Tag: bears

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Bears Are Dead Wrong & Stupid. It’s Different This Time.

stupid bearsAt least according to a lot of market strategists, including this one  Stock market bears are making a big mistake

Shiller’s data, going back to 1880, show that the historic average CAPE for the U.S. stock market has been about 16. When the market has been significantly above that, subsequent returns have typically proven to be poor — and vice versa. Today it is at 25. 

I have argued this before, but here is what most people don’t understand about today’s earnings. They are abnormal…a figment of one’s imagination. Same as they were in 2007 when the S&P earnings went from a seeming normal P/E of 18 at 2007 top to 128 during the collapse in 2008.

s&p ratio

Back then earnings simply vanished into thin air, just as they will today. Why? Because most of the corporate earnings everyone relies on today are based on a massive amount of credit within our financial system. That massive QE and low interest rate stimulus that the FED unleashed on the US economy. When it goes away (just as it did in 2007-2009) you will see corporate earnings collapse….making today’s valuation not only expensive, but insanely expensive. One thing is for sure….it’s never different. 

Z30

Bears Are Dead Wrong & Stupid. It’s Different This Time. Google

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Investor Intelligence Reports: All Bears Are Dead. Massive Bear Market About To Start?

percent bears investwithalex

Most of the bears in the stock market have been dealt with. Over the last few years they have been taken behind the dumpster and shot. As the Investor Intelligence chart shows (see chart inside)the % of bears today stands at 15%. The lowest it has been since the survey started. That’s right, even lower than 2000 and 2007 tops. Does that mean the bear market is about to start?

The bear market has already started. As my mathematical and timing work indicated, the Dow topped out on December 31st, 2013, ushering in the bear market that will last between 2014-2017. Click on the Bear Market Report to see a comprehensive report on why, how & when. If you would like to learn more about the exact dates, prices and turning points within the composition of this upcoming bear market please check us out HERE 

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Investor Intelligence Reports: All Bears Are Dead. Massive Bear Market About To Start? Google

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Why Do You Hate Me?

bear market investwithalex

It’s hard to be a bear. No one likes bears.  Here are the top 10 signs that you might be a bear hater as well. 

  1. You define a bear who got it wrong simply as “An idiot”.
  2. You define a bear who got it right as “An idiot who got lucky.”
  3. Short squeezes give you a hard on.
  4. When you go to Russia you always order a Grilled Bear Steak.
  5. You can’t stop laughing when Mr. Market mauls all the bears.
  6. You secretly wish that Mr. Bernanke would round up all the bears and ship them to where they belong….. Siberia.
  7. You think that throwing bears out of airplanes should be an Olympic sport. 
  8. When up in the mountains you steal “Slow Down For Bears” signs and replace them with “No Speed Limit” signs. 
  9. You believe all bears are communists. 
  10. You believe bear mafia controls the toilet paper market.

This goes to all the bears out there. 

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Why Do You Hate Me? 

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Bears In Lamborghinis

bear in lamborghiniI remember 2006 very well. I was going around telling people the following,  “Listen guys, this is unsustainable, this market is in a crazy bubble driven primarily by mortgage finance and it will blow up soon”.   Most didn’t care and those who did called me “Boy who cried wolf”.

Fair enough. I decided to take matters into my own hands by shorting subprime mortgage lenders and multiple other real estate related companies that I believed are nothing more than a pile of stinky (but worthless) mortgage paper. Yet, the companies kept going up throughout 2006 and early 2007. Not only going up, they kept surging up like they were the best investments in the world. This was before my timing work and I was feeling miserable. My research was 100% accurate, yet the market was going the other way.  When these stocks did finally collapse in the summer of 2008, they have collapsed within weeks. With one stock price going from as high as $87 to as low as ZERO (filed for bankruptcy) in 11 trading days. I was vindicated, but it didn’t matter.

What’s the point of this story?

Even though I am currently a huge bear based on fundamental, macro and timing analysis, I do not currently hold a short position.  Quite the opposite. I am long the market, but solely based on my timing work.  My mathematical work clearly illustrates that a severe (3 year) bear market is starting in 2014 to complete in 2017. Before that happens, I feel the pain the bears are going through. Of course, they are right but they are suffering through the most difficult stage of all…. market blow off top.  This is the time where there are almost no bears left. Most of them have been killed.  Case and point.

S&P 500 Will Be at 2,000 Sooner Than You Think article that not only makes fun of the bears, but claims that everyone is bearish and that’s why S&P will hit 2000 soon. Well, maybe everyone is bearish if you can find any bears left. I don’t know of any. Even permabears have turned bullish.  

 

Perhaps he is talking about Carl Icahn who has turned bearish CARL ICAHN: The Stock Market Could See A ‘Big Drop’ And I’m ‘Very Cautious’

To moral of the story is this. With the market surging ever higher, this is the most difficult time to be a bear.  Every bear looks like a complete idiot and loser. Yet, as the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.  True bears who maintain their position at this time will soon be greatly rewarded.  So much so that every true bear will be able to afford a Lamborghini.   

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!  

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Carl Icahn Agrees, Every True Bear Will Get A Lamborghini

bear in lamborghiniI remember 2006 very well. I was going around telling people the following,  “Listen guys, this is unsustainable, this market is in a crazy bubble driven primarily by mortgage finance and it will blow up soon”.   Most didn’t care and those who did called me “Boy who cried wolf”.

Fair enough. I decided to take matters into my own hands by shorting subprime mortgage lenders and multiple other real estate related companies that I believed are nothing more than a pile of stinky (but worthless) mortgage paper. Yet, the companies kept going up throughout 2006 and early 2007. Not only going up, they kept surging up like they were the best investments in the world. This was before my timing work and I was feeling miserable. My research was 100% accurate, yet the market was going the other way.  When these stocks did finally collapse in the summer of 2008, they have collapsed within weeks. With one stock price going from as high as $87 to as low as ZERO (filed for bankruptcy) in 11 trading days. I was vindicated, but it didn’t matter.

What’s the point of this story?

Even though I am currently a huge bear based on fundamental, macro and timing analysis, I do not currently hold a short position.  Quite the opposite. I am long the market, but solely based on my timing work.  My mathematical work clearly illustrates that a severe (3 year) bear market is starting in 2014 to complete in 2017. Before that happens, I feel the pain the bears are going through. Of course, they are right but they are suffering through the most difficult stage of all…. market blow off top.  This is the time where there are almost no bears left. Most of them have been killed.  Case and point.

S&P 500 Will Be at 2,000 Sooner Than You Think article that not only makes fun of the bears, but claims that everyone is bearish and that’s why S&P will hit 2000 soon. Well, maybe everyone is bearish if you can find any bears left. I don’t know of any. Even permabears have turned bullish.  

 

Perhaps he is talking about Carl Icahn who has turned bearish CARL ICAHN: The Stock Market Could See A ‘Big Drop’ And I’m ‘Very Cautious’

To moral of the story is this. With the market surging ever higher, this is the most difficult time to be a bear.  Every bear looks like a complete idiot and loser. Yet, as the saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.  True bears who maintain their position at this time will soon be greatly rewarded.  So much so that every true bear will be able to afford a Lamborghini.   

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!