Tag: Bear Market

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Why Do You Hate Me?

bear market investwithalex

It’s hard to be a bear. No one likes bears.  Here are the top 10 signs that you might be a bear hater as well. 

  1. You define a bear who got it wrong simply as “An idiot”.
  2. You define a bear who got it right as “An idiot who got lucky.”
  3. Short squeezes give you a hard on.
  4. When you go to Russia you always order a Grilled Bear Steak.
  5. You can’t stop laughing when Mr. Market mauls all the bears.
  6. You secretly wish that Mr. Bernanke would round up all the bears and ship them to where they belong….. Siberia.
  7. You think that throwing bears out of airplanes should be an Olympic sport. 
  8. When up in the mountains you steal “Slow Down For Bears” signs and replace them with “No Speed Limit” signs. 
  9. You believe all bears are communists. 
  10. You believe bear mafia controls the toilet paper market.

This goes to all the bears out there. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Why Do You Hate Me? 

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Bears In Lamborghinis

bear in lamborghiniI remember 2006 very well. I was going around telling people the following,  “Listen guys, this is unsustainable, this market is in a crazy bubble driven primarily by mortgage finance and it will blow up soon”.   Most didn’t care and those who did called me “Boy who cried wolf”.

Fair enough. I decided to take matters into my own hands by shorting subprime mortgage lenders and multiple other real estate related companies that I believed are nothing more than a pile of stinky (but worthless) mortgage paper. Yet, the companies kept going up throughout 2006 and early 2007. Not only going up, they kept surging up like they were the best investments in the world. This was before my timing work and I was feeling miserable. My research was 100% accurate, yet the market was going the other way.  When these stocks did finally collapse in the summer of 2008, they have collapsed within weeks. With one stock price going from as high as $87 to as low as ZERO (filed for bankruptcy) in 11 trading days. I was vindicated, but it didn’t matter.

What’s the point of this story?

Even though I am currently a huge bear based on fundamental, macro and timing analysis, I do not currently hold a short position.  Quite the opposite. I am long the market, but solely based on my timing work.  My mathematical work clearly illustrates that a severe (3 year) bear market is starting in 2014 to complete in 2017. Before that happens, I feel the pain the bears are going through. Of course, they are right but they are suffering through the most difficult stage of all…. market blow off top.  This is the time where there are almost no bears left. Most of them have been killed.  Case and point.

S&P 500 Will Be at 2,000 Sooner Than You Think article that not only makes fun of the bears, but claims that everyone is bearish and that’s why S&P will hit 2000 soon. Well, maybe everyone is bearish if you can find any bears left. I don’t know of any. Even permabears have turned bullish.  

 

Perhaps he is talking about Carl Icahn who has turned bearish CARL ICAHN: The Stock Market Could See A ‘Big Drop’ And I’m ‘Very Cautious’

To moral of the story is this. With the market surging ever higher, this is the most difficult time to be a bear.  Every bear looks like a complete idiot and loser. Yet, as the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.  True bears who maintain their position at this time will soon be greatly rewarded.  So much so that every true bear will be able to afford a Lamborghini.   

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

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What You Ought To Know About Today’s Bull Orgy

Bloomberg Writes: Junk Glistens Under ‘Bernankecare’ as Worst Stocks Win

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Carl Giannone says he’s given up hunting for quality stocks. Now he’s simply riding the wave of upward momentum in the U.S. market. “It’s a game of musical chairs,” said Giannone, who manages an equities team at T3 Trading Group LLC in New York. “You just want to make sure you can sit down.”

The Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate turns five years old next month, the longest period without an increase in history. Coupled with more than $3 trillion of asset purchases, it adds up to “Bernankecare,” said Joshua Brown, chief executive officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York. And it’s causing parts of the market to behave strangely. Stocks of companies with weak balance sheets are rising twice as fast as stronger ones; junk borrowers get rates lower than their investment-grade counterparts did before the credit crisis; and initial public offerings are doubling on their first day of trading.

