Tag: fed

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Fed Warns: Much Higher Interest Rates In 2016

I will give Janet Yellen one thing. She has been consistent with her haircut. 

As the article below indicates, a lot of people anticipate the FED to start raising interest rates around 2015-2016. Not going to happen. If anything, the FED will be cutting interest rates (if there is anything to cut) and flooding the market with cheap credit….again. Here is why. 

As I have already illustrated, a number of times, the FED is a reactionary force and not a market maker. For instance, Bernanke was worried about the housing acceleration and thought the economy was doing great as late as Q2 of 2008. Mind you, the recession was already in full swing at that juncture. What FEDs analysis of today’s market environment is rather simple. They see the continuation of today’s expansion for the foreseeable future. Even thought most of it has been driven by their own credit and speculation. 

As my mathematical and timing work indicates, we are on a verge of a severe Bear Market that will play out between 2014-2017. During this time the US Economy will slip back into a recession, leaving the FED with no option but to cut interest rates again. If you would like to know exactly when the bear market will start as well as it’s internal composition (all the ups/downs within the bear market) as well as where it’s going to complete….please CLICK HERE. 

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Fed Warns: Much Higher Interest Rates In 2016 Google

The Federal Reserve isn’t going to tell us when it expects to start raising interest rates. It isn’t going to draw a line in the sands of economic data – a minimum unemployment rate, a minimum rate of inflation. It’s done with all of that.

But the Fed is preserving another window on its plans. Since 2012, it has published the expectations of its senior officials about the year of the first Fed funds rate increase. It is scheduled to publish the latest batch of forecasts on Wednesday afternoon.

And those forecasts are likely to carry the same message as the latest round of changes in the Fed’s policy statement: Settle in. This is going to take a little explaining.

This chart from BNP Paribas shows the evolution of the forecasts. (There are 19 seats on the Federal Open Market Committee, but there have been vacancies at some meetings, so the chart gives percentages rather than counting heads.)

A majority of Fed officials has bet on 2015 since September 2012 — the month when the Fed changed its policy statement to read, “Exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.”

When the Fed replaced that guidance just a few months later with an economic target – 6.5 percent unemployment – Ben S. Bernanke, who was then the chairman, was at pains to emphasize the timetable had not changed. And the dots did not move.

Lately, however, the number of Fed officials betting on 2016 has been rising, and it seems likely to rise again on Wednesday. Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, walked into the 2016 camp earlier this month.

The BNP chart reflects that move; other analysts say a larger shift is possible.

“We believe that Chair Yellen is probably one of the 2016 dots,” Sven Jari Stehn, a Goldman Sachs economist, wrote in a recent analysis. “If that is true, other participants, especially the governors, might decide to shift in her direction.”

The Fed is dismantling its stimulus campaign – arguably it has been retreating for almost a year now, since Mr. Bernanke roiled financial markets last summer – but the slow drift of the forecast is a reminder that it is moving very slowly.

The Fed may reinforce that message on Wednesday by emphasizing in its statement that even when it does start to raise rates, that too will happen very slowly.

Finally, it’s worth looking at one other part of the forecast. Fed officials are also asked to predict the long-run level of interest rates – basically, to define normal. Before the recession, normal was about 4 percent. But in recent forecasts, a growing number of officials – four in September, six in December – have predicted that interest rates will not return all the way to 4 percent. They’re basically saying this recovery won’t just take a very long time, but that it will remain incomplete.

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What I Would Like To Hear From The FED Chair Yellen

Earlier today Daily Ticker published an article “What markets want to hear from Fed Chair Yellen this week” (see below). Because you know, whatever lies come out of her mouth will determine what the stock market will do and/or what path the economy will take. What a bunch of nonsense. Here is what I would like to hear come out of her mouth.

Dear American People,

Since 1987, myself,  Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke worked tirelessly to destroy the American economy. Instead of following prudent monetary policy we flooded our markets with massive amounts of cheap credit every chance we got in 1994, 1998, 2001-06, 2008-today. We worked overtime to blow bubble after bubble to give a perception that the US Economy is doing great. We thought that by simply adding more credit into the system we could swipe all of the bad debt and zombie businesses under the carpet in order to continue rapid economic growth. Yet, it didn’t work. Instead of fixing the system, we have distorted to an extent unimaginable just 10 years ago.  

