fee.

Because of Abu Dhabi’s oil wealth, state-controlled NBAD prospered during the global crisis caused by Lehman’s collapse, taking market share from hard-hit U.S. and European banks.

Bernanke’s speaking fee is similar to one received by his predecessor Alan Greenspan for an Abu Dhabi speaking engagement in 2008, the sources said.

Greenspan embarked on a series of lucrative speeches after he stepped down, and Bernanke now appears to be doing the same. He is scheduled to speak at an event in South Africa on Wednesday and in Houston on Friday.

Another former heavyweight in U.S. economic policy, ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, spoke at the Abu Dhabi event and criticized some aspects of Fed policy under Bernanke, although he acknowledged that policy needed to be expansionary.

Ultra-loose monetary policy, known as quantitative easing, has diminished returns in the economy and there is concern about the way the impact of low interest rates is being transmitted through the economy, Summers said.

Bernanke, looking relaxed in a grey suit and tie, said that after stepping down, he would write more about his experiences in the crisis to explain his side of the story. “For the future, I’m in a mode of reflection.”

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Bernanke: I Am Smarter Than I Look. Trust Me  Google

Warning: The US Economy Is Flying Blind…About To Crash

janet yellen investwithalex

Over the last couple of years I have argued, sometimes passionately, that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what is going on within our own economy and our financial markets. Not only that, but I have also argued that they are a bunch of idiots and fools who believe that they can somehow control our financial markets.

If recently released transcripts, generated during the 2008 meltdown don’t prove my point of view without a shadow of a doubt, I don’t know what will. Here are just a few quick points from the said transcripts.

  • They didn’t even realize recession was happening until the 4th quarter of 2008. By that point the stock market has completed 80% of its down move.  In fact, for most of 2008 they thought the recession “could be avoided”.

—-Hello???? Was anyone home??? Recession started in Q4 of 2007.

  • Bernanke talked about pent-up demand for housing as late as January 2008.
  • Bernanke was worried about inflation as late as January 2008.
  • Throughout Q1 of 2008 they have held a generally rosy view of the world and the US Economy

Here are the links to two great articles about the transcripts if you would like to learn more. Click Here and/or Click Here

bernanke meme

The lesson here is twofold.

First, anyone who believes that the FED can either control, anticipate or predict financial markets and/or the economy is even a bigger fool.  Neither Bernanke nor Yellen can predict the economy even if it hit them in the face with a brick. All they can do is look at past data and say “Oh, look, according to this data recession started in Q4 of 2007”. What a waste of time and money.  

Second, they will always be behind the ball. They will always be a reactionary force as opposed to market makers. Take today’s environment for example. They are cutting QE and talking about raising the interest rates at exactly the wrong time. The damage from their crazy liquidity party has already been done. The worst thing they can do now is cut it. The faster they do it the faster the markets will collapse.  

Why is any of this important?

Well, if you rely on FED to make money in the stock market and/or run your own business it becomes incredibly important. As such, no one should rely on any action by the FED as an investment indicator. It is as simple as that.

This brings us to financial markets and my premise that financial markets behave exactly as they should. Many people would argue that it was the FED’s actions that put the bottom in at the March of 2009 juncture, ensuring a subsequent and massive stock market rally.

WRONG.

Don’t confuse cause and effect. It was the market that made the FED’s look good and not the other way around. The market was structured to bottom on March 6th, 2009 at 6,469 and then have a subsequent 5-year market rally. It was the mid-cycle bottom (half point of bear market) and I predicted it as early as January of that year. I was 1 day and 100 points away. Close enough. I know I have shown this chart before, but let’s take another look.

Long Term Dow Structure35

If you perform the type of 3-dimensional analysis that I do you would know that the move between 2003 bottom and 2009 bottom would be IDENTICAL to the move between 1994 bottom and 2002 bottom. And so it was, exhibiting a variance of 22 3-dimensional units (equivalent to a few trading days or 100 points).

Any analyst working with this information would know that as soon as 2007 top was confirmed that the next move down would be exactly 8,130 3-dimensional units. Once the market developed further, the same analyst would be able to pin point the exact bottom with amazing precision and that is what I want you to understand without a shadow of a doubt. The stock market is not volatile or random, it is exact and precise.

Same thing applies to today’s market. In last week’s forecast I identified a turning point in February. While I am not yet at liberty to discuss this turning point (available to premium subscribers only), it clearly explains the market action we have witnessed over the last couple of days. By concentrating on mathematics and 3-dimensional analysis one can pick out turning points with a precision of a surgeon.

It is just my hope that the points above will force you to re-examine your reliance on the FED while eliminating your sense of false security. 

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Warning: The US Economy Is Flying Blind…About To Crash Google

Did Bernanke Predict The Stock Market Crash?

bernanke meme

AP Writes: Bernanke likens ’08 financial crisis to car crash

WASHINGTON (AP) — In his final public appearance as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke took a moment to reflect on the 2008 financial crisis and compared it to surviving a bad car crash.

