Tag: economics

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Economic Survey Proves, Most Economists Are Worthless

If the article below does not prove that the economists are no better than clowns in forecasting future events, nothing else will. I don’t know why the profession exists, but I guess someone must get paid for taking past events and forecasting them into perpetuity. If you have wondered why 99.5% of the economists, including Bernanke, Greenspan and Yellen missed the 2000, 2007 and the rest of the bubbles, wonder no more.

In the past I used to think that they really know, but for one reason or another, mislead the public into believing that everything is fine. However, after watching them in action for some time, I am really beginning to think that they believe in their interpretation of reality and their “lets print our way to prosperity” approach.   Making them not only reckless, but pretty damn stupid. 

Based on the survey, the economy is about to accelerate because the weather is getting better, the emerging markets distress is over, the stock market correction is over, the unemployment rate is collapsing, corporations are hiring by the millions and only sunshine and flowers are on the horizon. Yet, you know better dear reader.  

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Economists: U.S. will see better growth in ’14

Despite some disappointing economic news recently, economists surveyed by USA TODAY expect the recovery to accelerate this year.

The U.S. economy is headed for stronger growth in 2014 that will steadily chip away at the unemployment rate, top economists predict in a largely optimistic USA TODAY quarterly survey.

The jobless rate, which dipped to a five-year low of 6.6% in January, will fall to 6.3% by the end of the year, their median forecast indicates.

Job gains, which averaged 194,000 a month last year, will reach a monthly average of 200,000 this year, they predict. Employers added 113,000 jobs in January, well under many economists’ forecasts, the government reported last week.

The economy got off to a slow start in January as a result of financial turmoil in emerging markets, a stomach-churning drop in stock prices and extreme winter weather that kept many shoppers at home. But the economists surveyed expect growth to accelerate after a weak first quarter, reaching a solid 2.8% rate for the year.

“I think we will regain momentum and not fall on our face,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial, drawing a contrast with previous ups and downs in the five-year-old recovery.

Many of the 40 economists surveyed Feb 5-6 recently cut their first-quarter forecasts. Most of the change is due to the adverse January weather and an expected pull-back in business stockpiling after firms aggressively replenished shelves in the second half of 2013.

While growth late last year was driven largely by the stockpiling, this year’s expansion will be fueled by higher consumer and business spending, says Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist of Barclays Capital.

“It’s more durable,” he says.

Many were anticipating a breakout year in 2014, signaling a new course for a generally sluggish recovery. Households have shed much of the debt they amassed during the mid-2000s real estate bubble. A stock run-up and rising home prices have made consumers feel wealthier. And the effects of federal spending cuts and tax increases are fading, while state and local governments are poised to increase outlays after years of austerity.

Several economists say those improving fundamentals remain intact. Some see financial troubles in emerging markets such as Turkey and Brazil as risks to the USA’s outlook. Chris Varvares of Macroeconomic Advisers has trimmed his growth forecast, saying the turmoil could curtail U.S. exports and stock prices, crimping business investment and consumer spending.

But more than eight in 10 of those surveyed said January’s stock sell-off and emerging markets’ woes have not caused them to be less optimistic about growth this year. Sixty-four percent said their 2014 forecasts are more likely to prove too conservative than too rosy.

Maki says the recent stock swoon pales compared to last year’s market gains and is unlikely to hurt consumer spending this year. Rising interest rates may cause Americans to buy smaller homes, but they shouldn’t deter purchases, he says.

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Economic Survey Proves, Most Economists Are Worthless Google

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AOL Wages War Against Pregnant Women…It’s About Time

Sometimes, something magical happens. Sometimes a red blooded American stands up, cuts through all the bullshit and calls it like it is. Today was one of those days and I solute you Tim Armstrong, the CEO of AOL. Too bad you will now be crucified by the feminist Nazis and the traditional media outside of AOL. 

