Overconfidence Kills

A Word Of Caution

overconfidence investwithalex

It is important that I pause here for a second and caution you that arbitrary use of 3-Dimensional analysis techniques described in this book could be very dangerous. Having learned this the hard way, please allow me to tell you a cautionary tale.

Back in 2006 and after years of looking into this type of analysis I have made a number of significant breakthroughs that led me to believe that I have finally fully cracked the 3-Dimensional analysis and have fully cracked the “stock market code”.  What followed was nothing short of amazing. Over the next 30 trading days I was able to predict the stock market within daily resolution and with 90-95% accuracy. Needless to say I was making a lot of money.

Yet, this same work and the success it brought have led me to an overconfidence level that should not be exhibited by any reasonable investor.  It led to me to make large bets in situations that do not warrant it, all because my mathematical 3-Dimensional work has indicated a certain move in a particular direction. This strategy worked until  one day when my analytical work backfired and led to massive losses in my fund.  Instead of a powerful move to the downside (which my work predicted), there was a powerful move to the upside, wiping out all of my gains and causing large losses in the process.

For the purposes of this book the lesson here is twofold.

First and foremost, do not use these techniques in an arbitrary fashion or with 100% confidence.  Yes, this work can and does predict the market with incredible accuracy, but that accuracy can only be attained after a substantial investment of your time into performing any such 3-Dimensional analysis.  You should never  follow anyone analysis or make use of simple tools or use it just because you saw it in this book without first understanding of WHY you are doing so.  Let me repeat that, until you reach the level of analysis where you clearly understand WHY you are doing something, do not use the tools here in an arbitrary fashion.  

Second,  never be 100% confident in your work. Even if your 3-Dimensional work has advanced substantially and you consistently making exact forecasts, be wary of it.  Always maintain the psychological investor mind frame that your analysis might be wrong. Never bet the farm based on your analysis and never back yourself into a corner. Always use stop losses and always leave room for maneuver, even if you are 100% confident. Remember, you will have plenty of opportunities to make money.              

It is my hope this warning steers you clear of trouble and helps you avoid the mistakes that I have made. Now, back to the stock market analysis. 

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