Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – Feb. 6th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow continues to trade above 20K.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio remains around 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71. Approaching severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 60 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 97.58. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 72 - neutral.
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. Now at 9X net long.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 4.5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – Feb. 3rd, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow ended the week above 20K - flat for the week.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio jremains at 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72 - severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 61.32 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 96. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 60 - neutral.
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. Now at 9X net long.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 4.5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

Elliott Wave Update:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P is in process of completing intermediary wave 3. As soon as it does, the market should correct in an intermediary wave 4. Then push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, this count should terminate the bull market.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought. It appears that Elliott Wave analysis is suggesting the same.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – Feb. 2nd, 2017 – EW

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5)wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P is in process of completing intermediary wave 3. As soon as it does, the market should correct in an intermediary wave 4. Then push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, this count should terminate the bull market.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – Feb. 1st, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains below 20K.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio remains around 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 66.71. Approaching severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 53 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 93.52. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 52 - neutral.
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. At 6X net long.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

Did the sell-off start today? 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 31st, 2017 -EW

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5)wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P is in process of completing intermediary wave 3. As soon as it does, the market should correct in an intermediary wave 4. Then push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, this count should terminate the bull market.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 30th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow ended the day below 20K.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio remains around 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 68.81. Approaching severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 57 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 94.52. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 84.68 - once again at overbought levels
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. At 6X net long.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

Did the sell-off start today? 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 27th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow traded flat as it remains above 20K.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio jumped to 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.3 Severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 67 - approaching overbought levels again.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 95.1. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 94.68 - once again at overbought levels
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. At 6X net long.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 26th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow has pushed slightly higher as it remains above 20K.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio jumped to 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.3 Severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 67 - approaching overbought levels again.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 95.1. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 88 - once again approaching overbought levels
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – January 25th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow has finally broke above its recent trading range and above historic 20,000 level.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio jumped to 28.5. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72. Severely overbought. Daily RSI is at 65.80 - approaching overbought levels again.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 95.29. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 69 - once again approaching overbought levels
  • VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market is back to being overbought.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update – January 24th, 2017


State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow has been stuck in a 300 point trading range (19,999-19,700) since about December 12th of 2016. Either distributing at the top or consolidating.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is at 28.25. Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 69.14 Remains at overbough levels. Daily RSI is at 59.24 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,000 today (on weekly).
  • Short-term MACD is beginning to roll over - weekly.
  • Weekly stochastics remain at 93 and slowly declining. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 52.43 - no longer oversold - neutral.
  • Last weeks CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  For instance, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 4X short. That is a significant short position against the market.
  • Demand for VIX has spiked. Two weeks ago investors have purchased 250,000 VIX call options with a strike price at 21, and another 100,000 with the strike at 22. Commercial VIX position is at 5X long.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off. Short-term, the market has resolved its severely overbought conditions. Suggesting that either a bounce or another push higher might be in the cards. A complex setup.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.