A Crash Or Will This Bounce Continue…..What’s Next?

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daily chart AOctober 24 2014

10/24/2014 – Another up day with the Dow Jones up 128 points (+0.77%) and the Nasdaq up 31 points (+0.69%)

When the market hit bottom on October 15th, I told my subscribers to cover their short positions and to go long as soon as the reversal confirmation was obtained. That confirmation arrived the following day and as you can imagine we have benefited greatly on the long side. Yet, the main question remains…….what’s next…….will the market crash or will it bounce? You can find the exact answer by CLICKING HERE. For now, lets discuss the case for a crash.

The Case For A Crash……

Over the last couple of months a lot of hoopla has been made about comparing 1982-1987 bull market (including the 1987 crash) to today’s stock market environment. Below is one of such charts for your consideration.

1987 crash

One of the primary things that people miss about these comparisons is the time frame associated with such moves. For instance, the bull market between August 1982 bottom and August 1987 top lasted exactly 5 years. The bull market between March 6th, 2009 and today has been in existence for 5 years and 4 months. Making the comparison between 1987 top and 2014 top obsolete.

Great news…..right? Not really.

Today’s market matches another pattern and this pattern makes 1987 crash look like child’s play. Over the last 224 years (since the market first started trading in 1790) the market exhibited only ONE 5-Year uninterrupted bull market cycle that extended for 5 years and 4 months. The longest bull market cycle ever (when counted as a separate unit). That ONE pattern led right into the 1929 stock market crash.

To be more specific, the Dow set a secondary bottom in early May of 1924 and then went on a rampage bull market that terminated on September 3rd, 1929 (exact top). Again, exactly 5 years and 4 months later. Thereafter, the Dow distributed for 6 weeks before initiating its crash sequence on October 24, 1929. By November 13th, 1929 the Dow was down 49%. A devastating collapse.

Now, I know what you are thinking. “People were kind of dumb back then. The market was clearly in a speculative bubble and even a monkey with half a brain could have seen the 1929 crash coming from a mile away”.  WRONG. Human nature never changes. Case and point, I present to you probably the smartest and the wealthiest businessman who ever lived, Mr. John D. Rockeffeller (his net worth was over $200 Billion in today’s money).

October  30, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has one of its best days ever, rocketing up 29 points, or 12.3%, to 258 as John D. Rockefeller, Sr. announces: “There is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week. My son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” The Dow goes on to lose 84.1% more of its value before bottoming out on July 8, 1932.

I think his quote speaks for itself.  Just as in 1929, 99.99% of people today are not aware of where we are. Back to 2014. I have already beaten the fundamental/economic/market horse and today’s stock market overvaluation/speculation levels to death. Both, in my daily blog and in my weekly updates. If you need more information, please revisit my comprehensive report The Bear Market of 2014-2017 Is Starting. Why, How & When

With that said, my precise mathematical and timing analysis works on a completely different level. Instead of anticipating what will happen based on fundamental analysis or economic data, my work tells you exactly what will happen and most importantly, WHEN. Making technical, fundamental and economic analysis obsolete.

So, will we have a 1929 style crash over the next few months?  Unfortunately, such information is only available to my subscribers. Including the exact date of the 2014 market top and what will happen thereafter.

Think about it this way.  You really have two options.

  • You Decide To Ignore This Warning:  If the 1929 type of a crash does occur, you will lose 50% of your net worth in a matter of days.  By that point, it will be too late.  It won’t be too late to jump out of the window, but it will be too late to do anything about it.  And for what, to save $49 a month?
  • If You Are To Check Out My Member Section:  If the 1929 type of a crash does occur you will be able to

1. Avoid the crash, preserve your capital and buy stocks at giveaway prices.  
2. Make a fortune on the short side (if you trade on the short side). 

So, at the risk of sounding too salesy, I am beating this drum as hard as I can in order to warn as many people as I can. This newsletter service is not my primary source of income (not even close) and it won’t make one bit of a difference to me if you sign up.  Again, I am just trying to warn as many people as I can. So, what are you waiting for? Reserve your spot (limited space and we only have a few spots left for October) for your FREE 14-day trial today and check out our forecast. I cannot stress how incredibly important this update is. Trust me; the grandchildren of your grandchildren will thank me.

Important Announcement: It is highly probable that I will double the price of my service over the next 90-120 days while getting rid of the monthly subscription option. While this change does not impact existing subscribers (they are locked in for life), all new subscribers will have to pay at least $599/year. This change will happen fairly soon. In other words, if you have ever considered a subscription, the time to get in is NOW. 

MATHEMATICAL & TIMING ANALYSIS:  

(*** Please Note: The information within this section is only available to my premium subscribers. If you are a premium subscriber please Click Here to log in. If  you would be interested in becoming a subscriber and gaining access to the most accurate forecasting service available anywhere, a forecasting service that gives you exact turning points in both price and time, please Click Here to learn more and to reserve your spot.Don’t forget, we have a risk free 14-day trial).