Particularly, our efforts backfired when instead of inflation and dollar devaluation we ended up in a credit default deflationary environment. An environment where we have destroyed the middle class for the benefit of the “Top 1%”. Now, there is no way out. We will have to go through a lot of economic pain to work such imbalances out of our economic system. I am truly sorry about this.  

That’s what I would like to hear. We can all dream….right? 

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What I Would Like To Hear From The FED Chair Yellen  Google

What markets want to hear from Fed Chair Yellen this week

Federal Reserve watchers are expecting the Federal Open Market Committee to announce an additional taper of $10 billion to its monthly bond-buying program Wednesday. The Fed started to reduce its bond purchases in January as it gauged the economy to be strong enough to withstand the move.

Janet Yellen will also answer reporters’ questions Wednesday in her first press conference as Fed Chair since taking over from Ben Bernanke in February. She does not want to “rock the boat” says BNP economist Julia Coronado, and will likely signal that the Fed has no intention of altering course as it gradually reins in the stimulus program known as “quantitative easing.” The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to above $4.1 trillion as a result of its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, up from $869 billion in August 2007.

Like other economists, Coronado says the Fed may also reduce the threshold it has set for beginning to raise short-term interest rates. The Fed has linked that to a jobless rate of 6.5% or so. But the unemployment rate has already fallen to 6.7%, and with the Fed likely to keep rates close to 0 into 2015, an adjustment in the target rate seems necessary.

Related: Jobs better-than-expected but “the labor market is still weak”: NYT’s Greenhouse

“The Fed will abandon those numerical thresholds,” Coronado explains in the video above. “At least half of the decline in the unemployment rate is due to falling labor participation, a sign of weakness.” But the jobs report was not the “decisive factor” in the change, she adds.

“The Fed never reacts to just one data point and it’s willing to look through a lot of the weakness we’ve seen in hiring and other data reflective of the severe winter weather,” Coronado says.

Even as the Fed further reduces its stimulus program, Coronado argues that $55 billion in monthly bond purchases is “still a lot of money” to inject into the economy. That stimulus will keep the markets “resilient” and prolong higher interest rates for a lot longer.

What will Yellen’s first press conference be like? Watch the video to find out!

 

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Warning: Is Federal Reserve Out Of Ammo?

As the article below indicates, absolutely. There is very little they can do going forward. With real interest rates being in the negative territory and QE losing it’s credit velocity, there very little the FED can do to aid our financial markets and the US Economy. Particularly, with the onset of the bear market of 2014-2017 the FED will be powerless to “re-inflate” our markets and the economy as fast as they did at 2009 bottom. If at all.

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Warning: Is Federal Reserve Out Of Ammo?  Google

The Federal Reserve gets a lot of credit for what passes as an economic recovery. Whether it deserves that credit, going forward the Fed has very little power to influence events because it is essentially out of ammo to further ease. The economy, meanwhile, is still lackluster, despite the central bank’s unjustified optimism.

The Fed cast a warm and fuzzy glow in January, when it predicted a pickup in economic growth, which it cited as its rationale for tapering its bond buying campaign, called quantitative easing (QE). And if that acceleration doesn’t happen in the near future?

Don’t worry: Wall Street will just shift its predictions for a growth resurgence to the second half of the year, as it’s done every year since about 2005 — if memory serves correctly. At this time of year, the Street always says that things will get better in the second half.

The revision of fourth-quarter 2013 gross domestic product growth of 2.8% is not enough of a reason to reverse the Fed’s QE policy, which seems to have less and less effect on the real economy, according to the central bank’s own research. The Fed says it will gradually taper its monthly bond buying, most likely ending it altogether late in the year. But the Fed’s new chief,Janet Yellen, adds that it reserves the right to change course and increase the purchases if the economy dips.

If the current first quarter does end up with say, 1.5% GDP growth, the bad weather in much of the nation will be a factor. But the weather effect is still amorphous enough not to reverse course. Once winter fades, there will inevitably be a rebound effect, so the bank may have to wait until the third quarter before it feels comfortable saying anything about the true core rate of growth (although it probably will cut its 2014 forecast by the June meeting).

