Intraday & Trading

February 22nd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

We are now sitting right at our projected bull market termination point of 20,750 (+/- 50 points). Unfortunately, the closest TIME turning point of significance does not arrive until March 4th.

What does that mean?

As was outlined in our daily update, we either remain at elevated levels here, distributing, until March 4th arrives -OR- the market will correct into March 4th from today's levels. We should know which scenario will play out by the end of this week. A slightly higher high is possible as well. Once the top is in, we will have a significant correction. Stay tuned as the market develops.

February 21st, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50+ points higher.

As of today's opening we will be nearly at the margin of error associated with our 20,750 (+/- 50 points) final bull market target. Should the Dow reach 20,700 I believe it would be a great spot to add to our short exposure.

Now, this week is all about determining which TIME turning point (March or April) will mark the final top. If the market pushes higher throughout the week, we will see the top on March 4th (+/- 2 trading days). However, if the market declines into March 4th, we are likely to see the final top in April. Either way, we should know by the end of the week. Stay tuned as the market develops.

February 17th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50 points lower.

I don't believe the Dow has reached its final top. With that in mind, we might be witnessing the early stages of a correction that we have been talking about here over the last few days. To relieve overbought conditions and to align both Price and Time.  For our TIME turning points arriving on March 1st or in April.

At this juncture it is too early to say which short-term scenario is playing out as the market approaches its final bull market target. Let's see how the market trades today first. Much more in our weekly analysis.

However, if the Dow decides to push higher into the final target over the next few trading days, it is likely it will back down as soon as the target is hit. Only to test it again by either March 1st or by our TIME turning point arriving in April.

There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. I would be adding to my short position as soon as the Dow hits 20,700. Stay tuned.

February 16th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly lower.

In terms of Price we are now within the margin of error of our proposed top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). Unfortunately, there are no TIME turning points to support a turn. The first one of any significance arrives on March 1st (+/- 2 days).

Now, that suggests the market will correct over the next few days, prior to pushing into the final high. Most likely by March 1st. Considering how overbought the stock market is, this scenario makes sense.  In addition to the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive.

If the Dow decides to push higher into the final target over the next few trading days, it is likely it will back down as soon as the target is hit. Only to test it again by either March 1st or by our TIME turning point arriving in April.

There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. I would be adding to my short position as soon as the Dow hits 20,700. Stay tuned.

February 15th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our forecast.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 14th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat.

No changes to our forecast.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 13th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a 50+ point gap up.

Longer-term, the Dow is now pushing into its final bull market top located at 20,750 (+/- 50 points). The top should occur either on March 1st or in April. The exact TIME frame will be based on what transpires over the next two weeks or as per our two short-term scenarios discussed in the weekly update.

Short-term, the stock market is extremely overbought. Plus, considering the amount of up gaps over the last few days, it is highly probable that we will see a pull back here. As soon as today. The extent of the pull back will determine our longer-term picture or exactly WHEN the actual top will arrive. There is nothing for us to do now as we wait for the market to complete its bullish pattern. Stay tuned.

February 10th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 25+ points higher.

I believe the Dow has confirmed that it will grind higher into its final bull market high located at around 20,700. Most likely by March 1st. That is our longer-term view.

Short-term, all indices have left a number of substantial gap ups. Most prominent on the S&P/Dow from last Friday. It is highly probable that we will see some sort of a reversal today in order to close those gaps.As low as 19,900 on the Dow.  I am simply maintaining my short position at this juncture and observing the market.

February 9th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher. Most likely to close yesterday's gap down at the open. Around 20,100. As soon as that happens, there is a very good probability that the Dow will fail in order to close last Friday's gap higher.

Longer-term, until the Dow either breaks out above 20,200 or breaks down below 19,550, we remain in the waiting pattern. If the Dow does breakdown, the top is in. If we push above 20,200, the Dow will go 1-3% higher to terminate its bull market. Most likely a the next powerful TIME turning point of March 1st.  For now we wait. Stay tuned.

February 8th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat to slightly down.

