Tag: stocks

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Stock Market Update, January 10th ,2014

daily chart Jan10, 2014

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Make no mistake. A severe bear market is coming and will start in 2014. That has always been my position and my advanced mathematical work confirms. If you would like to get a little bit more information, please click on the report at the bottom of this post to learn more. 

Fundamentally speaking, there is no reason for the market to be at these levels. The rally you see has been caused by a number of things. 1. Massive credit infusion into the financial markets/economy in the form of QE by the FED to the tune of $85 Billion per month. 2. Pure speculation and people panicking into stocks. 3. Market structure based on my mathematical work. Also known as, the market must complete its up move before reversing downward. 

Technically speaking, while the market is showing signs of a fatigue and a roll over, this is not yet the top.  Either way, we have to wait for a technical confirmation before reversing position. My previous updates and various fundamental issues associated with the market remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

 Stock Market Update, January 10th, 2014

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The Secret Behind This Stock Market Run Up

 CNBC Writes: Smart Money: Smart money? Looks like it’s mom and pop

Happy bull investwithalex

For the most recent leg of the rally, it seems like the so-called smart money may not be so smart after all.

If that’s true, the smart money has been losing.

Employing even more conventional wisdom, that might suggest the market is forming a top and ready to fall, as retail investors are often thought of as the last ones to a rally.

That thinking, though, is getting challenged.

There’s no doubt the retail investor has warmed up to the market in 2013 after sitting out much of the gains since the March 2009 lows. The mom-and-pop crowd ripped just short of $300 billion out of mutual funds from the 2009 low point through the end of 2012 even as the market gained more than 110 percent during the span.

Read The Rest Of The Article

As I have mentioned in my previous posts, the overall BULLISH psychological backdrop is now at the extreme and flashing warning signs.

Various metrics aside, I see very few bears.  Even people who used to be bears and now bulls.  All popular media is overwhelmingly BULLISH. Even if the article mentions “a possible drop” such argument is immediately counter attacked by stating something to the tune of “If the market drops it would be a wonderful buying opportunity to add more stocks”.

The article above is no different. It clearly illustrates how bullish everyone is. It’s a well known fact that Retail investors are the last ones on/off and as such could not be considered as “smart money”. Over 200 years of market data teaches us that. Yet, somehow the article twists it to be so.  Simply put, neither the market nor investors can do wrong in this market.

Will this continue? I do remember seeing similar type of prevailing BULLISH psychology before, at 2000 and 2007 tops. We all know how that ended. 

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The Secret Behind This Stock Market Run Up 

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Stock Market Update, December 13, 2013

daily chart Dec 13, 2013  

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Even though in the short-term the market has reversed itself and has turned bearish, the long term bull remains very much intact. As such, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. If you would like to know the exact date of the turn, I will make that information available in early 2014. 

For now, the market continues to linger around its all time highs. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  


  Stock Market Update, December 13, 2013

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Stock Market Update, December 6th, 2013

daily chart Dec 6, 2013  

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Even though the market has reversed itself, just a little bit, there is no change in our overall position for the time being. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. If you would like to know the exact date of the turn, I will make that information available in early 2014. 

For now, the market continues to linger around its all time highs. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Stock Market Update, December 6th, 2013

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Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

daily chart Nov 29, 2013

  

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. As my mathematical work clearly shows, the bear market will start in 2014. Would you like to know the exact date of the turn? I will make that information available in early 2014. 

For now, the market continues to push through it’s daily highs, behaving as anticipated. My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 22nd Report

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts.

If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Stock Market Update, November 29th, 2013

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A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

BloombergWrites: Subprime Loans Are Boosting Car Sales

subprime car loans

A woman came into Alan Helfman’s showroom in Houston in October looking to buy a car for her daily commute. Even though her credit score was below 500, in the bottom eighth percentile, she drove away with a new Dodge Dart. A year ago, “I would’ve told her don’t even bother coming in,” says Helfman, who owns River Oaks Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram, where sales rose about 20 percent this year. “But she had a good job, so I told her to bring a phone bill, a light bill, your last couple of paycheck stubs, and bring me some down payment.”

The New York Times Writes: New Boom in Subprime Loans, for Smaller Businesses

A small, little-known company from Missouri borrows hundreds of millions of dollars from two of the biggest names in Wall Street finance. The loans are rated subprime. What’s more, they carry few of the standard protections seen in ordinary debt, making them particularly risky bets.But investors clamor to buy pieces of the loans, one of which pays annual interest of at least 8.75 percent. Demand is so strong, some buyers have to settle for less than they wanted.

A scene from the years leading up to the financial crisis in 2008? No, last month.

It’s scary how predictable human animal is from the psychological perspective. In fact, contrary to a popular believe human psychology IS the primary driver behind the stock market volatility.