Keep in mind that the only easing tools the Fed has left are forward guidance – its practice, through issuing forecasts of its policy intentions, of influencing market behavior – and more QE. It can’t run about ramping up money printing for every bump in the road. Its bond purchases succeeded in raising asset prices by progressively upping the ante each time; that option isn’t available anymore, not when the price tag is the Fed’s bloated balance sheet already on its way to $5 trillion. Also, 2014 is a mid-term election year, and I suspect that the Fed governors would really like to be out of the program entirely come November.

Finally, as dovish as Yellen and the others may want to be, there are a couple of realities confronting the bank. One is the lack of ammunition for any crisis that might pop up before the current QE program is back to zero again. QE is partly a psychological effect, and backing out of tapering it in mid-stream is likely to induce considerable anxiety after the initial euphoria wears off.

The other is the nature of the Fed’s charter. Quantitative easing was predicated from the beginning on improving employment, a goal handed to the bank in the 1970s by the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. The unemployment rate, now 6.6%, is unlikely to rise anytime soon, given that unemployment is a lagging indicator. So far as the business cycle goes, it is one of the last parts to decline. A resumption of QE after a weak GDP report and a Fed prediction that unemployment might worsen would be politically lethal – the central bank is only as independent as Congress says it is.

The economy hasn’t shown any signs whatsoever of accelerating to a sustained 3% growth rate. The recovery from the Great Recession has been choppy, with one quarter’s surge followed by a weaker performance. Fourth-quarter 2012 growth slipped to a mere 0.1%, for example. Temporary growth surges sometimes occur, due to sporadic influences like the inventory-restocking episode from last year, when this sudden and unexpected increase helped propel the third-quarter gain to 4.1%.

I couldn’t believe my ears on Thursday when I saw a fellow on CNBC say with a straight face “well, the economy really is getting better this year.” The economy is only getting better on the same basis it’s gotten better the last five years – somewhere over the rainbow.

The current stock market rebound is getting stretched: The Standard & Poor’s 500 has nearly reclaimed its January peak, while the Nasdaq is making new post-2000 highs. All of that in spite of some pretty weak data recently, such as the housing sector’s downbeat results. The National Association of Realtors says January existing home sales slumped 5.1%, which it ascribed to poor weather, and rising home prices and mortgage rates.

That said, equities could still squeak out mild gains ahead, after a breather here and there. I’ve talked about a first-quarter top for stocks since the beginning of the year, and my prediction is still intact. But it still appears to me to be a top to sell, not to buy.

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What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy

Don’t get me wrong, I was always against the QE. However, now that they have got the patient thoroughly addicted to credit any attempt to withdraw it would have severe negative consequences on our financial markets and the overall US Economy. Right on schedule I might add. 

In a blunt comment, Charles Evans president of the Chicago FED made it as clear as one could that the FED will continue to cut its QE $10 Billion per meeting for the foreseeable future. While I applaud this step, the consequences of their action will have a devastating effect on our financial markets. As I illustrated a number of times before, the FED is a reactionary force that is always behind a ball. It will not be different this time around.

Now that they have distorted most of the markets through infusing over $1 Trillion in credit, taking away the proverbial punch ball would be identical to getting a strung out heroin addict to quit cold turkey.  Rest assured, a massive seizure for the US Economy and financial markets is in order. Our timing work confirms the same. 

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What You Ought To Know About The FED’s Plan To Collapse The Economy Google

COLUMBUS, Georgia (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will continue to trim its monthly asset purchases at a $10 billion pace, an influential Fed official said on Monday as he also detailed how the U.S. central bank might rewrite its plan for keeping interest rates low.

The blunt comments from Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed and among the most dovish U.S. policymakers, were perhaps the strongest indication yet that the Fed will keep cutting stimulus at each upcoming meeting, including one next week.

“We’re at a point now where we’re … moving away from purchasing assets, we’re tapering, and our balance sheet continues to be very large but we’re not going to add to it as much,” Evans told a gathering at Columbus State University.

“The last two meetings we reduced the purchase flow rate by $10 billion and we’re going to continue to do that,” he said flatly.

