Big Market Move Is Coming….Are You Ready?

Daily Chart AFebruary 12 InvestWithAlex

2/12/2016 - A positive day with the Dow Jones up 318 points (+2.03%) and the Nasdaq up 71 points (+1.66%)

About two weeks ago I suggested that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall going forward. And that appears to be the case here. With bears declaring victory one day, only to be squeezed to death the next. As is the case today. Let's try to figure out what's going on.

We have covered the Baltic Dry Index and its recent crash on this blog before. And while various market pundits continue to argue about the possibility of a recession, Baltic Dry has made the whole matter as clear as night and day. That is, after losing 90% of its value in just under two years and hitting historic lows on the daily basis.

Not only are we already in a recession, something much worse might be coming down the pipeline. At least that is what global trade and oil are telling us.

Baltic dry index has crashed

Buy the dip mentality has worked very well between 2009 bottom and 2015 top. Yet, the strategy has proven disastrous since then. Is it ready to make a comeback? Perhaps. At the same time, the market's technical and fundamental backdrop is indeed very similar to the one we saw in 2008. No one can seriously argue that the market is not overpriced.

So, who is right? 

Well, last week I showed you the chart below.  Suggesting that the market will remain within a certain trading range until the structure below terminates itself in TIME. Hence, the tag of war we are witnessing today. It is only after this structure completes itself, in TIME, that the market will move violently. If you would like to find out exactly when this large scale move will start, and most importantly, its direction, please Click Here. 
February Chart

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 12th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Big Market Move Is Coming....Are You Ready? Google

Demeter Capital Weekly Report & COT

As you already know, Matt Demeter's (Demeter Capital) weekly coverage concentrates on some of the most popular worldwide indices, futures, bonds, stocks, commodities and currencies. Matt’s work is some of the most accurate I have ever seen and it shows. The table below represents just a small portion of work available from Demeter Research. To learn more and to see Matt's work in action, please Click Here.

Report Date: February 7th, 2016  (Including COT Reports). 

For up to the minute long-term and short-term analysis on all of the markets below, please Click Here

Matt update 1

Investment Grin Of The Day

funny-dog-tennis-ball-investment-advice-investwithalexZ30

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How Meditation Can Improve Your Investment Returns

meditation investwithalexHad a long conversation with a friend about investing and meditation. Now would be a great time to re-post this.

A great article on the subject matter from Bloomberg and I highly recommend that everyone reads it. To Make a Killing on Wall Street, Start Meditating

I have been seriously meditating for over 7 years now and I swear by it. Most people don't have the slightest idea of how stressful it is to be involved in the money management/trading business. In fact, I continue to maintain that it is one of the most challenging professions out there. And while some people turn to drugs, alcohol, partying, hookers, gambling and other destructive/compulsive behaviors, for me meditation is the only healthy (and free) option.

Listen, most people will gain a competitive advantage on Wall Street NOT through superior knowledge.....you can teach a monkey to read a balance sheet or a chart.....but through their psychological make up and patience. In other words, your brain can either be your best friend or your worst enemy. Simply put, meditation, over time, turns your brain/being into a powerful weapon when it comes to trading and/or investing.

Plus, there is a number of additional benefits. Wisdom and a potential enlightenment immediately come to mind. As a quick note, don't follow anyone or get a "Guru". Just close your eyes and destroy your mind. It's the best drug out there. I highly recommend it.

z33

Can Meditation Improve Your Trading? Google

Refinance Your Real Estate & Other Loans NOW!!!

Daily Chart AFebruary 11 InvestWithAlex

2/11/2016 - A negative day with the Dow Jones down 255 points (-1.60%) and the Nasdaq down 17 points (-0.39%) 

I typically shy away from giving direct "financial advice", but this one is a no-brainer. At least based on my long-term mathematical and timing work.

I am executing this "Trade" for myself and I have instructed my entire family to do the same. Most importantly, I believe this "Trade" will allow individuals to do the incredible. That is, to legally loot a bank of your choice. Literally. A truly once in a lifetime opportunity.

Let's start from the beginning.

  1. Over the last two years I have maintained that we will see a double bottom in the 10-Year Treasury Note. Here is a sample post from last year 10-Year Note: All Systems Are A Go For A Double Bottom
  2. Well, guess what.....we are nearly there. At the chart below shows.

TNX

Whether we still push lower, into a double bottom, perhaps even lower is pointless for the purposes of this post. The time to act is NOW. I would say you have about 1-12 months to get this trade done. And the sooner you do it, the better.

What is this trade? 