WOW. AOL spent $2 Million on just 2 “distressed babies”. What the hell is a “distressed baby” anyway? Here is the bottom line. The companies still have no idea what ObamaCare will cost them over the next few years and how it will change our healthcare system. Actually, no one knows. The best analyst covering the sector are basically sitting with a thumb up their ass without the slightest clue of what the system will look like over the next 5 years and what kinds of extra costs business will have to carry…..

One thing becoming painfully obvious.  It will cost a lot more than anyone anticipated. In both premiums, healthcare costs as well as jobs lost. What AOL did is just the beginning. As soon businesses find out the true costs, you will see cuts across the board. Hitting you where it hurts the most. Your pocket. You wanted change? You got it. 

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AOL CEO Blames Workers’ Costly Pregnancies, Obamacare for 401(k) Cuts

AOL CEO Tim Armstrong

Can a coworker’s pregnancy hurt your 401(k) plan? If you work at AOL (AOL), the answer appears to be yes.

CEO Tim Armstrong on Thursday blamed a change in AOL employees’ 401(k) match on new costs associated with Obamacare, as well as $2 million AOL spent for two employees’ “distressed babies,” according to Capital New York, which said it obtained a transcript of Armstrong speaking on an internal conference call.

AOL, which owns the Huffington Post and Engadget, will now pay out company matching funds in one lump sum at the end of the year, and only to employees who are “active” on Dec. 31. IBM (IBM) made a similar change to its 401(k) plan in 2012, to help cut costs. Armstrong told CNBC that the new health law will impose $7.1 million in new costs on AOL, forcing the company to decide whether to pass those expenses to employees or to “try to eat as much of that as possible and cut other benefits?”

Health care experts questioned the accuracy of the $7.1 million figure, with one noting that employee costs incurred in 2012 would be irrelevant to the company’s costs in 2014. The CEO was more specific later in a conference call with company employees regarding the expenses of providing medical benefits. According to Capital New York, Armstrong said:

Two things that happened in 2012. We had two AOL-ers that had distressed babies that were born that we paid a million dollars each to make sure those babies were OK in general. And those are the things that add up into our benefits cost. So when we had the final decision about what benefits to cut because of the increased healthcare costs, we made the decision, and I made the decision, to basically change the 401(k) plan.

AOL did not respond to an after-hours request for comment. Online, the response was swift.

In a later email memo sent to AOL employees, published by the Huffington Post, Armstrong sought to clarify his remarks. “This morning, I discussed the increases we and many other companies are seeing in healthcare costs,” he wrote. “In that context, I mentioned high-risk pregnancy as just one of many examples of how our company supports families when they are in need. We will continue supporting members of the AOL family.”

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AOL Wages War Against Pregnant Women…It’s About Time Google

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January Jobs Report Disaster And Other BS From The Department Of Labor

This should come as no surprise, but this jobs report has more holes than a Tijuana hooker. The report missed by about 72,000 jobs with 185,000 expected Vs 113,000 actual jobs created. Yet, leave it to the government geniuses to spin it the right way. It was too cold. Yes, apparently it was too fucking cold to hire anyone in January. 

But its not all bad news. The unemployment rate is now down from 6.7% in December to 6.6% in January. Plus, the participation rate surged higher 0.2% from 62.8% to 63%. Holy Fuck!!! That’s incredible, let me run out and buy some stocks now.  

On a more serious note, this is not a laughing matter. Even though the US Economy was propped by a massive infusion of credit over the last few years, it is now running on empty. I assure you that any marginal job gains will soon turn into massive layoffs as the bear market takes us into the 2017 bear market bottom (see my timing work to find out why) 

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers hired far fewer workers than expected in January and job gains for the prior month were barely revised up, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy, even as the unemployment rate hit a new five-year low of 6.6 percent.

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 113,000, the Labor Department said on Friday. But with strong job gains in construction, cold weather probably was not a major factor in January.

The second straight month of weak hiring – marked by declines in retail, utilities, government, and education and health employment – could be a problem for the Federal Reserve, which is tapering its monthly bond-purchasing stimulus program.

December payrolls were raised only 1,000 to 75,000.