While in the minority, some investors say prices have climbed so high it’s possible to look ahead and see an ugly end.Laurence Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the biggest U.S. money manager, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Nov. 12 that he feared a bubble and the Fed ought to quit buying so many securities.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Have you ever seen a real bull orgy? I haven’t, but a fathom it would be a fairly gross site to feast your eyes upon. Luckily for you can see an artificial one by turning on CNBC or reading any other kind of financial media. Bulls are salivating over each other, predicting the DOW at 20,000, 25K, 50K, to infinity and beyond. It’s quite entertaining to watch.

The article above is right on the money. At this stage everything is in the speculative bubble that will pop and it has become a game of musical chairs. However, that is not why I bring this up. I want to point your attention to a psychological breakdown of market participants. We all know the saying “Buy Low Sell High” or “Buy When There Is Blood On The Streets”, yet not a single person I know actually does it. 

Case and point, March 2009 bottom. Not a single person I know, not on TV or elsewhere advocated buying. No, they were all talking about the end of the world, how low the market will go and what stocks to short best. The blood was running on the street, the stocks were being given away and these fools couldn’t see the forest through the trees. Now the situation is completely reversed. When everyone should be selling and/or going short, everyone is screaming BUY, BUY, BUY.  It’s a fools game and if you buy today you are that fool.  I guess human psychology, the primary driver behind the stock market, will never change.

With such a backdrop it is very nice to know exactly when the Bear leg of 2014-2017 will start and the damage it will do. While Bulls are busy having their orgy, the market is getting ready for a massive haircut. You have been warned. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

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Your Secret Invitation To The Bull Orgy. Please RSVP asap.

Bloomberg Writes: Junk Glistens Under ‘Bernankecare’ as Worst Stocks Win

bull orgy investwithalex

Carl Giannone says he’s given up hunting for quality stocks. Now he’s simply riding the wave of upward momentum in the U.S. market. “It’s a game of musical chairs,” said Giannone, who manages an equities team at T3 Trading Group LLC in New York. “You just want to make sure you can sit down.”

The Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate turns five years old next month, the longest period without an increase in history. Coupled with more than $3 trillion of asset purchases, it adds up to “Bernankecare,” said Joshua Brown, chief executive officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York. And it’s causing parts of the market to behave strangely. Stocks of companies with weak balance sheets are rising twice as fast as stronger ones; junk borrowers get rates lower than their investment-grade counterparts did before the credit crisis; and initial public offerings are doubling on their first day of trading.

While in the minority, some investors say prices have climbed so high it’s possible to look ahead and see an ugly end.Laurence Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., the biggest U.S. money manager, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Nov. 12 that he feared a bubble and the Fed ought to quit buying so many securities.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

Have you ever seen a real bull orgy? I haven’t, but a fathom it would be a fairly gross site to feast your eyes upon. Luckily for you can see an artificial one by turning on CNBC or reading any other kind of financial media. Bulls are salivating over each other, predicting the DOW at 20,000, 25K, 50K, to infinity and beyond. It’s quite entertaining to watch.

The article above is right on the money. At this stage everything is in the speculative bubble that will pop and it has become a game of musical chairs. However, that is not why I bring this up. I want to point your attention to a psychological breakdown of market participants. We all know the saying “Buy Low Sell High” or “Buy When There Is Blood On The Streets”, yet not a single person I know actually does it. 

Case and point, March 2009 bottom. Not a single person I know, not on TV or elsewhere advocated buying. No, they were all talking about the end of the world, how low the market will go and what stocks to short best. The blood was running on the street, the stocks were being given away and these fools couldn’t see the forest through the trees. Now the situation is completely reversed. When everyone should be selling and/or going short, everyone is screaming BUY, BUY, BUY.  It’s a fools game and if you buy today you are that fool.  I guess human psychology, the primary driver behind the stock market, will never change.

With such a backdrop it is very nice to know exactly when the Bear leg of 2014-2017 will start and the damage it will do. While Bulls are busy having their orgy, the market is getting ready for a massive haircut. You have been warned. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

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Carl Icahn Agrees, Every True Bear Will Get A Lamborghini

bear in lamborghiniI remember 2006 very well. I was going around telling people the following,  “Listen guys, this is unsustainable, this market is in a crazy bubble driven primarily by mortgage finance and it will blow up soon”.   Most didn’t care and those who did called me “Boy who cried wolf”.

