Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – July 10th, 2017


State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.68.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71.89 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 55.43 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 86.13 - overbought. Daily at 50.29-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -12. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 70K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – July 8th, 2017


State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.68.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71.12 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 55.76 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 86.42 - overbought. Daily at 56.64-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -12. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest remains the same. Now at 70K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 3X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – July 5th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.66.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 73.08 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 60.78 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 88.25 - overbought. Daily at 50-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at 0. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest has declined. Now at 70K contracts net long Vs 90K contracts last week. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 6X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – July 3rd, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.66.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 73.08 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 60.78 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 88.25 - overbought. Daily at 50-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at 0. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest has declined. Now at 70K contracts net long Vs 90K contracts last week. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 6X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 30th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.66.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71.12 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 63.54 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 90.3 - overbought. Daily at 68.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -10. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest has declined. Now at 70K contracts net long Vs 90K contracts last week. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has decreased slightly during the week. For now, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 2X and the Nasdaq is at 6X short. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Is Janet Yellen An Evil/Mad Genius Or A Giant Ponzi Scheme Operator???

Let's explore.....

Earlier in the week Janet Yellen proceeded to suggest something incredible

“Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.” 

The above leads me to an abrupt conclusion. Janet Yellen is either a complete idiot who is way out of touch with reality or she is actually a mad genius trying to fool the entire planet.

The statement above would be more appropriate if we were sitting at a bottom of a valuation range or in the final stages of a crisis. For example, 1914 or 1949 or 1982. At that time stocks were selling at P/E ratios of 6-8 and even lower.

Quite the opposite is true today. We are sitting at all time high valuation levels. In last week's update I have argued.....

Downright Crazy Valuations: 

When we look at today's valuations the picture is even scarier. Earlier in the week Shiller's P/E Ratio on the S&P has pushed above 30 (median 15-16) for the first time ever. Especially if we adjust for the lack of earnings in the index during the tech bubble. 

Allow me to rephrase that. The stock market today is selling at the highest valuation level in human history. Higher than 1929, 1937, 1966, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007.

Most importantly, most of the stock market's gains since 2009 bottom came from multiple expansion, not economic/earnings growth. And that was mostly due to the FED pumping trillions of dollars into the economy in the form of zero interest rates and QE.

Everyone knows this.

Let me put it this way. While Janet Yellen claims that we operate in a much more stable system and that we will never see another Financial Crisis in our lifetime, the exact opposite is true.

The picture at the top of this article is rather accurate. Janet Yellen has created a massive bomb that is ready to go off at any point now. When it does, it will make the financial crisis of 2007-2009 look like child's play in comparison. And if history is any guide, the FED won't be able to do a single thing to stop it - they are nearly out of ammo.

So, unless Janet Yellen is getting ready to die from printing too much by the end of the year, her statement is an outright lie. In that case you decide if she is an outright delusional liar or much smarter than your average market bear.

Here is a much more detailed technical view on the subject matter. Strangely enough, they come to the same conclusion.

Yes, Ms. Yellen…There Will Be Another Financial Crisis

Ms. Yellen is wrong about the next financial crisis. The only question is the timing and magnitude of its occurrence?

Make no mistake, an absolute bloodbath in equity markets is steaming our way. The only remaining question is...... WHEN? If you would like to find out exactly when the sell-off will start, based on our mathematical and timing work, please CLICK HERE

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 29th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 28th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.87.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 73.68 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 62.85 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,700 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 93.3 - overbought. Daily at 64.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +14. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was identical to last week. Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased significantly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 17X short (vs just 4X short last week). That is a massive short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 27th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – June 26th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.87.  Arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and now above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.84 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 63.54 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,650 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 94.5 - overbought. Daily at 68.11-neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -2. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX are once again sitting at or near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was identical to last week. Now at 90K contracts net long. We should see volatility long interest higher over the next few weeks. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short. Short interest has increased significantly during the week. For now, the Dow is 5X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 17X short (vs just 4X short last week). That is a massive short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.