The data also comes on the heels of a report on Monday showing a surprise drop in factory activity to an eight-month low in January and could rattle investors, already nervous about slowing global growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 185,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.7 percent.

But there was a silver lining in the report. The unemployment rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 6.6 percent last month, the lowest since October 2008.

The household survey from which the jobless rate is derived showed gains in employment. In addition, more people came into the labor force, an encouraging sign for the labor market.

The participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, increased to 63 percent from 62.8 percent in December, when it fell back to the more than 35-year low hit in October.

The unemployment rate is now flirting with the 6.5 percent level that Fed officials have said would trigger discussions over when to raise benchmark interest rates from near zero.

But policymakers have made it clear that rates will not rise any time soon even if the unemployment threshold is breached.

The private sector accounted for all the hiring in January. Government payrolls fell 29,000, the largest decline since October 2012.

Manufacturing employment increased 21,000, rising for a sixth month. Retail sector jobs fell 12,900 after strong increases in the prior months, the first decline since March.

Construction payrolls bounced back 48,000 after being depressed by the weather in December. It was the largest increase since December 2012.

Average hourly earnings rose five cents. The length of the workweek was steady at an average of 34.4 hours.Book Formlead Big

January Jobs Report Disaster And Other BS From The Department Of Labor  Google

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Emerging Markets Crisis… About To Throw US Into A Recession? Or Is It The Other Way Around?

The Ivory Tower brain bank idiots have done it again. Yes, let’s blame those pesky “Emerging Economies” for all of our economic troubles. The reality, of course, is the other way around. The emerging economies are the extensions of the US Economy to whatever degree they were stupid enough to dilute their own economies with the help of the FED and it’s “free” credit.

The emerging economies will suffer the same fate as the US, but to a much more devastating degree. When the US Economy catches the cold and slips back into a severe recession, due to the upcoming bear market (based on my mathematical work it has already started),  the emerging economies will, to the large extent collapse……vomiting out blood and guts associated with credit. 

Philippines is one of the “Emerging Markets”. Philippine Stock Index: Please note the technical setup. The chart is sitting right next to support indicating a possible break down. There is absolutely no support until it reaches 2,000 or 60% haircut. 

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Emerging markets: Big trouble ahead but crisis? “I think not” says economist

The pain in emerging markets is cutting into the performance of funds managed by some of the biggest names on Wall Street including BlackRock and T. Rowe Price, with some mutual funds already down 10% this year on falling stocks and currencies. As investors rush to pull more money out, how concerning is the emerging markets turmoil and how might it affect developed economies like the United States?

“Emerging markets are certainly in trouble,” says Eswar Prasad, Cornell University professor and author of “The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightned Its Grip on Global Finance.” There is “big trouble ahead, but a crisis? I think not.”

Prasad says Turkey and Argentina in particular are countries that are really susceptible to crises. Others like Brazil, India and South Africa — which are vulnerable because of large current-account deficits, budget deficits, and political instability — are going to have a rough patch. But he notes that things have really shifted over the last decade for emerging markets, which don’t have as much external debt as they used to and possess lots of cash reserves.

In terms of what impact this turmoil has on the developed world, opinions differ. Economist Nouriel Roubini is warning of a tail risk to the global economy and Goldman Sachs says “what happens in emerging markets mostly stays in emerging markets.”

Prasad says the emerging market weakness is “certainly not good for the U.S. economy.” He says with these economies slowing, “the world is again going to be looking to the coattails of the U.S. to pull it along.”

He asserts that the weaknesses in the rest of the world keeps the U.S. dollar stronger than it would otherwise be, which means fewer exports and fewer jobs here. While he acknowledges that it makes U.S. imports cheaper, he says it’s not good for growth.

Emerging Markets Crisis About To Throw US Into Recession? Or Is It The Other Way Around? Google

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How To Make A Killing In A Deflationary Inflation

InvestWithAlex Wisdom 20Today’s 5-10 Minute Podcast Covers The Following Topics:

Topic: Inflation or Deflation Over The Next 5 Years? How To Allocate Capital To Make A Killing -OR- How To Make A Killing In A Deflationary Inflation.  

