Intraday & Trading

March 28th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our daily update. We are waiting to see if the market is ready to accelerate down now or if we have another week to wait. Ideally, the market bounces here and into Friday. I will explain why in our daily update. If, however, acceleration down begins now I will trigger my 10% put option position as soon as the Dow breaks below 20,400.

As soon as the market takes this level out, I will initiate a  10% put option position. I will be buying January 2019 Puts with a strike at around $100 (+/- $5) - to minimize risk. This position would bring my overall portfolio to net 110% short.

In all likelihood, the Dow will likely bounce further to close yesterday's gap down at 20,600. Then it will decide if it wants to accelerate down now or bounce further into Friday. Today should provide an answer.

Stay tuned. For now we wait.

March 27th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 130+ points lower.

We are dealing with a complex opening. In terms of considering our Put Option entry point outlined in our weekly update - if the Dow breaks below 20,500. It is obvious that we will open well below this point.

Today's opening gives even more weight to the fact that the market might have already fallen out of our elliptical structure. If so, massive acceleration down is possible at any point. We might be witnessing that today.

BUT, today's gap down on all indices and volatility is too big not to be closed. Possibly as soon as today or over the next few days. Further, the market hasn't yet set any short-term trading patterns to the downside.

I don't typically like to take option positions under such circumstance. Especially at today's opening as bids/asks will be out of sync. Here is what I propose.

It is highly probable that the market will bounce today/tomorrow. To close today's gap lower. As a result, a better entry point for Puts should present itself later. In not, I am moving my entry point to the Dow 20,300 today. As soon as the market takes this level out, I will initiate a  10% put option position. I will be buying January 2019 Puts with a strike at around $100 (+/- $5) - to minimize risk. This position would bring my overall portfolio to net 110% short. Stay tuned. For now we wait.

March 24th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 40+ points higher.

In that sense today's opening is optimal. It suggests the market will push lower in the very near future - to close the gap.

Otherwise, yesterday's Intraday update remains in full force as we await  healthcare vote.

Today is all about "Trump Care". If it passes, the market will bounce. Most likely significantly. If it fails, the sell-off is likely to continue/accelerate. Our plan is simple - as per our daily update. If we do get a bounce, there is nothing to do. We simply wait it out. If the sell-off accelerates, I will take a 10% equity put option position on QQQ as soon as the Dow breaks below 20,500.

I will be buying January 2019 Puts with a strike at around $100 (+/- $5) - to minimize risk. This position would bring my overall portfolio to net 110% short. Stay tuned. For now we wait.

March 23rd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

Today is all about "Trump Care". If it passes, the market will bounce. Most likely significantly. If it fails, the sell-off is likely to continue/accelerate. Our plan is simple - as per our daily update. If we do get a bounce, there is nothing to do. We simply wait it out. If the sell-off accelerates, I will take a 10% equity put option position on QQQ as soon as the Dow breaks below 20,500.

I will be buying January 2019 Puts with a strike at around $100 (+/- $5) - to minimize risk. This position would bring my overall portfolio to net 110% short. Stay tuned. For now we wait.

March 22nd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly lower. 30+ points.

No changes to our daily update. Short-term, the market is likely to close today's gap down prior to turning lower again. Regardless, if the Dow is breaks below 20,500 I will take a 10% put option position.

I will trigger a 10% (of overall portfolio) put option position on QQQ (better liquidity) as soon as the Dow breaks below 20,500. This will be a core longer-term position. If the market stages a short-term bounce thereafter, I am likely to add to the position at higher prices.

I will be buying January 2019 Puts with a strike at around $100 (+/- $5) - to minimize risk. This position would bring my overall portfolio to net 110% short. Stay tuned.

March 21st, 2017: 11:10 AM EST

A few minutes ago the Dow took out an important support off of November bottom. I guess we can call it our confirmation point #1. No matter how insignificant. In terms of Put Options, I will not be taking a position today. It appears we accelerating down, but I would like to re-calculate at days end, then make a decision. Stay tuned.

PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our prior update. We are now waiting for a confirmation. While the market can still push higher to test the highs, it should accelerate down as soon as it falls out of the elliptical structure below. That can happen at anytime between now and over the next two weeks. As outlined in our weekly update. I believe a break below 20,700 would confirm trend reversal. Instead of volatility I am likely to initiate a call option position. More about it in our daily update. For now we wait. Stay tuned. 

March 20th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our weekly update. We are now waiting for a confirmation. While the market can still push higher to test the highs, it should accelerate down as soon as it falls out of the elliptical structure below. That can happen at anytime between now and over the next two weeks. As outlined in our weekly update. I believe a break below 20,700 would confirm trend reversal. Instead of volatility I am likely to initiate a call option position. More about it in our daily update. For now we wait. Stay tuned. 

 

March 17th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher....30+ points.

No changes to our overall view. The stock market should be falling out of our elliptical structure at any point between now and early next week. Structurally, the market is set as well. Should a breakdown begin today, we will be watching 20,700 very carefully. If the Dow pushes below that level, it would act as a first confirmation point that the sell-off has started. For now, we wait. Stay tuned.