  1. We are witnessing a multi-generational bottom in interest rates. Refinance and lock in your loans at a fixed rate and do it now. The longer the duration of the loan the better.
  2. The FED will be forced to inflate away or monetize the dollar or our massive debt.
  3. Most of your fixed loan value (not underlying asset) will be wiped out through inflation. In other words, you will stick it to the bank. Big time.

Why/How?

Here is what will happen over the next 10-20 years. At least based on my mathematical and timing work.

We are are about to go through a major bear market leg. Since the FED is sitting at zero interest rates already, they will be forced to do additional rounds of QE and to even go Interest rate negative. My work suggests that the US Dollar and Interest rates will have none of that. At a certain point.

The US Dollar will decline while Interest rates head higher (market rates). Additional stimulus will finally get inflation going. An inflation that will accelerate over the next 10-15 years. Think in terms of 1966-1982 period of time.

By the time it is all said and done, in about 20 years, your fixed mortgage might be inflated away to the tune of 75-90%. To the point where a $500,000  fixed 30 year loan and $3,000 monthly payment today, might only be worth about $100,000 or $500 monthly in today's money. The rest of its value will simply vanish.

In other words, you win and banks lose........for once.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 11th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day

einstein quote

Z31

Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

Financial Media Predicts Armageddon – Time To Go Long?

Daily Chart AFebruary 10 InvestWithAlex2/10/2016 - A mixed day with the Dow Jones down 99 points (-0.62%) and the Nasdaq up 15 points (+0.35%) 

When it comes to investing, sentiment, investor or otherwise, becomes increasingly important. For instance, when we were heavily short in May of 2015, you couldn't find a bearish point of view if your life dependent on it How We Nailed May 19th, 2015 Top -To The Day. Even permabears like Marc Faber were throwing in the towel at the time.

The situation is entirely reversed today. Open any financial media outlet and you will be hard pressed to find anything positive. So much so that quite a few prominent market "pundits" are calling for an outright financial Armageddon. Soup lines in tow.

And you thought I was a bear. Here is just a small sample from today.

Point being, financial media's bearish sentiment is overwhelming today. When that happens one of two things develop. We either crash or a big time bounce is just around the corner. I will let you decide what happens next. But you can always Click Here if you would like to know now.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 10th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

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Investment Grin Of The Day

How I feel every Friday afternoon. Mostly because I am a market addict. 

z32

Investment Grin Of The Day  Google

If The Market Crashes, How Will The ETF’s React?

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It appears I am not the only one who is aware of the ETF liquidity time bomb. I first published this post in September of 2015. If The Market Crashes, How Will The ETF’s React?

David Stockman tends to agree. Mutual Funds, ETFs at Risk of a Run For a different reason, but his concerns lead to the same conclusion. When the next sell-off hits, and it most certainly will, at some point ETF's liquidity will vanish. Leading to massive gap downs (or worse) we all saw on August 24th, 2015.

Previously published analysis: September 14th, 2015

August 24th gap down (or mini crash) of 1,000 points on the Dow was incredibly important from another angle. It has exposed a weakness in ETF's that not many were aware of. Still not aware of. An in depth discussion can be found here.....

Wild Trading Exposed Flaws in ETFs

For our purposes and since we follow the Dow so closely, let's take a look at DIA (chart above). But keep in mind, the analysis below was evident throughout the  stock market and across most financial instruments the morning of August 24th.

The Dow and DIA typically move together (+/- 20 cents). That morning the Dow bottomed 5 minutes into trading at 15,370, while the DIA bottomed at $150.57. That's a 2% discrepancy or an arbitrage that can be recovered in a matter of minutes.We saw the same on QQQ/NDX and SPY/SPX, plus numerous other ETF's.

Here is what I am thinking. Should the market crash over the next few months, something that is possible given today's overvaluation/speculation environment, enterprising investors/traders might want to look at ETF's to boost up their gains. On both the short side and subsequent reversals.

Who knows, the next discrepancy could be 2-5%, depending on the size and speed of the primary move. That is to say, put this arbitrage on your "To Watch List" and be ready to act if the market is crashing and/or moving fast.

Z31

If The Market Crashes, How Will The ETF's React? Google

Jim Rogers: It’s Over – Get Ready To Suffer

Daily Chart AFebruary 9 InvestWithAlex

2/9/2016 - Another down day with the Dow Jones down 12 points (-0.07%) and the Nasdaq down 15 points (-0.35%)

An important interview with legendary investor Jim Rogers. If you participate in financial markets  - I highly recommend you watch it. I couldn't agree more with Jim and there are too many good points  to mention here. Definitely worth 20 minutes of your time. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 9th, 2016  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Jim Rogers: It's Over - Get Ready To Suffer  Google