    • Inflation or Deflation….what will win over the next 5 years? 
    • Why it is incredibly important for your overall portfolio. 
    • How you should position yourself now. 
    • What steps to take to make a killing over the next 5 years. 

Please tweet me your questions @investwithalex

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How French Economic Policies Are Turning France Into a Fascist State

INS Writes: ‘Jews, Out of France!’

french nazi

Chilling video shows hundreds of anti-Semites on the march in Paris, illustrating the frightening rise of anti-Semitism in France.

It is nothing short of chilling.

A video, taken on the eve of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, shows masses of French protesters marching down a Paristhoroughfare chanting openly anti-Semitic slogans and calling on Jews to get out of France.

Chants include “Jews, France is not yours!” “Jews out of France” and “The story of the gas chambers is bull***!” At one point, in a show of raw, seething hatred, the crowd simply spits out the word “Jew, Jew, Jew!” 

Many of the marchers can be seen giving the “quenelle” inverted Nazi salute popularized by anti-Semitic comedian Dieudonne. The gesture is seen as a way for anti-Semites to give a Nazi salute without incurring the wrath of authorities – although one demonstrator can be seen giving a full-on Nazi salute as well.

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I have written about France’s insane economic policies before in France Is Being Flushed Down The Toilet… Just As Predicted.  As such, it should come as no surprise that France is slowly turning into a Nazi Germany.  Maybe not to the extent, but to a degree everyone should be aware of.

If history teaches us anything, it is the economic structure and not the ideology, that leads to genocide and wars. It was the economic devastation that was the primary reason behind the rise of Nazi Germany in the early 1930’s.  Now, the French Socialist Party is hell bent of destroying French economy by taxing the rich and businesses to death. Subsequent economic suffering leads to social unrest and an eventual rise of hate and fascism. We see this very same type of a situation happening in Greece as well.  

Idiotic and uneducated masses always need someone to blame.  Based  on today’s news it looks as if the French hate the Jews. It is my only hope that all the Jews pick up and leave either for the US or Israel.  Just as their exodus devastated every corner of Russia’s economic and scientific community, France should have the privilege to suffer the same faith. Let this be a lesson to those trying to turn their market economies into socialist nanny states.

One thing is for sure, I won’t be visiting France anytime soon. Au revoir connards

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How French Economic Policies Are Turning France Into a Fascist State

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What You Ought To Know About Economic BS

AP Writes: State of the US economy: strongest since recession

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy is showing more strength than at any time since the Great Recession began six years ago.

Employers are hiring. Home prices, sales and construction have surged. Corporate profits and stocks have hit records. And consumers have picked up their spending.

The economy has yet to fully recover from the most devastating crisis since the Great Depression. But it’s getting closer — a point President Barack Obama was expected to highlight in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

The propaganda machine continues to hum along. Let me remind you that the so called “Great Recession” was caused by the insane economic policies of the US Government. Mind you, they continue the same policies today, yet on a much larger scale.

— JOBS

Job growth has been remarkably steady in an uneven recovery. Employers have added at least 2.1 million jobs in each of the past three years, creating momentum that could help the economy gain speed in 2014. Each new job puts more money in the hands of people to spend. That’s why consistent job growth can give more traction to the recovery. The unemployment rate has plunged from 7.9 percent to 6.7 percent over the past year. That’s down from a 10 percent peak in October 2009.

Still, the benefits of more hiring have been muted so far, in part because much of it has been concentrated in the low-wage industries of hotels, restaurants, retailers and temp workers. Also, millions of jobless Americans have stopped looking for work. Once people without jobs stop their searches, they’re no longer counted as unemployed. As a result, the unemployment rate can fall in a way that overstates the health of the economy.

WOW, really. I am not even sure where they are getting their numbers. While the government claims the unemployment is at 6.7%, in reality, that number is much higher. With people giving up on finding work and prolific “underemployment” the real rate is most likely to be around 15%. Hence, no pay growth.  

