How Fast Will The Market Collapse If Everyone Agrees We Are In A Massive Bubble

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I have been arguing that the stock market is incredibly overvalued for quite some time now. This conclusion can be very easily ascertained from studying Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E chart below. To very quickly summarized, today's valuation levels are the highest in history. Higher than 1929 and higher than 2000 if we adjust for tech earnings distortions.But wait a second, it gets a lot worse...... 

With that in mind quite a few bulls are beginning to acknowledge the fact of overvaluation while admiring they are playing the game of musical chairs. For instance...

Two-thirds of U.S. investors think stocks are overvalued

Nearly two-thirds of investors—65%—say the U.S. equity market is overvalued, the highest percentage on record.

All of the above brings out an important question......

If most investors believe the stock market is overvalued, as they consciously continue to play on the long side, how fast/powerful will the upcoming decline be? 

Well, Murphy's Law and the stock market history suggests the door will be slammed with incredible speed. Yes, I am talking about a powerful crash that will wipe up years of gains in a matter of days. If not hours.

In other words, those who think they will be able to exit in an orderly fashion once the market confirms breakdown are kidding themselves. All exit doors will be shut close in an instance. The market suggests this is the only possible outcome at this point.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 18th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.66 Off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 64.94  - neutral.Daily RSI is at 43.63 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,950 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 83.08 - overbought. Daily at 23.25 - oversold.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -49. Neutral to slightly oversold..
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest was lower. Now at 80K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has shifted slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 1.5X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Investment Wisdom Of The Day

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 17th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Trade Of The Century???

As the chart above suggests, VIX is tracing out a beautiful long-term compressing triangle/wedge. Technical analysis tells us that when it completes, VIX should surge and/or stage a massive move higher. Possibly in a very violent fashion.

If you would like to find out exactly when that happens and what that means for the stock market, please CLICK HERE. 

The FED: A Bunch Of Buffoons Or Highly Intelligent Ponzi Operators

I have discussed this in the past, but my curiosity remains. Here is the latest "conundrum", the FED can't figure out why inflation is decelerating.

Federal Reserve officials are looking under the hood of their most basic inflation models and starting to ask if something is wrong.

Minutes from the July 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed a revealing debate over why the economy isn’t producing more inflation in a time of easy financial conditions, tight labor markets and solid economic growth.

The central bank has missed its 2 percent price goal for most of the past five years. Still, a majority of FOMC participants favor further rate increases. The July minutes showedan intensifying debate over whether that is the right policy response.

“These minutes to me were troubling,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “They don’t have their confidence in their policy decisions; and they don’t have confidence that they can provide the right kind of guidance.”

Well, there is really nothing mysterious about any of this. Even a retarded buffoon can figure this one out. Let alone a Harvard Economist. 

When you flood the financial system with unlimited credit at zero interest rates everything is performing at its peak. For the time being and artificially, of course. However, when everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs, as is the case today, velocity of money slows down and inflation disappears. That is prior to turning into an outright deflationary collapse or debt liquidation.

The second point is, the inflation they are so blatantly unable to find is on clear display in the stock market. How else can you explain Shiller's P/E Ratio at an all time high. Higher than 1929 and arguably 2000 if we adjust for tech earnings distortions. That's where all of that "FREE MONEY" went. Straight to speculation.

My view remains, they are either cretins for not understanding this or they do. In which case they are knowingly running the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of humanity.

Once thing is certain, scary times ahead. 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 16th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 73.06  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 67.32 - slightly overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 90.26 - overbought. Daily at 57.54 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -31. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


 

Can President Trump Win Anything Ever Again – Highly Improbable

As you watch the video above a dark contrast emerges. (Watch and decide).

President Trump spoke for 10 minutes about the US infrastructure and his plans to streamline or speed up the approval process. I think any reasonable person would agree, more or less, with everything he had to say.

When the floor was opened for questions, the media proceeded to spend the next 10 minutes turning Mr. Trump into a some sort of a Neo-Nazi slave owner. As crazy as that might sound.

For our purposes, an important question emerges.

Considering today's environment, will President Trump be able to get his tax cuts and budget plans through, and if not, what does that mean for the stock market?

Well, just look at the fallout already.

Republicans turn on Trump as the White House insists he is a 'voice for unity' who is 'entirely correct' to blame both sides for violence at neo-Nazi rally and defend 'fine people' among white supremacists

  • 'There's blame on both sides,' President Trump said Tuesday of a deadly Nazi rally in Virginia
  • Some Republican lawmakers quickly shoved back at Trump, criticizing him for saying left-wing counter-protesters shared the blame
  • 'White supremacy groups will see being assigned only 50% of blame as a win. We can not allow this old evil to be resurrected,' Sen. Marco Rubio wrote
  • Florida Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: 'Back to relativism when dealing with KKK, Nazi sympathizers, white supremacists? Just no'
  • Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd told CNN that he had a head-hanging single word of advice for Trump: 'Apologize'
  • Despite the backlash, the White House is standing by the president, saying he was 'entirely correct' to blame 'both sides,' according to a talking points memo
  • Trump's words were quickly denounced by Democrats as an attempt to draw moral equivalence between Nazis and liberal activists
  • White House Chief of Staff John Kelly was photographed with hunched shoulders, arms crossed, and standing stony-faced during his boss' bizarre display at Trump Tower

You can just about summarize all of the above with crazy and sad.

In other words and for the reasons discussed here before, there is no snowball's chance in hell that Mr. Trump gets his agenda through. That means a fiscal bloodbath over the budget over the next few months and no tax cuts. We only imagine what that would mean for the stock market selling at a Shiller's S&P Adjusted P/E Ratio of 30.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 15th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – August 14th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back below 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.89 Off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.67  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.09 - neutral..
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 989.62 - overbought. Daily at 53.41 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -35. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX have spiked higher off of their historic lows during the week. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 100K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is at 2X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.