Bitcoin (BTC) Is About To Do What ?

In early January of this year we confirmed Bitcoin’s November of 2022 bottom as a longer-term precise mathematical bottom and have suggested at the time that Bitcoin will run up to above $30K. No one believed us at the time – what else is new. 

It appears now that the proverbial Bitcoin bulls are coming back from the dead, their outlandish predictions are once again gaining steam. Not so fast….here is our latest Bitcoin (BTC) update……

BITCOIN (BTC)
Date of Analysis: October 30th, 2023

Our mathematical and timing analysis for Bitcoin shows the following…….

    • Short-term Bitcoin should remain range bound as it seeks out a mid-term top. We currently do not have any good mid-term time/price projections for this completion point. It’s a bit of a mess. 
    • Once the mid-term top arrives BTC will decline into a major bottom scheduled to arrive around XXXX of 20XX. 
    • We do have some bottom projection points, with the most likely bottom located at XXXX (+/- 100), but we would need a mid-term top point above to confirm this in full. 
    • Once the bottom arrives Bitcoin will turn into a fast mover and surge to a new all time high by about November of 20XX. This is the move to participate in. 

In summary, expect a range bound Bitcoin until a major bottom arrives around XXXX of 20XX. Then a powerful move higher to a new all time high. A more exact targeting analysis will be available as we approach the junctures above. 

If you would like to see our exact TIME & PRICE targets for Bitcoin’s (BTC) major bottom, as well as our precise turning point “targeting analysis” , please CLICK HERE

The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Decline & What’s Next – Summer Hiatus

Daily Chart August 21 20158/21/2015 – Another massive down day with the Dow Jones down 530 points (-3.12%) and the Nasdaq down 171 points (-3.52%). 

I AM TAKING A LITTLE BREAK FROM BLOGGING.  BACK AFTER LABOR DAY OR SEPT – 8TH. OUR PREMIUM SERVICE REMAINS FULLY FUNCTIONAL. 

This has not been a good week for the market. The Dow, Russell, NYSE and S&P  are now firmly in the negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq is at a break even point, but barely so. And while we are likely to get some sort of a bounce, sometime soon, this SHOULD cause some concern. Perhaps the analysis below can clear things up.

Below is a comprehensive longer-term review of the stock market and what the next few years hold. 

In the early January of 2000, the US Economy wa s booming. The Dow was fast approaching 11,800 and the Nasdaq was a stone throws away from its improbable benchmark of 5,000. Everyone was making a ton of money and as far as most people were concerned, the future looked very bright.  So much so, that very few people predicted a bear market of 2000-2002, let alone a secular 2000-2017 bear market that was about to begin.

The only way to do so was to know and to understand the cyclical TIME structure oscillating within the stock market.  For instance, an analyst working with such time cycles would know that the stock market’s 17-18 year cycle was topping out in conjunction with the 5 year cycle that started at 1994 bottom.  The bull market that started at the bottom in August of 1982 was coming to a conclusion. In fact, it would top out exactly 17.5 years after it had started or on January 14th, 2000 at 11,800. The 5 year cycle that started in December of 1994 would top out at exactly the same time; 5 years and 35 trading days after it had started.

What does this have to do with predicting a severe bear market of 2014/15-2017?

Everything.  Based on my work the stock market is a mathematically precise entity. And while there are hundreds of TIME cycles oscillating within the stock market at any one time, I will concentrate on only two to prove my point.  The 17-18 cycle and the 5 year cycles. We will look at these cycles over the last 100+ years and I will prove to you, without a shadow of a doubt, they work.

THE 17-18 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET:

Long Term Dow Structure3

Long-term cycles within the stock market tend to oscillate going all the way back to the first day of trading, in May of 1790.  If you would be inclined, I would encourage you to verify that information for yourself. For our purposes we will start our analysis a little bit later or exactly 100 years ago. As the chart above indicates, the stock market tends to oscillate in clearly defined 17-18 year alternating Bull/Bear market cycles.

  • 17.5 Year Bull Market (1914 bottom to 1932 bottom): The previous bear market terminated in July of 1914. At that time the US stock market shut down for World War 1. The stock market remained closed between August of 1914 and December of 1914 (a very rare occurrence). When the market finally reopened in December of 1914 it immediately began a rally that would not terminate until October of 1929. Followed by a now famous 1929 stock market crash and a massive 90% 3 year decline. The cycle terminated at the bottom in 1932, completing the 17.5 year bull market cycle at that time.

*Note: It is important to address the 1929-1932 bear market and its impact on the overall 1914-1932 Bull Market cycle. It is a complex matter to discuss without sufficient background or understanding, but the final (short-term) structural composition of this Bull Cycle inverted over the last 3 years (1929-1932). Mostly due to a massive rally between 1924-1929 and a number of down cycles converging on this time period at the same time.  Regardless, the overall cycle lasted 17.5 years.