— HOUSING

Real estate is rebounding. Home prices have climbed 13.7 percent over the past 12 months, according to a Standard & Poor’s index released Tuesday. Sales of existing homes totaled 5.09 million last year, the best such performance since 2006, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Home industry experts say the gains should continue this year, though at a slower pace because higher mortgage rates and home prices will make buying less affordable for some.

Sure, real estate has rebounded, but make no mistake. This has very little to do with an underlying economic health and everything to do with massive credit infusion and to a certain extent speculation in the sector. Once the bubble pops again, and it will, housing will decline below 2010-11 lows.

— CONSUMER SPENDING

The spending of consumers, which fuels about 70 percent of the economy, is starting to return to its pre-recession levels. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 80.7 this month, well above last year’s average of 73.3. Retail sales bumped up 4.2 percent in 2013, the fourth straight annual increase. Roughly 15.6 million autos were bought last year, an 8 percent improvement and the highest total since 2007. Historically low inflation and interest rates have kept food and clothing affordable. And according to the Gallup Organization, average daily consumer spending rose $16 to $88 last year.

Fair enough, but consumer spending is a simple function of the economy. When the economy goes up, so does the consumer spending. Yet, keep the following in mind. Today’s economic recovery is driven primarily by credit infusion and speculation. As the result, consumer spending is being artificially levitated. When easy credit and speculation goes away, consumer spending will not only decline, but collapse.

— STOCKS

The Dow Jones industrial average enjoyed a monster 2013, climbing 28 percent. Corporate profits are at their highest share of the economy in the 66 years of tracking by the government. Shares were bolstered by a Federal Reserve bond-buying program that is now being wound down. The eventual end of the program, paired with weak growth in China and troubles in Argentina and Turkey, help explain the 4.1 percent decline in the stock market since the start of this year.

Again, everything associated with the stock market has been goosed by the FED and their “unlimited” money supply. That includes corporate profits and emerging markets. It is similar to living a high life while maxing out your credit cards. Eventually the bills will come due and the cards will be maxed out. When that happens, there will be hell to pay in all financial markets. As I have stated so many times before, my mathematical work indicates that the bear market has already started and it will take us into the 2017 bottom.

It is prudent that you get yourself ready.

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Criminal Negligence Behind The US Economy

Talking Numbers Writes: Here’s why the Fed is trapped: Ron Paul

PJ-Ron-Paul-1

Ron Paul has a warning for the markets: The Federal Reserve Bank is the source of today’s market instability and it will likely get worse.

As the Fed begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, world markets are being rattled by two major issues: credit market instability in China and a further taper of the US monetary stimulus.

Former congressman Ron Paul believes that Ben Bernanke is going to avoid responsibility for additional tapering and foist it on his successor, Janet Yellen. He believes the Fed has its back against the wall – if it tapers any more, emerging markets will spin out of control; if it continues buying bonds at the same monthly pace indefinitely (which is expected to be $75 billion this month), US and world markets could find themselves overvalued and susceptible to a big drop if and when the music stops. The US dollar’s role as a reserve currency is part of the reason this could be a global problem, according to Paul.

“We create money out of thin air to the tune of billions and billions of dollars,” says Paul. “Then we spend it in places like China and they monetize that debt. It’s a worldwide phenomenon. Everybody has mal-investments and overinvestments and all the problems built-in. The weakest economies are going to crack first. But, eventually, I think everybody’s going to suffer from the massive monetary inflation that’s been going on, not only for the last 10 years but probably 30 years.”

I have a lot of respect for Ron Paul for one simple reason. He was the only politician in the US Congress to speak the truth about our economic predicament. Well, either that or all other politicians are idiots without an ounce of economic understanding. Judging by what they are doing to the country I think it’s the latter.   

His assessment of our economic situation is right on the money.  The FED is the problem that has distorted most of our financial markets and most of our pricing mechanisms to an amazing degree. Everywhere you look, you will find discrepancies. From the stock market to the car loan market. Everywhere.