The Fed, responding to a broad drop in unemployment and a pick-up in economic growth, is now buying $65 billion in bonds each month to reduce longer-term borrowing costs and stimulate investment and hiring. The stimulus program started in 2012 and continued until December 2013, at a $85-billion pace.

With the bond buying winding down, the Fed’s more immediate challenge is re-writing a pledge to keep rates near zero until well after the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. Because joblessness has fallen quickly to 6.7 percent, policymakers are debating how to adjust that pledge without giving the impression they will tighten policy any time soon.

The Fed could make the delicate change at a policy-setting meeting March 18-19, which will be Janet Yellen’s first as chair.

Evans is credited with conceiving the idea of tying interest rates to economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation. On Monday, he said the new guidance should reinforce that rates will stay low for “quite some time” and that much will depend on continued improvement in the labor market.

“It ought to be something that captures well the fact that (rates are) going to continue to be low well past the time that we change the language,” Evans told reporters after giving a speech.

“Tick through the different labor market indicators: payroll employment, unemployment, labor force, vacancies, job openings and things like that,” he continued. “We somehow want to capture that general improvement in labor market indicators, but that is hard.”

Evans added that the Fed will be accommodative “for really quite some time,” and added that he expects the first rate rise to come around early 2016.

Looking deeper into the future, he said the Fed would not have to sell the mortgage-based bonds it is now buying up, but could instead let them mature – an idea endorsed by other Fed policymakers.

After five years of purchases in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession, the central bank’s balance sheet has swollen to more than $4 trillion.

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The FED Continues To Impress With Stupidity

In another point of reference that, once again, proves without a shadow of a doubt that the FED doesn’t know what is happening within our economy and our financial markets, the FED is talking about accelerating tightening.  Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

You see, most of the damage from their loose monetary policy since 2008-09 has already been done. They have already distorted most of the markets to the 10th degree and with speculation running rampant, the worst thing they can do now is to stop or tighten. Doing so will collapse all markets.

Believe it or not, even though markets are surging higher and the economy seems to be doing better, we are on a verge of a vicious bear market and a deep recession within our economy. That is based on my mathematical and timing work. In fact, it would be wise to be liquidating all of your long positions as we speak.  You can read an in depth report on this matter HERE. If you would like to know the exact structure of the upcoming bear market, please CLICK HERE. 

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The FED Continues To Impress With Stupidity Google

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(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve may find its monetary policies quickly becoming overly easy if it sticks to the current pace of reductions to its bond-buying program in the face of a growing U.S. economy, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

“If the economy continues to improve, we could find ourselves still trying to increase accommodation in an environment in which history suggests that policy should perhaps be moving in the opposite direction,” Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

“Reducing the pace of asset purchases in measured steps is moving in the right direction, but the pace may leave us well behind the curve if the economy continues to play out according to the (Fed’s) forecasts.”

Since the onset of the Great Recession and throughout the more than four years since its end, Fed has kept interest rates near zero and has bought trillions of dollars of long-term assets in order to suppress borrowing costs and boost investment and hiring.

Late last year, in a nod to the improving economic and labor market outlook, the U.S. central bank took its first step toward easing up on the monetary gas pedal by trimming its current round of bond buying and signaling it could end purchases altogether later this year.

But the hawkish head of the Philadelphia Fed worries the wind-down will take too long, if, as he expects, the economy grows about 3 percent in 2014, pushing down the jobless rate to at least 6.2 percent by the end of this year and “plausibly” even below 6 percent.

Plosser’s forecast for growth falls squarely inside the 2.8 percent to 3.2 percent forecast range from the majority of Fed officials.

“As the expansion gains traction, the challenge will be to reduce accommodation and to normalize policy in a way that ensures that inflation remains close to our target, that the economy continues to grow, and that we avoid sowing the seeds of another financial crisis,” Plosser said.

“While there continues to be some downside risk to growth, for the first time in years, I see the potential for more upside risk to the economic outlook. We need to consider this possibility as we calibrate monetary policy.”

The economy grew at a 2.4 percent pace last quarter, and recent soft economic data suggests growth may have since slowed. But Plosser cautioned against reading too much into recent weakness, chalking most of it up to severe winter weather.

