Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – March 10th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains below 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.23. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.36.
  • Weekly RSI at 77.30. At severely overbought levels. Daily RSI is at 67.13- more or less neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,250 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics at 92.62. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 49.8 - neutral.
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest is slightly lower, but still near record levels. Now at 110K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 4.5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 1X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on both daily and weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


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