Can President Trump Win Anything Ever Again – Highly Improbable

As you watch the video above a dark contrast emerges. (Watch and decide).

President Trump spoke for 10 minutes about the US infrastructure and his plans to streamline or speed up the approval process. I think any reasonable person would agree, more or less, with everything he had to say.

When the floor was opened for questions, the media proceeded to spend the next 10 minutes turning Mr. Trump into a some sort of a Neo-Nazi slave owner. As crazy as that might sound.

For our purposes, an important question emerges.

Considering today's environment, will President Trump be able to get his tax cuts and budget plans through, and if not, what does that mean for the stock market?

Well, just look at the fallout already.

Republicans turn on Trump as the White House insists he is a 'voice for unity' who is 'entirely correct' to blame both sides for violence at neo-Nazi rally and defend 'fine people' among white supremacists

  • 'There's blame on both sides,' President Trump said Tuesday of a deadly Nazi rally in Virginia
  • Some Republican lawmakers quickly shoved back at Trump, criticizing him for saying left-wing counter-protesters shared the blame
  • 'White supremacy groups will see being assigned only 50% of blame as a win. We can not allow this old evil to be resurrected,' Sen. Marco Rubio wrote
  • Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: 'Back to relativism when dealing with KKK, Nazi sympathizers, white supremacists? Just no'
  • Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd told CNN that he had a head-hanging single word of advice for Trump: 'Apologize'
  • Despite the backlash, the White House is standing by the president, saying he was 'entirely correct' to blame 'both sides,' according to a talking points memo
  • Trump's words were quickly denounced by Democrats as an attempt to draw moral equivalence between Nazis and liberal activists
  • White House Chief of Staff John Kelly was photographed with hunched shoulders, arms crossed, and standing stony-faced during his boss' bizarre display at Trump Tower

You can just about summarize all of the above with crazy and sad.

In other words and for the reasons discussed here before, there is no snowball's chance in hell that Mr. Trump gets his agenda through. That means a fiscal bloodbath over the budget over the next few months and no tax cuts. We only imagine what that would mean for the stock market selling at a Shiller's S&P Adjusted P/E Ratio of 30.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 15th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 14th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.67  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.09 - neutral..
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 989.62 - overbought. Daily at 53.41 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -35. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


 

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 12th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 70.84  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 55.67 - neutral..
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 93.14 - overbought. Daily at 59.61 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -82. Oversold.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 7th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow has broken above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.30  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 79.66  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 77.68 - overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,850 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 99.66- overbought. Daily at 98.75 -overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -17. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest increased somewhat. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 1.5X and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Trade Of The Day – TLT – US Treasury

We executed a trade in the US Treasury (TLT) a few weeks ago at $128.50  Find out what that trade was (buy, sell, long or short) and why by Clicking Here

Shocking: Why This Bull Market Can Continue Forever

When investors look back in history they are often amazed how they couldn't see the forest through the trees.

Back in 2000 it was the new economy and "this time is different" valuation metrics. The tech stocks and bearish fools on Wall Streets who couldn't understand the "new" market. In 2007 it was "real estate never goes down" and outright mortgage fraud securitization game.

Well, we might be right at one of those junctures today. With valuation levels at historic highs and hard economic data collapsing, some of the most prominent bulls out there are beginning to suggest that this market will never go down. Consider the following......

Jim Paulsen: "The Bull Market Could Continue Forever"

 "We've got a fully employed economy, rising real wages. We restarted the corporate earnings cycle. We've got strong confidence among business and consumers."

"The kick is we can do all of this without aggravating inflation and interest rates."

"If that's going to continue, I think the bull market could continue to forever."

My question is rather simple.....haven't we seen this movie before? 

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times........

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 5th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow has broken above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.30  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 79.39  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 76.68 - overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,850 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 97.20- overbought. Daily at 97.74 -overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -19. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest increased somewhat. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 1.5X and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Trade Of The Day – The US Dollar

We executed a trade in the USD (DXY) two weeks ago at $94.5000  Find out what that trade was (buy, sell, long or short) and why by Clicking Here

Looking At The Glass Half Empty – Why A Substantial Market Correction Might Be Unavoidable

By now most bears are a laughing stock of the investment community. After all, nothing can possibly stop this stock market advance. Even though valuations find themselves at historic all time highs.

I mean, seriously, even President Trump himself has acknowledged that this market is one directional by taking complete ownership of it. What can possibly go wrong - right?

Well, here are a few reasons you might want to consider.

3 reasons a stock-market correction is coming in late summer or early fall

1. The Transports are diverging from the Industrials. (Chart Above)

The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +0.30%  is down almost 6% from its mid-July all-time high through Wednesday. That’s no catastrophe, but it’s a striking divergence from the records being clocked by the other major averages. It’s also a warning flag, since Dow Theory holds that the Transports must confirm the Dow Industrials’ move to all-time highs for the bull to continue.

Known as the Dow Theory non-confirmation. Take a look at the chart above. Not only are the Transports not confirming, they have put in a long-term double top formation. Unable to breakout above 2014 highs. This is a very weak formation and something definitely doesn't smell right here.

2. Earnings aren’t giving stocks the pop they used to. 

So far, the second-quarter earnings season has been very good. As of last Friday, 73% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates, according to FactSet. Blended earnings growth is a solid 9.1%.

Fair enough. However,  Shiller Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio is at 30. The highest in history if we adjust for 2000 distortions. Even higher than 1929 top. If anyone wants to pay that much for liquidity/speculative driven earnings - be my guest.

3. Washington faces big gridlock. 

Anyone who thought that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress would end Washington gridlock and make the federal government function smoothly must have been smoking something. After the health-care fiasco, how can anyone expect this fractured Congress to do anything big?

We have been discussing this for some time now. It can be argued that the stock market is pricing in a massive tax cut and deregulation. Hence the rally we saw off of November 2016 lows. Yet, and as we have seen thus far, all of that might be nothing but a big pipe dream as President Trump has been unable to get anything of significance passed.

Tax cuts? To be honest I would be surprised if they can get the debt ceiling raised. A major bloodbath associated with Washington's gridlock might indeed be on the way.Invest accordingly.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.