Even though most people view our current economic situation as “typical”, it is anything but that. The FED is, indeed, backed into the corner. That is what happens when you blow financial bubbles on a massive scale. They cannot take the stimulus away. If they do, most financial markets around the world will ferociously collapse. If they don’t, the markets will simply stagnate as the velocity of credit/money slows down. Making the situation worse in the long run.

Of course, most people don’t see that. Even our own president.

President Barack Obama spoke repeatedly last year about the need to avoid what he called “artificial bubbles.” He praised Yellen for “sounding the alarm early about the housing bubble” when he announced her nomination for the job of Fed chairman on Oct. 9. “She doesn’t have a crystal ball, but what she does have is a keen understanding about how markets and the economy work,” he said.

Wrong, Mr. President. We are already in a massive speculative bubble driven by a massive amount of credit and by the FED. Bigger than 1929, 2000 or 2007.  Will the markets collapse as they did back then?  My mathematical and timing work says NO, but the main issue persists. While it might not take the form of a severe market collapse, the economy will have to suffer for decades to come under the weight of today’s economic mismanagement. 

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?

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Reuters Writes: Fed’s Evans: Optimistic 2014 will be the year economy takes off

CORALVILLE, Iowa, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday said he’s optimistic that 2014 will finally be the year the economy “takes off,” adding that monetary policy must remain accommodative for it to do so.

Wait a second. The economy hasn’t “Taken Off” yet? I am confused. If you listen to the financial media “propaganda machine”, most investment advisors and money managers, even our own president, the economy is doing great. The stock market is up over 100% in the last 5 years and everyone is getting rich.

Of course, such statements are viewed as fallacy on the main street.  For most people, things haven’t improved. If anything, they have gotten a lot worse. The reason you are seeing “perceived” improvements has nothing to do with the real economic growth and everything to do with speculation and corruption.

Yes, corruption. If you want someone to blame, there is only one place you need to point your finger. At the US Government and the FED. They have pumped our economy full of hot air in the form of credit and speculation.

That is not without cost. Eventually, our economy and our capital markets will have to readjust themselves. When they do, there will be hell to pay. As my earlier posts indicate, the bear market is about to start and when it does, we shall once again see who is swimming naked.

At least for me, only one mystery remains.  Are the FED officials (as above) good liars or are they just plain stupid. Judging on what they did to the economy thus far, I am leaning towards the later.     

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FED Economists…Stupid, Liars or Stupid Liars?  

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American People Are Sick Of Economic BS

Bloomberg Writes: Americans in Poll Doubt Economy Rebound

american economic recovery investwithalex

Americans are losing faith in the nation’s economic recovery even as forecasters expect growth to accelerate, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

Fewer people anticipate improvement in the economy’s strength over the next year than in the last survey in June, with 27 percent saying the expansion will be more robust, down from 39 percent who expected improvement three months earlier.

Forty-four percent of poll respondents say they expect the economy, which has expanded for nine consecutive quarters, to remain about the same, while 28 percent see it weakening.

 “We’re still in a recession; I don’t know why they say it’s over,” says Chris Sams, 28, a disabled Navy veteran from Daingerfield, Texas. “It may be over in Washington, D.C., where the per capita income is higher than anywhere else, but down here the minimum wage is the highest wage.”

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President Obama and Mr. Bernanke, I have news for you. American people are no longer buying your bullshit. 

You can attempt to twist economic recovery numbers anyway you wish, but since the reality for most Americans is so much different from your reported number….. it will not work.  Only the richest 5% of Americans benefited from your one sided actions. Only those who had the direct access to your cheap capital reaped the rewards. The rest of Americans see their economic situation erode. The pole above clearly indicates that.

Now, a contrarian in me might even argue that this kind of a view from the majority of the population is great news for both the stock market and the economy. However, such an opinion would only be valid if we were at the bear market bottom……not sitting at an all time high.  I believe this is the case of American people finally waking up and saying “Wait a second, even though there are all these great economic news, my situation is not improving, as a matter of fact, it is declining”.

As such realization sets in across the nation and confidence erodes further, financial markets should feel the impact. 

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