7/27/2015 – Another negative day with the Dow Jones down 128 points (-0.73%) and the Nasdaq down 49 points (-0.96%)
I think I might have found a “100% sure bet” investment strategy. Just do the complete opposite of what Dennis Gartman is doing or saying. For instance……..
- On July 17th he issued the following call….. You’d be a ‘fool’ to short the market: Gartman The market topped out the following trading day. It appears I was one of those fools.
- And today, Dennis Gartman: It’s ugly out there We’re closer to a top than a bottom, says Gartman.
Seriously….which one is it Mr. Gartman? How can anyone make money by jumping between short-term extremes. At least for now the stock market is oversold and warrants some sort of a bounce. Will we get one? That is yet to be seen, but it would be smart to at least prepare for one. In other words, you might be a fool to go short here.
On a more serious note, it appears the overall stock market is dying a slow death.
S&P 500 Propped Up by Just 2 Sectors Shows Bull Market Aging
More than 100 percent of this year’s increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
We have been talking about exactly this for quite a while. And you don’t have to look further than NYSE (largest index by capitalization) to understand today’s market setup in its entirety. Here is what it is.
- The NYSE hasn’t gone anywhere in over 13 months and is now down 3-4%.
- That means the market is either building a massive base from which to start a multi-year bull run or it is distributing before a massive leg down.
- Since Shiller’s P/E is at 27 (3rd highest level on record – right behind 1929 and 2000 tops) it is fairly easy to guess which way the market will break. .
Finally, with only a few highly speculative companies supporting the entire tech sector, it is not looking good. No QE, slowing earnings, interest rate hikes, no CAPEX, no liquidity etc….. I am having a very difficult time imagining what would save this market at this juncture. An outright miracle? Friendly aliens landing on the White House lawn? I honestly don’t know what that would be.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. July 27th, 2015 InvestWithAlex.com
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