Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – February 28th, 2015

ALL NEW & FRESH: February 28th, 2015: We have a great show for you this week. Hedge fund managers Matthew Demeter and Alex Dvorkin discuss the following topics....

  • What the stock market is doing and what we expect to happen over the next few weeks.
  • COT Report and what the big guys are buying. Listen to make sure you are not on the wrong side of the trade.
  • Swiss Frank, Australian Dollar, Interest Rates, Gold/Silver, Oil, Bond Yields, Copper, Agriculture, Natural Gas and what we expect to happen in these markets.
  • A multitude of great investment ideas and various tops/bottoms that can make you a ton of money.
  • And of course, much.....much more.

Don't miss this one and join us again next Saturday. 

Listen to the podcast by clicking on the player above. If you prefer iTunes, please Click Here

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Two Hedge Fund Managers Discuss The Stock Market, Currencies, Commodities & Investment Ideas – Weekly Podcast Google

Billionaire Investor: The Best Shorting Opportunity Since 2007-09 Is NOW!!!

Daily Chart February 27th

2/27/2015- A down day with the Dow Jones down 81 points (-0.45%) and the Nasdaq down 24 points (-0.49%)

The stock market continues to perform as expected. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here. 

Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, of Odey Asset Management, recently shared some food for thought.

  • I think equity markets will get devastated. 
  • Major economies are entering a recession that will be remembered in a hundred years. 
  • Bearish opportunity to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.

He goes on to say....

We are in the first stage of this downturn. It is too early to see what will happen – a change of this magnitude means the darkness and mist is very great. We will make some mistakes but with our thinking we won’t make the major mistakes. The problem is where you stand – I am amazed to see so many are fully invested given that equities are already fighting the downtrend. Mid and smallcaps have moved into bear markets and much relies on large caps to keep the whole thing going and they are very exposed to international trade.

I mostly agree with Mr. Odey's economic assessment at this juncture. And while most people would label me as a "perma bear" I would have to disagree with the extent of his bearishness. I know....crazy. Here is why the decline of 2015-2017 will not be as great as the collapse of 2007-2009 and why it is certain that we will not see the crash of 1929-32 nor another great depression. At least for the time being.

This conclusion comes out of my mathematical and timing work. As I have said so many times before, we are now in the final stages of a secular bear market that started in January of 2000. The decline of 2007-2009 was a mid cycle panic. We had the same massive declines in all previous bear markets. For instance, 1907-1908, 1937 crash, 1973-1974.

What does that mean?

It simply means that final secular bear market declines of 1912-1914, 1946-1949 and 1981-1982 are never as violent as mid-cycle panics. That is to say, while the decline of 2015-2017 will be substantial, leading to big losses, it won't be as violent nor as deep as the decline of 2007-2009.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 27th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Billionaire Investor: The Best Shorting Opportunity Since 2007-09 Is NOW!!! Google

Is Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) About To Crash? Some Big Players Think So

Tesla forecast

Bank of America believes Tesla (TSLA) is about to collapse. Bank of America is predicting a massive Tesla collapse

Very quickly, it would be wise to pay attention to this analysis. As I have suggested before, Tesla is highly speculative, massively overvalued and their is no guarantee that the company will succeed in their overall mission. The competition from big automakers is catching up fast. The technicals support B of A assessment and high flyers such as TSLA tend to perform poorly in bear markets. An exact environment we anticipate.

Also, Germany's Berenberg Bank German Bank Predicts Apple Stock Tumbles Over 50% As Shares Roundtrip To $60

Let's use a different kind of financial analysis for Apple (AAPL). Let me tell you a short story first. In December of 2002, Apple's valuation stood at $15 Billion. It is at $750 Billion today. Here is the point I am trying to make. If I would have told investors 12 years ago that Apple would be selling at 50X most recent price, I would have been laughed out of the building. By most investors. Reverse the situation today and you might have your answer. Plus, remember one simple truth when it comes to investing. Everyone loves a certain stock only until no one does.

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Is Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) About To Crash? Some Big Players Think So Google

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

wall street monkeyRaven, a 6 year old chimpanzee, became the 22nd most successful money manager in the USA by throwing darts at a list of internet companies. Raven created her own index, dubbed MonkeyDex, and in 1999 delivered a 213% gain, outperforming more than 6,000 professional brokers on Wall Street.

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Investment Wisdom Of The Day  Google

Is Volatility (VIX/VXX) About To Surge?

VIX indicator

I often say that the stock market has two objectives. 

  1. To fool as many people at once as possible.
  2. To put everyone to sleep or on auto pilot right before a large move in the opposite direction starts.

Watching the stock market this week has been about just as exciting as watching the grass grow. What's more, about 99% of investors out there are incredibly bullish. We are talking about the Dow 20K in a few months kind of bullish.

Has the stock market set its trap once again? 

At least according to the Volatility Index (VIX), the answer is YES. As everything else out there, VIX moves in cycles. And with the stock market approaching irrational exuberance levels while triggering multiple overbought indicators, the VIX is approaching the bottom of its trading range. Suggesting, as it did in September of 2014, that fear is about to rear its ugly head. The only question is, are you listening or are you asleep at the wheel?

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Is Volatility (VIX/VXX) About To Surge? Google

Why Bernie Madoff Should Be Our Next FED Chairman

Daily Chart February 26th

2/26/2015 - Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 10 points (-0.06%) and the Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.42%) 

It is not often that someones comes out and calls like it is. Societe Generale's notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, did just that.