That’s a view shared by many at the Fed.

Most investors expect the central bank to look past the soft data and continue to reduce its bond-buying program by $10 billion per month at each meeting, setting it on course to end the program before the year is out. The Fed next meets to discuss policy in less than two weeks.

But Plosser, who votes this year on the Fed’s policy-setting meeting and is among the most hawkish of the nation’s central bankers, wants to ratchet back super-easy policies more rapidly than most of his colleagues.

Unlike many of his colleagues, who predict it could take years for inflation to return to normal levels, Plosser said Thursday he sees upside risks to inflation, now languishing at just above half of the Fed’s 2-percent target.

Plosser also called for the Fed to remake its guidance to markets for how long it will keep rates low, because the current promise, to keep them low until well beyond the time the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent, has lost any usefulness.

The U.S. unemployment rate stands at 6.6 percent.

He reiterated his view that the Fed should strive to follow monetary policy rules, reduce its reliance on discretionary decisions, and pull back from the aggressive intervention that has marked its actions since the financial crisis.

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?

stupid economist investwithalex

 

Reuters Writes: Fed’s Evans: Optimistic 2014 will be the year economy takes off

CORALVILLE, Iowa, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday said he’s optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year the economy “takes off,” adding that monetary policy must remain accommodative for it to do so.

Wait a second. The economy hasn’t “Taken Off” yet? I am confused. If you listen to the financial media “propaganda machine”, most investment advisors and money managers, even our own president, the economy is doing great. The stock market is up over 100% in the last 5 years and everyone is getting rich.

Of course, such statements are viewed as fallacy on the main street.  For most people, things haven’t improved. If anything, they have gotten a lot worse. The reason you are seeing “perceived” improvements has nothing to do with the real economic growth and everything to do with speculation and corruption.

Yes, corruption. If you want someone to blame, there is only one place you need to point your finger. At the US Government and the FED. They have pumped our economy full of hot air in the form of credit and speculation.

That is not without cost. Eventually, our economy and our capital markets will have to readjust themselves. When they do, there will be hell to pay. As my earlier posts indicate, the bear market is about to start and when it does, we shall once again see who is swimming naked.

At least for me, only one mystery remains.  Are the FED officials (as above) good liars or are they just plain stupid. Judging on what they did to the economy thus far, I am leaning towards the later.     

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?  

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Warning: New FED’s Chairman Janet Yellen Is A Lying Idiot

Bloomberg Writes: Yellen Signals Continued QE Undeterred by Bubble Risk

janet yellen investwithalex

Janet Yellen indicated she’ll press on with the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary stimulus until she sees a robust recovery, downplaying risks the policy is inflating asset bubbles.

“I don’t see evidence at this point, in major sectors of asset prices, misalignments,” she said yesterday during her confirmation hearing to be the next Fed chairman. “Although there is limited evidence of reach for yield, we don’t see a broad buildup in leverage, where the development of risks that I think at this stage poses a risk to financial stability.”

Yellen signaled her determination to use bond buying to strengthen the economy and drive down the nation’s 7.3 percent unemployment rate.

Read The Rest Of The Article

Janet Yellen is either a lying idiot who doesn’t understand economics  or she is just a lying idiot. Why? For a couple very simple reasons.

First,  anyone with a keen understanding of today’s economic environment would run away from this job. Only a fool without an understanding of where we are in the economic cycle would take it. Let’s put it this way. Would you take a job as a CEO of the company that seems to be doing fine, but you know is massively cooking its books? You know the company is essentially insolvent and the truth will come out shortly. You also know that if you take this job you would be blamed for the upcoming collapse. Would you take that job? Of course you WOULDN’T.  You don’t need that in your life. So, Janet Yellen either has an overinflated ego where she believes she can control and manipulate financial market OR she simply doesn’t understand today’s economic environment. Either way, its not a good start.

Second, she signaled further stimulus by pumping even more money into the economy if need be and stated “I don’t see evidence at this point, in major sectors of asset prices, misalignment”.  Well, there is so many things wrong here that I don’t know where to begin. As I have said before, we are in the largest financial bubble the history has ever seen.  Surely the FED’s see it, yet they continue to lie for the sake of stability. Yet, such stability can only exist until the markets have their first seizure. Thereafter, relative stability will translate into massive volatility.