  • 17 Year BEAR Market (1932 bottom to 1949 bottom): The cycle originated at the bottom in July of 1932 and lasted until June of 1949. During this period of time we had a post great depression bounce, 1937 crash and World War 2. Yet, despite the overall upward trajectory, this clearly defined 1949 bottom remained 60% below its 1929 top and well below both its 1937 and 1942 tops.
  • 17 Year BULL Market (1949 bottom to 1966 top): The market surged higher between 1949 bottom and 1966 top. This was the so called “Golden Age” of post war reconstruction and the American industrial boom. During this time the Dow appreciated over 500% in a clearly defined bull market cycle.
  • 16.5 Year BEAR Market (1966 top to 1982 bottom): The market stayed relatively flat during this period of time with a few notable declines of 30-50%. With the 1972-1974 mid cycle decline of 54% being the largest one.  This clearly defined bear market completed in August of 1982. Approximately 25% below its 1966 top.
  • 17.5 Year BULL Market (1982 bottom to 2000 top): A very well known period and a clearly defined bull market. The market surged higher from its August of 1982 bottom to reach its historic top in January of 2000. During this time the Dow appreciated over 1,400% in one of the strongest bull markets in history.
  • 17 Year BEAR Market (2000 top to 2017 bottom): Even though the market is sitting near all time highs (as of this writing in January of 2014) and even though most people have assumed that the new bull market has started, in relative terms the market hasn’t appreciated very much since its top in 2000. The Nasdaq is still down. Plus, with the final down leg of this bear market being ahead of us (based on my mathematical and timing work), the BEAR market of 2000-2017 should complete itself in a negative territory or below its 2000 top.

It is important to note that the small variation (of +/- 1 year) in duration of these cycles is caused by smaller or larger cycles arriving at the same time. As such and based on the cycles above, we are no longer working in an arbitrary fashion when it comes to predicting the stock market.  In other words, if the stock market repeats a clearly defined 17-18 year Bull/Bear cycle over a 220 year period of time (since 1790) and does so without interruption,  it is safe to assume that the future is predictable and not random.

THE 5 YEAR CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET

One other easily identifiable cycle within the stock market is the 5 year cycle. These 5 year cycles represent one completed growth pattern or one completed Bull or Bear cycle. Typically, they tend to appear for 5 years, disappear and then reappear at a certain point in the future. While they are not sequential as the 17-18 year cycle above, once their place within the overall stock market is understood, they show up at exactly the right time.  For instance,

  • 1914 -1920: Bull Market
  • 1924-1929: Bull Market (followed by a 1929 crash)
  • 1932-1937: Bull Market (followed by a 1937 crash)
  • 1937-1942: Bear Market
  • 1966-1971: Bear Market
  • 1982-1987: Bull Market (followed by a 1987 crash)
  • 1994-2000: Bull Market (followed by a 2000 crash)
  • 2002-2007: Bull Market (followed by a 2007 crash)
  • 2009- July of 2014: Bull Market

One thing to understand about these 5 Year cycles is that they are exact. They have much lower level variance as compared to their longer counterparts. Essentially, we are NOT talking about 5 years +/- 6 months. We are talking about 5 years +/- a few days. For instance, the 2002-2007cycle started on October 10th, 2002 (at 2002 bottom) and terminated on October 11th, 2007. If you are counting, that is exactly 5 Years and 1 day or scary accurate. I encourage you to study the other cycles outlined above in order to prove to yourself how shockingly accurate they all are.

 CONCLUSION: 

In summary, predicting a bear market of 2015-2017 is rather simple.  All 17-18 year bear cycles end with a 2-3 year bear market. For instance, 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1979-1982. And while most believe that the secular bear market ended at 2009 bottom, that is not the case. The secular bear market of 2000-2017 is still in effect and will terminate only when the year 2017 is reached. Although the final price bottom will be higher than the mid-cycle bottom reached in March of 2009.

Further, the 5-Year cycle that started on March 6th, 2009 bottom terminated on July 16th, 2014 (Look at NYSE for confirmation). Suggesting that the stock market is now ready to initiate its bear leg (despite recent higher highs). When I combine this cyclical analysis with the rest of my mathematical and timing work, the outcome is crystal clear. A severe bear market of 2015-2017 is just around the corner.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. August 7th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Shocking: The Real Reason Behind Stock Market’s Decline & What’s Next Google

Can Meditation Improve Your Trading?

meditation investwithalexA great article on the subject matter from Bloomberg and I highly recommend that everyone reads it. To Make a Killing on Wall Street, Start Meditating

I have been seriously meditating for over 7 years now and I swear by it. Most people don’t have the slightest idea of how stressful it is to be involved in the money management/trading business. In fact, I continue to maintain that it is one of the most challenging professions out there. And while some people turn to drugs, alcohol, partying, hookers, gambling and other destructive/compulsive behaviors, for me meditation is the only healthy (and free) option.