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A Crash Or Will This Bounce Continue…..What’s Next?  Google

Sell Gold & Buy Stocks: Stupidest Investment Advice Ever?

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These bozos think you should Dump gold and buy stocks.

While this advice might not be as bad as to buy stocks on margin in October of 1929,  it is not that far behind. Now, before I go any further allow me to disclose that I am NOT a gold bug, bull, bear or any other label you can stick on someone. I am simply here to make money through the use of advanced mathematical/timing/fundamental/technical work and a risk averse trading approach.

While I do not own gold at the time (the timing is wrong), to tell someone to sell their “undervalued” gold right before its massive and sustained rally in order to speculate in stocks that have long detached from any reasonable valuation reality is…..well….idiotic.

In fact, if there was ever a trade that I would advice against, this would be it. I had a much more detailed article on Gold over last few days and you can check it out for a better overview As Gold Continues To Collapse, What’s Next?  In terms of equity markets, today’s situation is identical to the one at 2000 and 2007 tops and I wouldn’t touch any equity on the long side with a ten foot pole.

What do you think? Would love to see your comments. 

Z30

Investment Grin Of The Day

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Investment Grin Of The Day Google

Buying Panic Or Volumeless Bounce?

daily chart AOctober 23 2014

10/23/2014 – A big up day with the Dow Jones up 215 points (+1.31%) and the Nasdaq up 70 points (+1.60%).

The stock market continues to perform exactly as forecasted. If you would be interested in learning what happens next, please Click Here. 

Over the last few days I have suggested that about 95% of all market pundits and participants anticipate a quick recovery and an all time high by the end of the year. Perhaps no one embodies the attitude more than Cramer: Time to shop the drop

Despite all the bullish hoopla and today’s “buy, buy, buy” panic, there are some people out there who do make sense. This Rise Looks Like A Bear Market Rally, And That Changes Everything.

The sizable, sharp stock drop has now been followed by an equally sharp, albeit smaller, run-up. Unfortunately, this behavior is indicative of a “bear market rally” rather than a post-correction base-building period. Confirming this view is the considerable and widespread weakness evident among individual stocks.

 I couldn’t agree more. 

We perhaps could still consider these negatives as acceptable if underlying, fundamental conditions firmly supported a bull market vision. However, the actual conditions have increasingly raised questions, concerns and uncertainty – issues that better match a bear market than a bull one: etc…..

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 23rd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

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Buying Panic Or Volumeless Bounce?  Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

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Investment Grin Of The Day Google

The Shocking Truth Behind Today’s Stock Market

daily chart AOctober 22 2014

10/22/2014 – A negative day with the Dow Jones down 153 points (-0.92%) and the Nasdaq down 37 points (-0.83%). 

The market continues to perform exactly as anticipated. In the meantime, most people believe the correction is over. After October dip, stocks may be ready for a rip.  A quick summary:

In 11 past years, the S&P has hit a 12-month high in September before correcting at least 5 percent from that high at some point in October, according to Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader. Goepfert went on to find that in the Novembers that followed, the S&P had a positive month in eight of 11 times. Even more impressive, the market was positive through December in 10 of 11 years, gaining at least 3 percent in each year besides the infamous 1929.

Again, the analysis above is idiotic. Anyone who makes investment decisions based on the above is bound to lose a lot of money. It is as simple as that.

Instead…. consider the following. 

  • The stock market is incredibly overpriced. By most valuation metrics. With some valuations pushing 2007 and 2000 (nasdaq) tops.
  • The 5 year bull market cycle is now over.
  • We are still in a 17 year secular bear market that started in 2000. The last 2-3 years are always down.
  • There are no bears left. Everyone has capitulated.
  • Bulls see every 5-10% correction as a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Like today.
  • The FED is tightening and any remaining QE velocity is collapsing.
  • Massive divergences. Particularly with the bond market.
  • Smart investors like Icahn, Soros, Faber, Rogers are shorting this market.
  • Etc….I can list another 20 points, but you get the idea.

Still think the Dow will be 20,000 by the end of the year? Yeah……good luck with that.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 22nd, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

The Shocking Truth Behind Today’s Stock Market Google

Want To Bet Against Carl Icahn?

Carl Icahn thinks that the high yield market is in a massive bubble. Meaning, if the high yield market implodes, so will the stock market. Just like in 2007-2009.  Do you want to bet against Carl? Be my guest….

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE VIDEO

Z30

Want To Bet Against Carl Icahn? Google

Did We Hit A “Crisis” Bottom On October 14th?

daily chart AOctober 21 2014

10/21/2014 – A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 214 points (+1.30%) and the Nasdaq up 103 points (+2.40%).

Oftentimes people make simplistic comparisons in the stock market and assume that their analysis is top notch. That is a very dangerous game to play. Case and point, this MarketWatch article claims that the market is repeating the pattern from 4-years ago. The deja-vu selloff is reaching a ‘crisis bottom’: McClellan

Why 4 years? I have no idea. I have studied every cycle under the sun and I can assure you that there is no 4 year cycle in the stock market. They might as well have picked out any similar pattern, even from 100 years ago, in order to claim the pattern is repeating. This is a fools game. If there is no fixed methodology to support cyclical breakdown, such cycles should not be used.