During an interview Thursday at the Brookings Institution, Bernanke recalled some “very intense periods” during the crisis, similar to trying to keep a car from going over a bridge after a collision.

The government had just taken over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lehman Brothers had collapsed. He recalled some sleepless nights working with others to try and contain the damage.

“If you’re in a car wreck or something, you’re mostly involved in trying to avoid going off the bridge. And then, later on, you say, ‘Oh my God!'” Bernanke said.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

An innocent car crash Mr. Bernanke? Just an accident? I guess that’s one way to look at it. There is another. How about getting so drunk that you drive your car into a pole.  

Of course, the above is an analogy for using entirely too much credit to propel our financial system and our underlying economy right after the Tech crash. As we know, that led to the housing bubble, the stock market bubble and the credit market bubble that all blew up in 2007-09. Now, you can’t blame Mr. Bernanke for that. For the most part, another “brilliant economist” under the name of Mr. Greenspan was responsible for the financial collapse we have all suffered during that time.

You can, however, blame Mr. Bernanke for what happened between 2007 and today. It seems like he took Mr. Greenspan’s playbook, squared it and then multiplied it by 100. By pumping a tremendous amount of credit into the system since the market meltdown of 2007-09 Mr. Bernanke upped the ante for any reasonable resolution to our current financial issues.

Make no mistake………..the current stock market, real estate and economic recovery has very little to do with the underlying fundamental economy and everything to do with massive infusion of credit into the financial system by the FED.

It is a speculative illusion at best. When the credit card is finally maxed out, there will be hell to pay. Based on my mathematical work we are just a few short months away from the start of the bear leg. Get yourself ready.

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Obama Dreams Of Bubbles

Reuters Writes: Obama: Fed chair will prevent asset bubbles, focus on jobs

 obama bernanke investwithalex

(Reuters) – President Barack Obama said on Wednesday the person he selects to head the Federal Reserve when Chairman Ben Bernanke’s term ends in January will prevent asset bubbles from forming and try to bring down the unemployment rate.

“They’re going to be making sure that they keep an eye on inflation, that they’re not encouraging some of the bubbles that we’ve seen in our economy that have resulted in busts,” Obama said in an interview on CNBC.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Ummmm, President Obama, I have very bad news for you.  If you want the Fed Chairman to prevent asset bubbles, it might be a little too late.

As of right now, we are in the……wait for it…….wait for it………LEGENDARY & EPIC credit bubble, the likes of which the human kind has never seen before. It is an experiment in speculative finance on a massive and global scale.  And yes, you are, Chairman Bernanke/Greenspan and the rest of the US Government are to blame for it.

This credit finance bubble is so massive that it encompasses many smaller ones. They include but are not limited to the real estate bubble, student debt bubble, stock market bubble, bond bubble, corporate debt bubble, car sales bubble and the list goes on.  There is no question that one way or another we will have to pay for it. Whether it blows up or slowly deflates, the economic pain associated with it will be severe.

What troubles me the most is that our officials Obama/Bernanke/Government are either complete idiots who do not understand simple economics (by making the statements above) or they are very good liars.  I leave that for you to decide. 

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Why Happy Fingers Bernanke Can’t Sleep At Night

BusinessWeek Writes: Slow Job Growth Suggests Fed Was Right to Delay Taper

 bernanke meme

The private sector added 166,000 jobs in September,  fewer than most economists predicted, according to the ADP Research Institute’s monthly tally. ADP (ADP) also revised August’s jobs number down to 159,000 from 176,000.

The September number’s not bad—it’s right in line with the 2013 monthly average of 167,000. But it’s certainly not evidence of a labor market that’s picking up steam.

“The ADP report suggests the Fed was right to delay the tapering of its monthly asset purchases last month,” Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note this morning.

Read The Rest Of The Article

Here is the bottom line. Happy fingers Bernanke will keep playing with his keyboard as he continues to print $85 Billion of QE per month. That is not even a question. I do not believe they will tapper anytime soon if at all. This is not the real issue here.

The really scary issue is that the QE is having very little impact on the overall economy.  The velocity of the QE money has slowed down so much that it is almost a non issue. 

Imagine a car engine that is stuck on 2000 rpm no matter how much gas or even jet fuel you supply the engine with. No matter what you add to the tank, the engine can’t go over 2000 rpm. What’s worse, after a while it start to sputter and eventually dies.  

You have that picture in mind? Well, that is an accurate representation of the US Economy.  EQ is no longer having an impact. As such, they can’t even consider stopping it now. 

Yet, the worst is yet to come. The economy is now starting to sputter even with QE. When that accelerates the downshift and the subsequent stock market and economic declines will be severe. 

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