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Get Rid Of Bears Once and For All

CNBC Writes: Bull market’s got another 10 to 15 years left: Pro

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The stock market is only in the second of three phases of a secular bull market, Altaira’s director of technical research, Ralph Acampora, said Monday.

“The first phase of a secular bull market is usually led by quality,” he said. “Second phase of a secular bull market, when people start to feel a little better about things, they buy secondary stocks,” Acampora said. “The third and final phase is totally greed and complacency, and we’re not even close to that. So, the secular bull market has a lot of life left.”

On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Acampora said that his 1,800 year-end target for theS&P 500 could easily be 50 points higher.

“I’m being a little conservative. Longer term, oh, good god—much, much higher,” he said. “This is a secular bull that has at least another 10, 15 years to run.”

Umm…. CNBC you never disappoint me. I just have 1 question for your PRO.

What bull market?

Let’s take a look. Since the secular bull market top in 2000 (13-14 years ago) the

  • DOW: + 30% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 10,000 by 2016)
  • S&P: +14% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 1,200 by 2016)
  • NASDAQ: -20% (sitting at a bear market top about to reverse and go below 2,500 by 2016)

Once again, which bull market has another 10-15 years to go? We are not in the bull market. The markets barely moved since the 2000 secular top. Some remain in the negative territory. Perhaps they are talking about the bear market that started at 2009 bottom, but even if such is the case there is very little evidence that it was the start of a full on bull market.

The numbers and dates you see above are based on the precise mathematical work that I do. Not some arbitrary statement. If Mr. Acampora have studied the markets since its opening in 1790 he would soon realize that the bull and bear markets alternate in easy to see and understand 17 year cycles.

As such, we still have another 3-4 years of the bear left.  Don’t let the bear bite you. 

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