Of course, the underlying notion is that a 10% selloff is somehow indicative of a major bull market rally to come. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard that the bottom is in, the Santa Claus rally is coming and the FED’s will never let the market fall before the election/Christmas.

The roots of the recent stock market selloff look very familiar to investment newsletter writer Tom McClellan, and that’s making him very bullish.

Perhaps it is as simple as that. Yet, maybe…..just maybe, the pattern from 4 years ago has nothing to do with the stock market of today. And instead of getting a rally towards the end of the year, Bad Santa might play a cruel joke on your portfolio. Did you ever consider that? If you would be interested in finding out what happens next, please Click Here. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 21st, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Did We Hit A “Crisis” Bottom On October 14th? Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

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Investment Grin Of The Day Google

Correction Over?

daily chart AOctober 20 2014

10/18/2014 – An up day with the Dow Jones up 19 points (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq up 58 points (1.38%).

The market continues to behave exactly as forecasted. If you would like to know what happens next, please Click Here. 

Going into August and September most market pundits talked about a 10% correction. Well, as of last weeks bottom the Dow corrected 8.6% and the Nasdaq corrected 10.7%. What’s more, some insiders are buying hand over fist. Huge Market Sell-Off Sparks Some Gigantic Insider Buying. Finally, most bulls are out in force once again and calling for the Dow 20,000 at year end.

Perfect…..right? 

Not so fast. A strong argument could be made that the worst is yet to come. Sure, if the last 5.5 year bull market is used as a reference point, it would be safe to assume that the market will shrug off all fundamental concerns in order to set a new all time high by the end of the year. However, what if the said bull market is now over and we are now in the very early stages of a bear market? Well, given the velocity of the initial sell off, one thing is certain, it won’t be pretty. If you would be interested in learning exactly where we are and what’s next, click here. 

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 20th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Correction Over?  Google

Investment Grin Of The Day

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Investment Grin Of The Day  Google

Stupidity Olympics: FED Vs. IMF

daily chart AOctober 17 201410/17/2014 – A strong up day with the Dow Jones up 263 points (+1.63%) and the Nasdaq up 41 points (+0.97%). 

The stock market continues to perform exactly as anticipated. In fact, yesterday I instructed my subscribers to cover our short positions. Here is the snippet from our Intraday update. If you would like to know what happens next, Click Here. Trust me…..you need to know.

Intraday Update: October 16th, 2014:  ***** PM. Considering where the market is I will cover now and ******.This would give us a very good exit point and *****. etc….. ****- information not available in the free forum

Now, let’s get to Stupidity Olympics: FED Vs. IMF

Fed official wants to keep up QE as inflation expectations slip

Well, that was fast. Throughout 2014 I have argued that not only will the FED not raise interest rates, they will be re-introducing QE as soon as the stock market tanks. With one minor difference as compared to 2007-2009. They can’t cut interest rates (there is nothing to cut) and the velocity of any money/QE is now exhausted. In other words, the FED has already used their Bazooka.

What I didn’t realize is that it would take an insignificant drop of just 1,500 points on the Dow to bring the topic back up for discussion. Sheer stupidity.

IMF: Market Sell-off May Have Been ‘Over-Reaction’

There are a number of things to consider here. From what I have seen, the IMF would not know anything about financial markets. Even if financial markets walked up and hit them in the face. If there was ever an organization that was formed solely for wasting taxpayers money (remember Greece and Cyprus), IMF is it. Second, when the EU Bureaucrats/IMF tell you not to panic…..you know what to do……..PANIC. Better yet, short everything in sight.

I cannot wait for an explanation Christine Lagarde will deliver at the market bottom. I fathom something along the lines of “No one could have seen it coming”. Lunacy.

Yet, the Gold Medal clearly goes to…….

And while the IMF and the FED came in dead heat,  the gold medal clearly goes to the Obama Administration for dropping the ball on Ebola, Syria, Iraq, ISIS, etc…. and for working overtime on trying to start a nuclear war with Russia. Have a good weekend everyone.

This conclusion is further supported by my mathematical and timing work. It clearly shows a severe bear market between 2014-2017. In fact, when it starts it will very quickly retrace most of the gains accrued over the last few years.  If you would be interested in learning when the bear market of 2014-2017 will start (to the day) and its internal composition, please CLICK HERE

(***Please Note: Due to my obligations to my Subscribers I am unable to provide you with more exact forecasts. In fact, I am being “Wishy Washy” at best with my FREE daily updates here. If you would be interested in exact forecasts, dates, times and precise daily coverage, please Click Here). Daily Stock Market Update. October 17th, 2014 InvestWithAlex.com

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!

Stupidity Olympics: FED Vs. IMF Google