Listen, most people will gain a competitive advantage on Wall Street NOT through superior knowledge…..you can teach a monkey to read a balance sheet or a chart…..but through their psychological make up and patience. In other words, your brain can either be your best friend or your worst enemy. Simply put, meditation, over time, turns your brain/being into a powerful weapon when it comes to trading and/or investing.

Plus, there is a number of additional benefits. Wisdom and a potential enlightenment immediately come to mind. As a quick note, don’t follow anyone or get a “Guru”. Just close your eyes and destroy your mind. It’s the best drug out there. I highly recommend it.

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Can Meditation Improve Your Trading? Google

Last Hurrah? Foreigners & Hedge Funds Buy Real Estate In Bulk

Dead-cat-bounce

Foreign investors are always the last to arrive. This should not come as a surprise to anyone. Just cycles repeating themselves.

Foreign Money Is Pouring Into U.S. Real Estate, and It’s Not Just Houses

As the pot of money set aside for U.S. commercial real estate grows, competition for the best properties is pushing investors to buy in bulk. Based on the pipeline, which includes the GE deal, the second quarter may be one of the biggest on record for property transactions, according to Real Capital. It’s so hard to get things on a single-asset basis,” said Janice Stanton, an executive managing director at commercial brokerage Cushman & Wakefield Inc. “You’re starting to see larger and larger transactions.

Blackstone is a prime example of the thinking above. Their investment thesis in real estate is very simple. 1. The bottom is in. 2. There is a massive housing shortage. 3. Real estate prices will continue to rise.  That sounds great, except for one thing, it’s a bunch of nonsense that can easily be discredited.

Now, remember, while these guys have been somewhat correct thus far by being one of the largest real estate buyers/investors in the nation, the market hasn’t spoken yet. All they have done is bought a huge amount of illiquid real estate that they will be unable to unload when a bear market in real estate prices resumes. As often is the case, one minute you are a financial genius and a half an hour later you are a retarded idiot (after the market moves against you).

In another sign that the “Dead Cat Bounce” for the Real Estate market is now over, Blackstone Group has announced that it’s real estate acquisition pace has slowed 70% from last years pace due to higher prices. In fact, this is the trend seen across the industry. Investors, hedge funds, institutions are all slowing down their real estate acquisitions to the tune of 70-90%.

“The institutional wave has passed,” Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. “It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”

What happens next?

Easy. The real estate market might hover here for some time. Not too long thought. As soon the Bear Market of 2015-2017 hits and the US falls back into a severe recession, you will see housing going down once again. Once investors realize where we are in the real estate cyclical composition (dead cat bounce and not expansion) you will see the likes of Blackstone trying to get rid of their properties as fast as possible. With investors heading for the doors, mass volume of real estate should hit the market. Collapsing existing values just as fast, if not faster, than their initial descend between 2006-2010.

Good luck selling your 43,000 rental properties Blackstone. 

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Last Hurrah? Foreigners & Hedge Funds Buy Real Estate In Bulk Google

Are The Bears Stupid Or Something?

Daily Chart May 13th InvestWithAlex

5/13/2015 – A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 7 points(-0.04%) and the Nasdaq up 5 points (+0.11%) 

Is there a party at the Hamptons during the week? The stock market remains within the confines of its “Mind Numbing” trading range. We have had the same situation in the summer of 2014. At that time I have suggested that such a low period of volatility will result in a violent move thereafter. And so it was. Today, we are facing a very similar outcome.

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won’t have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

At least for now, the bulls continue to point their finger at the bears and laugh.

Bears Beware: Bond Rout Puts Investors on the Wrong Side of Central Banks

The article suggests that it is suicidal to fight the majority of central banks today. As their primary concern remains inflationary stability and asset price appreciation.

And while the premise above sounds about right, the author and the money managers in question make a fatal mistake. They have create a direct correlation between zero interest rates/QE and subsequent asset price bubbles we are experiencing today.

That is a fatal assumptions because the link might not have anything to do with the reality. As I often suggest, the stock market traces out its exact mathematical points of force. It will decline when the TIME/PRICE are right. Not before nor after. That is to say, the stock market will start its decline when the time is right, no matter what the fundamental picture is and no matter what central banks are doing.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 13th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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Are The Bears Stupid Or Something?  Google

Greenspan And Paulson Expect A Sell-Off….Should You?

