Business Week Writes: Dr. Doom’s Upbeat Prognosis
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who earned the nickname Dr. Doom with his early predictions that the housing slump would trigger an economic collapse, is trying on a smile as he looks to the coming year. In his outlook for 2014, which he laid out in a Dec. 31 piece on the website Project Syndicate, Roubini says the risk of unexpected shocks is becoming “less salient” as growth in industrialized countries accelerates to just under 2 percent. That number is close to the 2.2 percent expansion forecast by economists at Goldman Sachs (GS) and Deutsche Bank (DB).
His predictions have been less on target since he warned on his blog in early 2007 that “the party will soon be over.” At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2009, he said, “I’ll be the first to call a recovery, but I just don’t see it yet, and it’s getting uglier.” He got that one wrong: The U.S. emerged from recession that June.
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This should come as no surprise to real Wall Street operators. Most economists change their opinion at exactly the wrong time. They cannot see the forest through the tree. I don’t even know what and why they teach economics. Allow me to point your attention to a couple points from the article above to prove my statement.
1. “Roubini says the risk of unexpected shocks is becoming “less salient” as growth in industrialized countries accelerates to just under 2 percent.”
Salient? What kind of crap is this. First, it doesn’t mean anything. Second, it absolutely wrong. The chances of “System Shock” has risen significantly over the last few years. Why? Because most of the recovery has been driven by massive credit infusion and speculation. The FED is literally creating credit cards out of thin air and then proceeds to max out said credit cards to get the economy going. Yet, it’s not working. If anything, the risk of “Unexpected Shock” is higher today than it was in 2000 or 2007.
2. “At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2009, he said, “I’ll be the first to call a recovery, but I just don’t see it yet, and it’s getting uglier.” Plus, he has maintained his bearing stance until now.
As my earlier work clearly illustrated, I called the March of 2009 bottom to the day and was only 100 trading points away from the actual bottom. His view shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mr. Roubini is acting like the heard. Selling at the bottom and buying at the top. Should you follow his advice or his economic forecast, you are bound to lose money.
Simply human psychology is the culprit. Just as everyone is jumping into the stock market right now (exactly at the wrong time), Roubini has changed his opinion as well. Dr. Doom my ass. All bears have been killed over the last 5 years and he is one of them. A Bear without big cojones is more like it. They should give the title to me.
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Dr. Doom Needs To Grow Some Cojones