Fair enough. I decided to take matters into my own hands by shorting subprime mortgage lenders and multiple other real estate related companies that I believed are nothing more than a pile of stinky (but worthless) mortgage paper. Yet, the companies kept going up throughout 2006 and early 2007. Not only going up, they kept surging up like they were the best investments in the world. This was before my timing work and I was feeling miserable. My research was 100% accurate, yet the market was going the other way.  When these stocks did finally collapse in the summer of 2008, they have collapsed within weeks. With one stock price going from as high as $87 to as low as ZERO (filed for bankruptcy) in 11 trading days. I was vindicated, but it didn’t matter.

What’s the point of this story?

Even though I am currently a huge bear based on fundamental, macro and timing analysis, I do not currently hold a short position.  Quite the opposite. I am long the market, but solely based on my timing work.  My mathematical work clearly illustrates that a severe (3 year) bear market is starting in 2014 to complete in 2017. Before that happens, I feel the pain the bears are going through. Of course, they are right but they are suffering through the most difficult stage of all…. market blow off top.  This is the time where there are almost no bears left. Most of them have been killed.  Case and point.

S&P 500 Will Be at 2,000 Sooner Than You Think article that not only makes fun of the bears, but claims that everyone is bearish and that’s why S&P will hit 2000 soon. Well, maybe everyone is bearish if you can find any bears left. I don’t know of any. Even permabears have turned bullish.  

 

Perhaps he is talking about Carl Icahn who has turned bearish CARL ICAHN: The Stock Market Could See A ‘Big Drop’ And I’m ‘Very Cautious’

To moral of the story is this. With the market surging ever higher, this is the most difficult time to be a bear.  Every bear looks like a complete idiot and loser. Yet, as the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.  True bears who maintain their position at this time will soon be greatly rewarded.  So much so that every true bear will be able to afford a Lamborghini.   

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

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Are You A Bear Hater?

bear market investwithalex

It’s hard to be a bear. No one likes bears.  Here are the top 10 signs that you might be a bear hater as well. 

  1. You define a bear who got it wrong simply as “An idiot”.
  2. You define a bear who got it right as “An idiot who got lucky.”
  3. Short squeezes give you a hard on.
  4. When you go to Russia you always order a Grilled Bear Steak.
  5. You can’t stop laughing when Mr. Market mauls all the bears.
  6. You secretly wish that Mr. Bernanke would round up all the bears and ship them to where they belong….. Siberia.
  7. You think that throwing bears out of airplanes should be an Olympic sport. 
  8. When up in the mountains you steal “Slow Down For Bears” signs and replace them with “No Speed Limit” signs. 
  9. You believe all bears are communists. 
  10. You believe bear mafia controls the toilet paper market.

This goes to all the bears out there. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

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What Does The Bear Say?

friendly bear investwithalex

People keep asking me why I don’t short the market right now if I am such a bear and believe in my forecast.  I believe this is a very good question that requires an explanation.

First,  I am not a bull or a bear. I am a money manager and an investor. My job requirements are fairly straight forward. To make money in both bull and bear markets.  My current bearish stance does not come from a position of being a “Permabear” (as some people out there), but from a very well researched and analyzed position of being a money manager.  Further,  I often shift gears but only when the time is right.

For example,  I was a BIG bear starting in 2006 warning anyone who would listen that our credit markets, real estate, the stock market and the overall economy would blow up shortly. Not many people have listened to my advice. Then in early 2009 as everyone was freaking out I came out and said that the bear leg is almost over and the time to buy will come in March of 2009. I was an all out Bull when everyone was crying and shorting the market.

Now, with the market approaching all time highs and fundamental picture deteriorating significantly, I am once again a bear.  Both my fundamental and my mathematical timing work clearly indicate that the stock market and the overall economy are about to implode again.  As I discuss on this blog I have no doubt about that.