The best thing about financial markets is that they teach all idiots a lesson. I was one of those idiots once, but now it’s Janel Yellen’s turn.  I wish you luck Janet. The bear market of 2014-2017 (as per my timing work) will teach you a valuable lesson. 

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Shocking Federal Reserve Admition…..We Are Destroying The US Economy

Business Insider Writes: Fed Official Who Helped Orchestrate QE: ‘I’m Sorry, America,’ QE Really Was A Huge Wall Street Bailout

 QE-investwithalex

Andrew Huszar, a former Federal Reserve employee who executed QE, has written a Wall Street Journal op-ed apologizing for the “unprecedented shopping spree.”

Huszar worked at the Fed for seven years before leaving for Wall Street. The central bank recruited him back in 2009 to manage “what  was at the heart of QE’s bond-buying spree–a wild attempt to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds in 12 months.”

“I can only say: I’m sorry, America,” Huszar writes. From the Journal:

It wasn’t long before my old doubts resurfaced. Despite the Fed’s rhetoric, my program wasn’t helping to make credit any more accessible for the average American. The banks were only issuing fewer and fewer loans. More insidiously, whatever credit they were extending wasn’t getting much cheaper. QE may have been driving down the wholesale cost for banks to make loans, but Wall Street was pocketing most of the extra cash.

Now the only obsession seemed to be with the newest survey of financial-market expectations or the latest in-person feedback from Wall Street’s leading bankers and hedge-fund managers. Sorry, U.S. taxpayer.

Huszar argues that QE, while “dutifully compensating for the rest of Washington’s dysfunction,” has become Wall Street’s new “too big to fail.”

There you go everyone. In this stunning admission Mr. Huszar clearly confirms everything that I have been talking about on this blog. Basically, the FED’s are destroying the US Economy at the expense of the middle class and for the benefit of the wealthy, the banks and the Wall Street.

I know what you are thinking.  At the initial glance the strategy seems to be working. After all, the economy “seems” to be doing fine and while the unemployment is still relatively high, it is getting better. The stock market is hitting all time highs and the future looks bright.  However, such a positive view is highly distorted.  It is equivalent to smoking crack and claiming that you feel great.  Certainly you would, but only for a short while. Should you continue the behavior you will eventually die.  

The US Economy and its entire financial system is in the same situation. Things seem fine,  but that’s just a temporary illusion. As my timing work indicates, the economy and our financial markets will begin to have deadly seizures in early 2014. 

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Federal Reserve Pledges More Stupidity

The Washington Post Writes: Federal Reserve considers explicit pledge: Low rates if inflation stays down

bernanke meme

The Federal Reserve is leaning toward an explicit commitment to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels, as long as inflation remains low.

The pledge would be an attempt to strengthen assurance that the central bank will not tap the brakes on the recovery until it is certain that the momentum can be sustained. The Fed already has vowed not to raise rates — a move that would slow economic growth — at least until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent or inflation rises above 2.5 percent.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

There are a couple of things in this article that drive me up the wall.

  • We are not in an inflationary environment,  we are in a deflationary environment. The only reason you we are seeing inflation in certain parts of the economy is due to the FED printing a massive amounts of money ($85 Billion/monthly) and dumping it into the financial system by keeping interest rates artificially low. If that wasn’t happening we would already see clear signs of deflation.
  • The FED is punishing savers and true economic growth by keeping interest rates too low for far too long. All while developing significant economic imbalances that will have to be deflated at a later date.  The situation is made worse by creating an environment where only people with access to cheap financing benefit. At the same time the US poverty rate is at all time high or close to 50 Million people. 
  • The article assumes that the FED is in complete control of interest rates. At least for now everyone believes that. Yet, nothing could be further from the truth. While the FED can influence the rates, it cannot control it. The market controls the rates. 

This in return presents a trading opportunity for those who think otherwise. Eventually the interest rates will move independent of the FED and destroy the whole scheme in the process.

When will it happen?

Actually, it might be already happening as interest rates already up 100% over the last 12 months. Is the FED finally losing control? I hope so. In the long run it would be great for the US Economy. 

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