Bloomberg Writes: Egypt’s Coming Civil War
Three months ago, Egypt’s military seized power in a coup that it said was necessary both to prevent civil war and to restore democracy. By now it is clear that the military is failing on both counts.
Today, suspected Islamists killed at least nine soldiers and police in attacks. Yesterday, security forces killed 51 pro-Muslim Brotherhood protesters at a rally in Cairo that, according to witnesses, had been entirely peaceful. Meanwhile, the country continues to live under a nightly curfew.
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This is an important matter for regional stability and overall macroeconomic picture. The article argues that Egypt is basically on the brink of a civil war. It goes without saying, should such a war erupt, it will have significant repercussions on the entire region.
At least at this time I am not in the camp that believes Egypt will face civil war.
Why?
Because Egyptian stock market has been on a tear over the last few months (see chart above) indicating further stability and economic growth. Could the stock market be used as an indicator of upcoming economic and civil stability?
Not always, but it is the best future anticipation machine that we have and at least for not it is saying that Egypt will pull through.
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