Is This Market Bulletproof Or Drawing Its Last Breath?

Daily Chart May 22st InvestWithAlex

5/22/2015 - A negative day with the Dow Jones down 54 points (-0.30%) and the Nasdaq down 1 point (-0.03%) 

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later this year. And while we won't have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

A few things to get through before our long weekend starts. 

First, today's stock market appears bulletproof. The US Economy is on a verge of an "official" recession (no matter what Janet Yellen says), macro data is collapsing, the FED is about to hike rates and the stock market is sitting in an overvaluation bubble. Yet, the market refuses to go down. For instance, just this week....

Manufacturing PMI - Miss/Drop. Existing Home Sales - Miss/Drop. Philly Fed - Miss/Drop. Economic Confidence - Miss/Drop

....and the stock market barely budged. This is either really good or really-really bad. David Stockman believes its latter: Stocks and bonds will 'crash soon'

Stocks and bonds are on the verge of a catastrophic collapse. Everything is totally distorted and there is a day of reckoning coming down the pike.

While I would have to agree that everything is distorted, we WON'T have a crash here. That is not what my mathematical and timing work shows. There was a possibility of a market crash in October of 2014, but the market was able to push through. Yes, the market will go through a substantial 2 year bear leg in 2015-2017, but we will not have a rapid 20-30% decline/crash.

In fact, my work suggests that the market will drive both bulls and bears up the wall over the next two years. That is to say, we will be stuck in an environment where only the market timers will be able to make money.

Finally, bulls are hopeful that M&A activity will save this market. In a quiet stock market, whispers of an M&A wave Considering everything else, this is not a good sing. Corporate buybacks, M&A and foreign investors. All signs that the stock market is near a major top. Corporations are not different from individual investors. They tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom. How many M&A were there at the bottom in 2008-2009? I rest my case.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 22nd, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Is This Market Bulletproof Or Drawing Its Last Breath? Google

The New “Normal” -OR- The Calm Before The Storm?

Charts below provide us with a fairly good summary of where we are today. 

  1. The NYSE (largest index by capitalization) hasn't gone anywhere in 11 months. - Distribution of consolidation?
  2. The Dow hasn't been in such a tight trading range in over 100 years. The Dow hasn't done this in over 100 years: Technician - Of course, CNBC managed to put a positive spin on it - no surprise there.
  3. VIX/VXX are either collapsing to new lows or scratching the bottom of their trading ranges.

I have said it before and I will say it again. The market is compressing and getting ready for a massive move. And like a giant spring, it is accumulating energy. The only remaining questions are A. When will this move occur and B. In which direction??? If you would like to find that out, please Click Here   

NYSE Chart investwithalextrading range investwithalex

vxx2

z32

The New "Normal" -OR- The Calm Before The Storm? Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

investment grin of the day 66 investwithaelx

z33

Investment Grin Of The Day Google

The Dow Theory Is Flashing A Red Light

Despite the Dow Jones sitting near its all time highs, the Dow Transports are not confirming. Not only are they not confirming, they might be getting ready to breakdown. Just FYI.

Dow Transports 4 investwithalex

Dow Transports 5 investwithalex

Second chart is courtesy of Mark Ackerman: A Financial Engineer,Brilliant Wharton Graduate Using Elliot Wave Principle Fractals and Fibbs as well as Quant Models for analysis of different 18 Asset Classes, 35 years of trading experience. Z30

The Dow Theory Is Flashing A Red Light Google

Alert: Smart Money Is Trying To Distribute Apple (AAPL) To Fools

Daily Chart May 21st InvestWithAlex

5/21/2015 - A positive day with the Dow Jones up 2 points (+0.01%) and Nasdaq up 20 points (+0.39%)

I firmly believe that the overall market and Apple (AAPL) will crack at the same time. Hence, overwhelmingly bullish coverage of the company and recent analyst upgrades should cause some concern. For instance.....

There is another name for all of the above. Distribution. The smart money is trying to unload their massive positions to unsuspecting retail investors in an illiquid market. A game that is as old as the stock market itself.

Listen, I don't have anything against Apple. It is one of the best performing companies out there. Yes, it is overvalued, but its valuation is not as bad as some of the junk floating in the market today.

I am merely pointing out that retail investors shouldn't be sucked into a game that they cannot win. Make no mistake, once Icahn, Morgan Stanley and the rest of the big guys unload their long positions (if they are smart), Apple's stock will fall like a brick. Just as the market will. That is to say, the opportunity with AAPL might be on the short side of the trade, not long.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 21st, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Alert: Smart Money Is Trying To Distribute Apple (AAPL) To Fools Google

Why You Should Continue To Stay Away From Bitcoin

bitcoin-price-investwithalex

After its spectacular run up in 2013 and subsequent crash, Bitcoin has somewhat stabilized at around $250 (although the trend is still down). So much so that mainstream media is once again picking up the coverage Silicon Valley banks on Bitcoin as a way to overtake Wall Street

Yet, my opinion about it hasn't changed. At the end of the day Bitcoin still has a real possibility of going to ZERO. Let's take another look.

