Daily Ticker Writes: The economy is only going to get stronger
Zandi has a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy: he’s forecasting 3% GDP growth this year and 4% growth in 2015.
“The U.S. economy is set to experience much stronger growth as the middle of the decade approaches,” he writes in his latest macro outlook. “Businesses are highly profitable and very competitive, households have reduced debt and are saving more, and the banking system is well-capitalized and liquid.”
Zandi says better economic growth will also lead to more jobs. He estimates that 3 million new workers will be hired in 2015, up from 2.25 million in 2013 and 2012. That would mean the economy returns to full employment (a federal jobless rate of 5.5% to 6%) by 2016.
“The job market is headed in right direction,” Zandi says. “Broadly speaking the economy is performing steadily better.”
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I am not sure who this Zandi, but one thing is for sure. If you are to believe his forecast you will be in for a beating. By the market that is.
The article above is garbage. Again, I am dumb founded that most economist and market practitioners don’t understand our current economic environment. Perhaps I was dropped on my head as a child a few too many times and see things differently. Thanks Mom!!!
Anyhow, the economic growth we see today is not real. It is driven by massive infusion of credit and speculation. That’s it. Further, there is no point to perpetuate any growth or forecast into the future. Since it is all “artificial”, it will vanish into thin air as soon as the speculative bubble driven by credit pops.
People always ask me what the catalyst will be for such an event. They are missing the point. Typically there is no catalyst. Let me give you an example. Was there a catalyst for 2007-09 decline? NO. The market simply started to go down in October of 2007, slowly at first, then accelerating later. It was the stock market that drove the economy into the ground and not the other way around.
Point being, for the most part there is no external catalyst. The market itself is the catalyst. It is the market that drives the fundamentals. Most people miss this very important point. As such, the market will go down when its ready to go down.
Based on my mathematical work that time is already upon us.
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