Just two quick observations. First, as the articles above indicate the subprime is back in a big way. In 2003-2007 it was the real estate market, where anyone who could (and even those who couldn’t) fog a mirror could get a massive real estate loan. Today you can see the same situation in car loans and loans for small businesses. Thank god the amounts are smaller. Second, the speculative bubble and the frenzy building in the stock market. Everyone is falling over each other predicting the Dow 20,000 or up +40% in 2014. Of course, exactly at the wrong time.

Where were these people at 2009 bottom? Did any of them predict the DOW going up over +150% between 2009 and today? Of course they didn’t. They were too busy screaming that the world is about to end and we are on the verge of another great depression. Now, with credit easily flowing again, we are committing the same mistakes. Those who can take a step outside the box should now be able to see how easy it is to profit from such insanity.

As I have said so many times before, the bear market will start in 2014. Get ready to short overvalued garbage and make a killing.  

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A Secret Way To Make A Killing In The Stock Market Over The Next 12 Month

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Stock Market Update, November 22, 2013

daily chart Nov 22, 2013

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. The market continues to push through it’s daily highs as it marches forward.  My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 15th Report. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

As we continue to hold our long position while waiting for the market reversal, right now might be a good time to start thinking about how you would liquidate your holding and/or re-allocate your capital once the bear market of 2014-2017 starts. If you would like to take it one step further, this is a good time to start researching SHORT opportunities.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

Stock Market Update, November 22, 201

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Warning: The Biggest Market Story No One Is Talking About

 

 

10 year November

Everyone is running their mouth. Bernanke is talking about indefinite QE, Yellen is saying that she will accommodate the markets any way that she can and Larry Summers is talking about 0% interest rates to avoid economic depression. All of that is garbage. 

The only thing that truly matter is the 10-Year Note chart above. As you can see the chart is extremely bullish. I have said numerous times here, it is fatal to believe that the FED’s can control interest rates. They can influence them over the short term, but interest rates will behave as they should over the long run. The chart above clearly indicates that interest rates have reversed their course and are climbing up. Given massive amount of leverage  and speculation in the system, even a misery 0.5% increase from this point on will have huge negative consequences. Should interest rates zoom up within a short period of time (which they might) there will be hell to pay.

This is the most important trend to watch going forward. So far the trend is incredibly bullish (for interest rates). This plays very well into my forecast of the bear market starting in 2014. This confirms it. 

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Stock Market Update, November 15th, 2013

daily chart Nov 15, 2013

 

Summary: Continue to maintain a LONG/HOLD position. 

Once again, no change since the last market update to alter my opinion. The market continues to push through it’s daily highs as it marches forward.  My previous updates remain right on the money. Please click on the links below to see them. 

November 8th Report.

November 1st Report.

With that said, I would like to point out two things that you must keep in mind.

1.  As of right now, everyone is asleep at the wheel.  Meaning the market is continuing its slow ascend and the volatility is not there.  Everyone expects this to continue indefinitely.

2.  Bullish sentiment is close to record highs. I don’t see any bears. None at all. Even the people who used to be bearish have turned bullish. Bottom line, everyone expects the bull to continue.

When you combine both factors together, you end up in a dangerous situation. Kind of like speeding while driving drunk. In more simple terms, the market is perfectly setup for a volatile down move here. As we continue to hold our long position we wait for the reversal and the confirmation that the bear market into the 2016-2017 bottom has started. 

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Stock Market Update, November 15th, 2013

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Little Known Way To Save Your Net Worth

Bloomberg Writes: Value Fund Managers Go on a Buyer’s Strike

 overpriced

Wally Weitz beat 90 percent of his rivals in the past five years by buying stocks he deemed cheap. Now he says bargains are so scarce that he’s letting his cash pile up. “It’s more fun to be finding great new ideas,” says Weitz, whose $1.1 billion Weitz Value Fund (WVALX) had 29 percent of its assets in cash and Treasury bills as of Sept. 30. “But we take what the market gives us, and right now it is not giving us anything.”

 “We are having a more difficult time finding bargains,” Yacktman wrote in an e-mail.

Romick, managing partner of First Pacific Advisors, took a similar stance in his second-quarter letter to shareholders of the $14.1 billion FPA Crescent Fund. “We find it difficult to invest in an environment that seems manipulated to engineer higher asset prices regardless of business fundamentals,” he wrote.

Read The Rest Of The Article Here

I have mentioned this a number of times before, but  we are now getting confirmations from some of the top money managers in the world.

Given current market environment, there isn’t that much to buy out there.  Most stocks and markets are overpriced. Bullish sentiment is approaching all time highs and the situation is starting to get dangerous. Why dangerous? Well, this market is artificially maintained by massive infusions of cheap credit (QE) and speculation. Basically, there is no fundamental reason for most asset classes to be where they are today.  It is all artificial. All assets are grossly mispriced to the upside and that will have to be corrected, sooner rather than later.

While I do not provide financial advice directly, I would suggest that  people might want to look at the situation from the following vantage point. The market is providing you with an excellent opportunity to start selling and building your cash reserve for the next round of the bull/bear swing.

Can the market go even higher here? Sure, but the probability of a severe bear move in the near future is very high. Well, certain as per my mathematical work. 

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