It’s official. My home base, San Diego, has done it. San Diego the nation’s second least affordable city for buying a home behind San Francisco.
“The report says a person in San Diego would need to earn $98,534 a year to buy a $483,000 home, the county’s median price in the first quarter.”
Well, I have good news and I have bad news. The good news? As advertised, San Diego is a beautiful city, the weather is nice and it’s a nice place to live. The bad news? Real estate prices will decline to the tune of 50% over the next 10 years.
Let me be crystal clear. Anyone…..anyone buying a house at today’s prices will lose a ton of money. Don’t worry, I know that most people (particularly in San Diego) will disagree with me. Yet, most of these people have no idea of where we are in the composition of the overall economic cycle, its application to real estate, real estate valuation work and so on.
Very briefly, what we saw in the real estate market between 2006-2010 was just the initial decline in the secular Real Estate Bear Market(stage 1). What we have witnessed since, 2010-today (stage 2) is a “Dead Cat Bounce”. What’s next?
Stage 3….a massive decline followed by another bounce and then by a final leg down. Now, these things don’t happen overnight. They take years to play out. My timing work shows the bottom in San Diego real estate prices arriving around 2022-2024…. at the earliest.
Again with 50% or more price haircut expected, it would be VERY wise not to touch real estate in San Diego with a ten foot pole. If you need more information you can read my comprehensive report here Real Estate Collapse 2.0 Why, How & When
This is the funniest thing I have ever read…where has this guy been for the last 50 years OMG
Del, I am very happy when I make people laugh. I remember all sorts of people laughing at me in 2006-2007 when I warned them that the stock market will blow sky high. Then they thought I finally lost it when I told them to buy everything they could in March of 2009. 50 Years? A also doubt that anyone was laughing in San Diego between 1991-1994 or in the 1970s. Just saying. Thanks for your comment.
Don’t listen to guys like Del. They are just a bunch of losers that were bailed out by quantitative easing, they are too dumb to comprehend they would have been poor without a bailout. I like your work and check your website on a regular basis, I can tell intuitively you know what your talking about.
Thank you Internetdood, Cheers