According to CNBC and Jim Paulsen the US economy is on fire. No surprise there.
“We’re just getting the spring thaw, and we’re going to get better numbers,” Paulsen said on “ Squawk on the Street .” “If you look aggregately at the economy it’s been awful good. The market is going to pay more attention to the economic reports out right on the ground, outside their windshield, than it is through the rearview mirror at an earnings season that everyone knows was highly distorted by the weather,” Paulsen said.
Unfortunately, Mr. Paulsen suffers from a case of mass delusion. While the economy might look good on the surface, it is anything but. Again, most of the economic growth we have seen over the last few years has been driven by a massive amount of speculative credit infused into our economy by the FED. A lot of it flowing directly into the real estate and the stock market to cause massive asset bubbles. Further, our mathematical and timing work does not share in the optimism. It clearly shows that a severe bear market of 2014-2017 is just around the corner. I have a funny feeling that Mr. Paulsen will see the S&P at 1,200 before he sees it at 2,000
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The US Economy Is On Fire. Stocks About To Surge Lower? Google
CNBC: This pushes S&P toward 2,000: Jim Paulsen
Economic growth has picked up as business activity thaws out from a frigid winter, investment strategist Jim Paulsen told CNBC on Monday, and that could push Wall Street past the recent volatility and into record highs.
Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, said he believes the U.S. economy is growing at a 4 percent clip in the second quarter of 2014. The Commerce Department will release GDP estimates for 2014’s first quarter at the end of the month. Paulsen said the pickup in economic activity will boost the S&P 500 (INDEX:^GSPC – News) past an all-time high of 1,900 and toward 2,000 points.
“We’re just getting the spring thaw, and we’re going to get better numbers,” Paulsen said on “ Squawk on the Street .” “If you look aggregately at the economy it’s been awful good.”
Economic conditions will hold more weight than the flood of earning reports hitting Wall Street this week, Paulsen said. The biggest factor coming out of earnings season will be forecasts, he added.
“The market is going to pay more attention to the economic reports out right on the ground, outside their windshield, than it is through the rearview mirror at an earnings season that everyone knows was highly distorted by the weather,” Paulsen said.
The department is scheduled to release the advance second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30.
Paulsen added that the boost stocks receive from the strengthening economy could turn into too much of good thing. The Federal Reserve could find itself fighting inflation as bond yields rise and as Wall Street deals with a “mini-overheat panic,” he said.
“Before the year is out, we’re going to bring the Fed back into the equation in a big way,” Paulsen said. “What’s going to do that is economic growth. … There’s a part of me that thinks we’re stirring an overheat cocktail here.”
On the other hand, UBS’ senior vice president of investments, Jim Lacamp, told CNBC the economy may end this year where it started, at around 2.5 percent growth.
“The economy to me is not a runaway economy,” Lacamp said during a later appearance on “Squawk on the Street.” “It seems to be more of a runaway bride economy. Every year we get some promise in the economy and everybody’s optimistic. And then by the end of the year we end up right where we were.”
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Lacamp believes the markets could still end the year higher. Though he warned investors to remain wary over a variety of factors: rising prices, a poor earnings season so far and stagnant wage growth.
“I don’t want to sound too negative,” Lacamp said. “I think the market goes higher by the end of the year, but over the next several months we’ve got a lot to work through economically.”