Is Bitcoin a legitimate currency, a speculative investment or the future?  This is a complex matter to discuss as there could be an infinite number of arguments made for or against it. However, here are some basic points to understand....

  1. Understand that Bitcoin is still a pure speculation at this stage. There is nothing to back it up and there is nothing to assign any sort of fundamental value to it.   As such, speculate away, but know that while it can appreciate significantly it can also go to zero in no time.
  2. The US Government can crush it at will and at any time. Yes, I know that it cannot be controlled by the government, it is independent and out there on the net. However, don't be a fool.  The US Government, if it really wants to, can destroy Bitcoin in a matter of hours.
  3. There is very little volume and the total value as a currency is very low. While that can be an advantage when the currency is going up, good luck trying to get out of it while it is heading down.  Plus, the fact that people in China see it as an investment vehicle now is a huge negative red flag.

Basically, there is no fundamental value to invest in Bitcoin at this stage. While it can appreciate significantly, know that all gains would be out of pure speculation. I repeat, there are no fundamentals to back it up.  On the flip side, it can go to zero either because of speculation or if the US Government decides (for whatever reason) to pull a plug on it. In other words, continue to stay away.  

z32

Why You Should Continue To Stay Away From Bitcoin Google

Investment Wisdom Of The Day

investment wisdom 4 investiwithalex

Z31

Investment Wisdom Of The Day Google

Peak BubbleS ???

In 2000 we had a tech induced stock market bubble. In 2007 we had a real estate finance bubble.

Is it possible that we now function in an environment where all four bubbles are present? To be more specific, the stock market bubble, financial/QE bubble, tech bubble and real estate's dead cat bounce bubble.

Not according to the San Francisco Fed President John Williams (watch the video below). In other words, nothing to worry about. In fact, you should buy a house in San Francisco and invest in Uber at a $50 Billion valuation. Then pick up a few shares of Facebook and spend the rest of you capital on buying out of money call options on QQQ. Again, nothing to worry about, it will all come up roses.

I don't know about you, but I would rather listen to Mark Cuban. What Most People Don’t Know About Mark Cuban’s Bubble Call

z33

Peak BubbleS ??? Google

Why The FED MUST Reload

Daily Chart May 20th InvestWithAlex

5/20/2015 - Another mixed day with the Dow Jones down 26 points (-0.14%) and the Nasdaq up 1.71 (+0.03%). 

A massive and rather rapid stock market decline is coming later on this year. And while we won't have a crash, considering the amount of margin debt out there, quite a few people will get wiped out. If you would like to find out exactly when this move will develop, to the day, please Click Here. 

Today's FOMC Minutes had a little bit for everyone. Bulls, bears, day trading retirees and as Jim Cramer calls them, financial unbelievers. To be more specific, Q-1 weakness was temporary, maybe they will raise rates in June, maybe not, etc.. With that in mind, let's look at the subject matter from a rational point of view.

As of today, the FED is facing the following setup.

  • Massive stock market and other asset bubbles.
  • Slowing economy and collapsing macro data. We are a stone throws away from an "official" recession. I can argue we are already in one.
  • Zero interest rates and limited options to stimulate the economy further.

As a result, the FED has only two options.

  1. Raise interest rates NOW in order to reload their recession fighting toolkit before the next recession hits. Again, we are nearly there.
  2. Cancel rate hikes and eventually introduce QE4 to further "stimulate" the economy. Also known as, maintaining financial market stability. This scenario includes postponing interest rate hikes until we are in a recession.

You don't have to be a genius to figure out which scenario the stock market is betting on. And while it would be prudent for the FED to reload now, in reality, no one really knows what they will do. I don't think they know. 

Finally, here is something to think about. There is no guarantee that the stock market won't crater even if the FED introduces another round of QE while cancelling interest rate hikes. That's how complex today's macro economic setup is. I can come up with at least a half a dozen fundamental cases where such an outcome would play out.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2015-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2015-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE.

(***Please Note: A bear market might have started already, I am simply not disclosing this information. Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. May 20th, 2015  InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Why The FED MUST Reload Google

Can Investors Get Used To A “Terrible” Economy?

the US Economy InvestwithalexNot at today's valuation levels. That would be impossible. Some top economists are starting to jump ship into the view I first outlined here over two years ago.

Listen, this is rather simple. The PERCEIVED economic growth we have experienced over the last 5 years had nothing to do with reality. It was a function of liquidity, QE and zero interest rates. Imagine being broke and then somehow managing to get a credit line for a $1 Million shopping spree. That is precisely what happened to the US Economy over the last few years.  It feels good while it lasts, but it doesn't accomplish anything.

Now, there is nothing left to propel us forward and to instigate true economic growth. Plus, we have borrowed from the future. That is to say, the time to pay the piper might soon be at hand.

z33

Can Investors Get Used To A "Terrible" Economy? Google