2/12/2016 - A positive day with the Dow Jones up 318 points (+2.03%) and the Nasdaq up 71 points (+1.66%)
About two weeks ago I suggested that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall going forward. And that appears to be the case here. With bears declaring victory one day, only to be squeezed to death the next. As is the case today. Let's try to figure out what's going on.
- Shipper Moller-Maersk Posts Q4 Loss of $2.5 Billion -VS-
- U.S. recession risk at 20%-25%, Morgan Stanley's Caron says
We have covered the Baltic Dry Index and its recent crash on this blog before. And while various market pundits continue to argue about the possibility of a recession, Baltic Dry has made the whole matter as clear as night and day. That is, after losing 90% of its value in just under two years and hitting historic lows on the daily basis.
Not only are we already in a recession, something much worse might be coming down the pipeline. At least that is what global trade and oil are telling us.
- Is it really 2008 all over again? -VS-
- Bottom fishers, the time to buy stocks after that S&P rout may be nigh
Buy the dip mentality has worked very well between 2009 bottom and 2015 top. Yet, the strategy has proven disastrous since then. Is it ready to make a comeback? Perhaps. At the same time, the market's technical and fundamental backdrop is indeed very similar to the one we saw in 2008. No one can seriously argue that the market is not overpriced.
So, who is right?
Well, last week I showed you the chart below. Suggesting that the market will remain within a certain trading range until the structure below terminates itself in TIME. Hence, the tag of war we are witnessing today. It is only after this structure completes itself, in TIME, that the market will move violently. If you would like to find out exactly when this large scale move will start, and most importantly, its direction, please Click Here.
This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years. If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.
(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 12th, 2016 InvestWithAlex.com
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