However, I am not the dumbest bear in the woods.  That means you have to follow the market and only short when the time is right. The timing is not right…… just yet.  As I have mentioned many times before on this blog it is highly probable that the bull leg that started in March of 2009 will complete in March of 2014. Once it does, the market should roll over and head down hard.

Until that happens and until we get the confirmation that the bear market is in full swing there is no reason to go short.  Quite the opposite. The market is still trending up and smart investors should continue to HOLD their LONG positions if they have any.  Just as my advice indicates. (Although I wouldn’t buy any more right now).

I hope this helps with the understanding. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

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Get Rid Of Bears Once and For All

CNBC Writes: Bull market’s got another 10 to 15 years left: Pro

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The stock market is only in the second of three phases of a secular bull market, Altaira’s director of technical research, Ralph Acampora, said Monday.

“The first phase of a secular bull market is usually led by quality,” he said. “Second phase of a secular bull market, when people start to feel a little better about things, they buy secondary stocks,” Acampora said. “The third and final phase is totally greed and complacency, and we’re not even close to that. So, the secular bull market has a lot of life left.”

On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Acampora said that his 1,800 year-end target for theS&P 500 could easily be 50 points higher.

“I’m being a little conservative. Longer term, oh, good god—much, much higher,” he said. “This is a secular bull that has at least another 10, 15 years to run.”

Umm…. CNBC you never disappoint me. I just have 1 question for your PRO.

What bull market?

Let’s take a look. Since the secular bull market top in 2000 (13-14 years ago) the

  • DOW: + 30% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 10,000 by 2016)
  • S&P: +14% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 1,200 by 2016)
  • NASDAQ: -20% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 2,500 by 2016)

Once again, which bull market has another 10-15 years to go? We are not in the bull market. The markets barely moved since the 2000 secular top. Some remain in the negative territory. Perhaps they are talking about the bear market that started at 2009 bottom, but even if such is the case there is very little evidence that it was the start of a full on bull market.

The numbers and dates you see above are based on the precise mathematical work that I do. Not some arbitrary statement. If Mr. Acampora have studied the markets since its opening in 1790 he would soon realize that the bull and bear markets alternate in easy to see and understand 17 year cycles.

As such, we still have another 3-4 years of the bear left.  Don’t let the bear bite you. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

 

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You Are Your Own Worst Enemy. Why The Market Is About To Take Your Money Again….If You Don’t Listen

Business Week writes: “Investors’ Worst Instincts, Revealed (Again)”

sheep_off_cliffThe U.S. stock market is killing it. In the two-and-a-half year period from Jan. 1, 2011, to June 28, 2013, U.S. shares returned a cumulative 35 percent—26 percentage points ahead of international developed markets and 47 points better than emerging markets.

Investors, being investors, have taken to this turn of events by doing what they have sworn many times never to do again: They’re chasing the winners. In July, investors crammed a record $40.3 billion into U.S. equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds—this after years of yanking money from the category.

History offers plenty of examples as to why this is a bad idea. Emerging markets got hot in the mid-1990s, only to melt down just as U.S. dot-coms and tech stocks took over. By the time most retail investors bought in to that doomed mania, small caps, commodities, and BRICs took over. Lather, rinse, repeat….

This is not a surprise. This is how the markets work. This is how the human mind works. Majority of people are followers and seek out safety in numbers. If everyone is making money, I should do it and if everyone is in that mutual fund, I should be in it as well.

I do agree with one premise of the article. The market is significantly overvalued and since most people are once again chasing hot stocks, it is about to go down. I will go even further than that and say that the market is about to go down big time (20%-40%) as my timing work and previous articles indicate.

Don’t be stuck with the bag of shit when the music stops playing.  Right about now is a good time to get out of stocks. It’s might be a little too early to confirm, but technical indicators are showing that the final bear leg that will take us into the 2016 bottom and the end of the bear market that started in 2000 might have already started. There will be a bounce here followed by a decline. All we have to do now is wait for a confirmation.  I will write more about it later.