Alan-Greenspan-Investwithalex

The biggest “Economic Miracle”…aka… fraud of all time, Mr. Alan Greenspan thinks that A. The FED will raise rates and B. The stock market will sell-off. Mr. Paulson shares in his view.

This comes on top of Janet Yellen recent admission that the stock market is overpriced. But wait, this gets even better. Mr. Greenspan comes through with an excellent investment advice.

“The best strategy for equity investment has always been buy and hold, and forget it.  Once you start to try and trade the market. I don’t care how good you are, how smart you are, you will not beat an index fund.”

That sounds nice in theory until you are sitting at 2009 bottom with a 50-60% loss. So, let’s recap. Greenspan, Paulson and Yellen think that we are in some sort of a bubble, the rates will rise and the market will sell-off. If you still believe that today is a good time to be fully invested, well, you are on your own.

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Greenspan And Paulson Expect A Sell-Off….Should You?  Google

What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market

Daily Chart May 12th InvestWithAlex

5/12/2015 – Another down day with the Dow Jones down 37 points (-0.20%) and the Nasdaq down 17 points (-0.35%). 

Over the last few weeks I have suggested that today’s short setup is about as ideal as the long setup was at 2009 bottom. Hence, short sellers should be thankful for such high prices.

Bill Gross introduces the same idea, but in the bond market Bill Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Would Mean Armageddon (watch the video, it’s worth your time).

“It’s Just A Matter Of Time”

While the conversation in the link above has to do with zero yielding German bonds, the same line of thinking should apply to the US Treasury market. At some point “follow the FED” trade will fail and the yields will surge. And while I don’t think we are there yet, it is just a matter of time. As a result, my forecast remains, 10-Year Treasury note will see a double bottom at 1.4-1.5% over the next two years before this 30 year bull run in yields is over.

When it comes to the stock market, “short equity” setup we are facing today is about as ideal as it was at 2000 and 2007 tops. Very limited upside or risk (if any) and massive downside. In other words, long-term investors should heed the lessons of two previous market tops. And instead of trying to figure out how many more years this secular bull market has left (hint: we are still in a secular bear market that started in 2000), they should seriously consider shifting their portfolios to the short side or cash.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 12th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

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What You Ought To Know About Investing In Today’s Market  Google

Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility

VIX Investwithalex

VIX/VXX continue to trade at the bottom of their respective trading ranges. Over the last few weeks our podcast discussed how commercials are building a massive long position in volatility.  They might not be the only ones.

Almost $100 Million of VIX Options Traded Hands in a Split Second Today

Is someone hedging or are they simply building a massive long position in volatility? While we won’t know for sure, here is what we do know.

  • The stock market has been stuck in a fairly tight trading range over the last 10 months (NYSE). Even more so over the last 5 months. Driving volatility lower.
  • Most stocks are selling at dizzying valuation levels.

Both are temporary. In other words, longer-term, someone is making a smart bet by accumulating volatility (VIX/VXX) at or near today’s levels. Once a bear market kicks in and we break out of this trading range, volatility should skyrocket. If you would like to find out exactly when we anticipate that to happen, please Click Here.

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Why The Smart Money Is Betting On Surge In Volatility Google

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

taleb investwithalex“I was convinced that I was totally incompetent in predicting market prices – but that others were generally incompetent also but did not know it, or did not know they were taking massive risks. Most traders were just “picking pennies in front of a steamroller,” exposing themselves to the high-impact rare event yet sleeping like babies, unaware of it.”
― Nassem Nicholas Taleb

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

Just To Reach Historical Norms The S&P Must Fall 50%

PE Ratio

John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, believes the S&P 500 stock index would have to fall by 55 percent to reach historical norms.

“The notion that equity valuations cannot, or will not, revisit normal run-of-the-mill prospective returns (or better) in the coming decade has utterly no support in the historical record. We made similarly ‘preposterous’ but ultimately accurate statements in 2000 and 2007 about the size of the market loss that would likely complete the cycle”.

John is absolutely right and you can see the same from the chart above. The average P/E ratio oscillated around 15 over the last 120 years. And that would indeed warrant close to a 50% haircut from today’s levels.

Impossible? Here is a fun fact. Did you know that between 1899 and 1949, a 50 year period of time, the Dow barely moved. In nominal terms it gained approximately 2% a year. Inflation adjusted, it lost over 25% of its value. The same occurred between 1790 and 1860.

Any notion that we are in some sort of a new economic/financial reality is a foolish one. The stock market is in a massive bubble and it will decline substantially over the next two years. As per our mathematical and timing work. Click Here 

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Just To Reach Historical Norms The S&P Must Fall 50% Google