March 16th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50+ points higher.

Today's open will allow most indices to close their respective gap downs from March 3rd. Satisfying our prior analysis. As a result, it is highly probable that the market will reverse down today. We will now have 2 short-term gap ups that the market will have to contend with (including yesterday's). Once again, I believe this projects future direction - to the downside.

Longer-term, the top should be in and the market should be falling out of our elliptical structure over the next 2-4 trading days.

When that happens, acceleration down should begin. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

March 15th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher.

We are unlikely to see anything of significance until today's interest rate decision. The market is pricing in a nearly 100% probability of an increase. The devil is in the detail. The outcome will depend on how "hawkish" or "dovish" Janet Yellen sounds. Again, the market expects a more "hawkish" stance going forwards.

How the market reacts is anyone's guess. In terms of our work, we still have a number of unfilled down gaps at around 21,000 on the Dow. That suggests the market might spike higher to close them. At the same time, we are now at the edge of our elliptical structure and a breakdown can start at any moment now. We just have to see how the market reacts today, then come to a conclusion. Stay tuned.

March 14th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 40+ points lower.

No changes to our overall forecast. Short-term, the market is likely to close today's gap down before deciding on direction. Longer-term, the top is likely in. As of March 1st. We are now waiting for the market to fall out of our elliptical structure. That should happen by the end of this week - Friday (+/- 2 trading days). It is at that juncture that the market should accelerate lower. Until that happens, the Dow can/should spike higher up to 21,000 to close the previous gap down.  That can be due to the Fed decision tomorrow. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

March 13th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher.

No changes to our weekly update. We are now waiting for the market to fall out of our elliptical structure and to confirm the top. That should happen on or around March 20th. Until then, the market is likely to remain within a trading range. The Dow still has an un-filled down gap at 21,000 and we might see a push there over the next few days. At the same time, the market is now free to collapse at any time. Stay tuned.

March 10th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a substantial gap up. 80+ points.

I believe this is the bounce we have been anticipating. Further, this is an optimal opening considering our overall forecast. Longer-term, no changes. We have likely seen the top last week. Short-term, the Dow is likely to close its gap down located at around 21,000 before reversing down. Today's gap up confirms future direction - to the downside. Once we fall out of the elliptical structure, on or around March 20th, acceleration down should begin. Stay tuned.

March 9th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

We are waiting to see if the market is able to stage one more bounce here. To possibly challenge last week's top or to settle for a slightly lower high.  At the very least the Dow should close its Monday's gap down located at 21,000. If the market fails to push higher over the next two trading days, it would confirm that the top is in.  Stay tuned.

March 8th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher.

We are waiting to see if the market is able to stage one more bounce here. To possibly challenge last week's top or settle for a slightly lower high. We did hit short-term support yesterday and that might act as a catalyst. At the very least the Dow should close its Monday's gap down located at 21,000. If the market fails to push higher over the next two trading days, it would nearly confirm that the top is in. We are now waiting for a confirmation. Stay tuned.

March 7th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our daily update. We are waiting to see if the top is in as of last Wednesday -OR- if the market will make one more push higher. To slightly higher/lower top. However, for the market to push higher, any bounce must start as soon as possible. Since we are now operating well within the confines of our March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point, any bounce must start today or tomorrow at the latest. The longer we trade down or flat here, the higher the probability becomes that we have seen the actual top last Wednesday. For now, we wait. Stay tuned.

March 6th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 30+ points lower.

No changes to our weekly update. We are waiting to see if the top is in, as of last Wednesday -OR- if the market makes another attempt at a slightly higher/lower top. Since we are now operating within the confines of our March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point the market would have to accomplish the above over the next three trading days. If the sell-off continues, the top is likely behind us. Short-term, the market will likely close today's gap down before resuming structural downside. Today's environment is best summarized by the following chart. Stay tuned. 

March 3rd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our daily update. We are now waiting to see if we have seen the top on Wednesday or not. If the market continues to sell-off over the next few days, that would become highly probable. At the same time, the probability of the market at the very least testing Wednesday high is there. Again, most of our March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME cycles arrive over the weekend and into Tuesday. In that sense, we might see a double top formation at that juncture. We should know over the next few days. Stay tuned.

March 2nd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher.

No changes to our daily update. Again, it is quite possible that we saw the top yesterday. The market might test the highs again over the next few days, even push a little bit higher. There is an alternative scenario that says the Dow might push another 200 or so points higher, but that remains questionable at this point. We are now operating within the confines of our March 4th(+/- 2 days) TIME turning point. As a result, the top can occur at any time now (if its not already in). Once the top is in, the market should begin its massive bear leg. Stay tuned.

March 1st, 2017: 10:45 AM EST: 

The Dow did not break out. It jumped to the next Price level, but we are still within norm. The market is still looking for a top. Much more about it in our daily update.

PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a massive 150+ point gap higher. Right into out target price/time area. From the gap perspective itself, the rally will fail in the very near future. In other words, everything is in place for us to see the top today. Stay tuned as the market develops.

February 28th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our weekly update at this point. I believe we only have one short-term scenario to work with now. That is, the Dow should put in an important top on our March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point. Possibly as soon as Wednesday. The top should occur somewhere at the Dow 20,925 (+/- 50 points). When the top is in, the market should reverse in order to start a substantial leg down. Until that happens, we wait. Stay tuned.

February 27th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our weekly update at this point. I believe we only have one short-term scenario to work with now. That is, the Dow should put in an important top on our March 4th (+/- 25 trading days) TIME turning point. Possibly as soon as Wednesday. The top should occur somewhere at the Dow 20,925 (+/- 50 points). When the top is in, the market should reverse in order to start a substantial leg down. Until that happens, we wait. Stay tuned.

February 24th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a substantial gap down of 75+ points.

Let's see how we trade today. In all likelihood, this gap down will be closed over the next few trading days (if not today). Again, the Dow hasn't reached its rally termination point of 20,925 (+/- 50 points). Plus, the TIMING is not right. As was proposed in our daily update, we are likely to see the final top next week or our March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point. For now we wait.

February 23rd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 30 points higher.

It is now becoming evident that March 4th (+/- 2 trading days) TIME turning point will mark the final top of this bull market. I was running calculations yesterday and I have to re-adjust my final price target to 20,925 (+/- 50 points). Mostly due to TIME compression. In other words, we are nearly at the final target. Once achieved, most likely at some point next week, that should be it. Until that happens, we wait. Stay tuned.

February 22nd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

We are now sitting right at our projected bull market termination point of 20,750 (+/- 50 points). Unfortunately, the closest TIME turning point of significance does not arrive until March 4th.

What does that mean?

As was outlined in our daily update, we either remain at elevated levels here, distributing, until March 4th arrives -OR- the market will correct into March 4th from today's levels. We should know which scenario will play out by the end of this week. A slightly higher high is possible as well. Once the top is in, we will have a significant correction. Stay tuned as the market develops.

February 21st, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50+ points higher.

As of today's opening we will be nearly at the margin of error associated with our 20,750 (+/- 50 points) final bull market target. Should the Dow reach 20,700 I believe it would be a great spot to add to our short exposure.

Now, this week is all about determining which TIME turning point (March or April) will mark the final top. If the market pushes higher throughout the week, we will see the top on March 4th (+/- 2 trading days). However, if the market declines into March 4th, we are likely to see the final top in April. Either way, we should know by the end of the week. Stay tuned as the market develops.

February 17th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50 points lower.

I don't believe the Dow has reached its final top. With that in mind, we might be witnessing the early stages of a correction that we have been talking about here over the last few days. To relieve overbought conditions and to align both Price and Time.  For our TIME turning points arriving on March 1st or in April.

At this juncture it is too early to say which short-term scenario is playing out as the market approaches its final bull market target. Let's see how the market trades today first. Much more in our weekly analysis.

However, if the Dow decides to push higher into the final target over the next few trading days, it is likely it will back down as soon as the target is hit. Only to test it again by either March 1st or by our TIME turning point arriving in April.

There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. I would be adding to my short position as soon as the Dow hits 20,700. Stay tuned.

February 16th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly lower.

In terms of Price we are now within the margin of error of our proposed top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). Unfortunately, there are no TIME turning points to support a turn. The first one of any significance arrives on March 1st (+/- 2 days).

Now, that suggests the market will correct over the next few days, prior to pushing into the final high. Most likely by March 1st. Considering how overbought the stock market is, this scenario makes sense.  In addition to the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive.

If the Dow decides to push higher into the final target over the next few trading days, it is likely it will back down as soon as the target is hit. Only to test it again by either March 1st or by our TIME turning point arriving in April.

There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. I would be adding to my short position as soon as the Dow hits 20,700. Stay tuned.

February 15th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our forecast.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 14th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our forecast.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 13th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a 50+ point gap up.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 10th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 25+ points higher.

I believe the Dow has confirmed that it will grind higher into its final bull market high located at around 20,700. Most likely by March 1st. That is our longer-term view.

Short-term, all indices have left a number of substantial gap ups. Most prominent on the S&P/Dow from last Friday. It is highly probable that we will see some sort of a reversal today in order to close those gaps.As low as 19,900 on the Dow.  I am simply maintaining my short position at this juncture and observing the market.

February 9th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher. Most likely to close yesterday's gap down at the open. Around 20,100. As soon as that happens, there is a very good probability that the Dow will fail in order to close last Friday's gap higher.

Longer-term, until the Dow either breaks out above 20,200 or breaks down below 19,550, we remain in the waiting pattern. If the Dow does breakdown, the top is in. If we push above 20,200, the Dow will go 1-3% higher to terminate its bull market. Most likely a the next powerful TIME turning point of March 1st.  For now we wait. Stay tuned.