The US recovery story is a fraud: SocGen bear

"The downturn in U.S. profits is accelerating and it is not just an energy or U.S. dollar phenomenon – a broad swathe of U.S. economic data has disappointed in February,"

I couldn't agree more. We have covered this in great detail over the last few months. There is a massive disconnect, for now, between the real US Economy and the stock market.

"The reality is that the vast bulk of economic, as well as earnings, data (even outside the energy sector), has been simply dreadful. The economic cycle will be brought down by asset bubbles bursting long before 'tight' policy has any effect. Lessons were learned from the global financial crisis, but not that one."

Last quarterly report is a perfect illustration on that. Corporates are guiding down in both revenue and earnings. All while the P/E ratios continues to expand due to speculation, buybacks, QE and accounting tricks.  If there was ever a recipe for a disaster, this is it.

"With equity markets galore hitting record highs clearly I must be missing something big!" he said. "I've been here before though and know full well how this story ends and it doesn't involve me being detained in a mental health establishment (usually)."

I have been called all sorts of things in the early 2007 by various market participants. Boy who cried wolf, stupid idiot and my personal favorite, short selling a hole and unbeliever. Yet, the reality remains just as vivid today as it was back then. The stock market is in a massive bubble and it will eventually implode.

In other words, even Bernie Madoff must be amazed at how far the FED took our Ponzi driven economy. Most importantly, that 99.5% of people out there still believe them.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 26th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Bernie Madoff Should Be Our Next FED Chairman  Google

You Know The Stock Market Is About To Top When…..

You know a TOP is near when clueless mainstream financial media talking heads start making fun of well researched bears. No further comment is necessary here.

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You Know The Stock Market Is About To Top Out When..... Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

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Investment Grin Of The Day Google

Russian Tank Division Spotted 300 Meters Away From The Tijuana Border Crossing

US-Russia-Estonia

Let me ask you something. Should the headline above be true, how long would it be before the US Military unleashes an all out war? A few days.....perhaps a few hours? With that in mind, US armor paraded 300m from Russian border Luckily, some in the US Media are starting to say what I have been saying for well over a year now.

The Boston Globe: Putin’s push into Ukraine is rational

The United States, unlike Russia, respects the sovereignty of its neighbors — but only because they are friendly. If Mexico were to invite Russia to build a military base in Tijuana, or if Canada were to allow Chinese missiles to be deployed in Vancouver, the United States would certainly react. We would not wait to be attacked but would preempt the threat — by military means if necessary. This is precisely what Russia is doing in Ukraine. Rather than wait to be encircled, it is acting to defend its security perimeter.

You would imagine that the view above wouldn't take much logic. Something that most of our politicians clearly lack. Listen, there are only so many times that you can poke a bear with a stick before this bear rips your head off.  And as I have said before, should the US supply lethal weapons to the Ukrainians, that would be the last draw. US mulling lethal aid to Ukraine; Russian response a concern

Here is another thing that most Americans don't understand. Russian military is not Taliban or depleted Iraqi army. It has the capability to wipe out the entire European NATO force in a few hours. And I am not even talking about the use of nuclear weapons.  Something that American commanders should consider before parading American tanks 300 meters away from the Russian border. By the way, Hitler did the same thing in 1941.

In other words, the American Government should stop acting like a mentally challenged 5 year old playing with matches and a stick of dynamite. Well, unless they are purposely trying to drag us into yet another pointless war.

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Russian Tank Division Spotted 300 Meters Away From The Tijuana Border Crossing Google

Why Today’s Stock Market Is More Expensive Than NASDAQ 2000 Bubble

Daily Chart February 25th

2/25/2015 - A mixed day with the Dow Jones up 15 points (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.02%). 

The stock market continues to perform as forecasted. About two weeks ago I have suggested that a period of low volatility is likely to occur. We are witnessing that today. With that in mind, don't make the mistake of falling asleep here. According to my mathematical and timing work, volatility will be back with the vengeance shortly. If you would like to find out what happens next and when, please Click Here. 

In the meantime, Hillary Clinton paid $300,000 to explain what ails the middle class.  No surprise there as our future presidential candidate proceeded to blame new technology and male chauvinist culture for all of our economic problems.  The real answer, of course, is not as sexy......a massive Ponzi scheme perpetuated by the FED and the US Government. I told you it wouldn't be as exciting.

Back to our attempt to illustrate just how out of touch with reality the stock market really is.

I have covered the points in the articles above at least a dozen times over the last few months, yet one persistent assumption remains. Most investors out there believe that today's valuation levels are nowhere near Nasdaq 2000 levels. The articles above dispel some of that.

With that in mind, I am willing to take it even further. Not only are today's valuation levels on par with Nasdaq 2000 levels, they are much higher. Here is why. The 10-year note was around 6% in March of 2000. It is at 2% today. If we are to plug 6% into today's valuation models (not 2%), today's valuation levels go from incredibly expensive to "the most expensive ever".

Now, one can argue that we are comparing oranges to apples here. I would have to disagree. If we want to compare today's valuation levels to 2000 levels, we have to use 2000's discount rate. It is only then that we realize just how out of touch with reality today's stock market is. That is to say, there is no way in hell this ends well. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014/15-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014/15-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please NoteA bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. February 25th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why Today's Stock Market Is More Expensive Than NASDAQ 2000 Bubble Google