Considering the gaps we saw yesterday and last Friday, it is highly probable that the market will now sell-off to close them. That makes sense in terms of yesterday's resistance test.

Longer-term, until the Dow either breaks out above 20,200 or breaks down below 19,550, we remain in the waiting pattern. If the Dow does breakdown, the top is in. If we push above 20,200, the Dow will go 1-3% higher to terminate its bull market. Most likely a the next powerful TIME turning point of March 1st.  For now we wait. Stay tuned.

February 7th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 50+ points higher.

I believe today's gap higher, in addition to the gap on Friday, is yet another confirmation point that the market is about to turn lower. At least on the short-term basis. It is highly probable that this failure will begin today.

With that in mind, our longer-term picture remains entirely the same.  We are still waiting for some sort of a market confirmation. If the Dow manages to break above 20,200 over the next few days, it is nearly certain that we are likely to see a new top by March 1st (2-3% higher). Our next TIME turning point. However, if the Dow is able to head lower and then break support, today at 19,500, it will signal that the top is in. For now we wait and observe the market. Waiting for a confirmation. Stay tuned.

February 6th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open about 25 points lower.

In all likelihood the Dow will close this gap lower at the open prior to resuming downside. Assuming it resumes downside immediately. It can be argued that last Monday's gap lower was not fully closed and the Dow will push slightly higher today to do so. Up to 20,100 at the very least.

On the flip side, all indices will have to close their Friday's gap higher fairly soon. That suggests further downside will start soon.

None of the above clarify our longer-term picture. We are still waiting for some sort of a market confirmation. If the Dow manages to break above 20,200 over the next few days, it is nearly certain that we are likely to see a new top by March 1st. Our next TIME turning point. However, if the Dow is able to break support, today at 19,500, it will signal that the top is in. For now we wait and observe the market. Waiting for a confirmation. Stay tuned.

February 3rd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with a 75+ point gap higher.

Despite today's gap higher, it is highly probable the market will close it over the next few trading days. Perhaps as soon as today.

In that sense and otherwise, we remain within the confines of our analysis. Waiting for some sort of a confirmation. A confirmation that the market is refusing to give us.

Again, if the Dow is able to break below Tuesday's low of 19,785, it would be our first confirmation point that a large scale sell-off has started. Most likely into March 1st. That has to do with the market confirming our January 30th TIME turning point. If, however, the Dow is able to push above 20,150, we are likely to push into our final top by March 1st. That top is 2-4% higher.

Let's give the market a few more days to clarify today's short-term picture. With any luck that might happen as soon as today. Stay tuned.

February, 2nd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 40+ points lower.

No changes as we continue to wait for any sort of a confirmation. Either way, up or down. A confirmation that the market is refusing to give us.

The market is likely to close today's gap down before deciding on further direction. However, I will say this, if the Dow is able to break below Tuesday's low of 19,785, it would be our first confirmation point that a large scale sell-off has started. Most likely into March 1st. That has to do with the market confirming our January 30th TIME turning point. Until that happens, the two scenarios discussed here over the last few days remain.

Let's give the market a few more days to clarify today's short-term picture. With any luck that might happen as soon as today. Stay tuned.

February 1st, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 60+ points higher.

Today's opening is entirely fascinating, but it does not yet clarify today's short-term and subsequent long-term trajectory. We are likely to close yesterday's gap down, but not Monday's. If so, the market would remain in a neutral gear and without confirming anything either way.

That is to say, all of the scenarios discussed in our weekly update and over the last few days would remain active and without resolution. However, I will say the following. Today's higher opening is net bearish. The market is likely to close this gap over the next few days. When it does, it will likely puncture rising support levels. That suggests further downside ahead and that January 30th TIME turning point is acting as it should.

Let's give the market a few more days to clarify today's short-term picture. With any luck that might happen as soon as today. Stay tuned.

January 31st, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 30+ points lower. We are now looking for any sort of a short-term confirmation. In terms of helping us determine how our January 30th TIME turning point is playing out and what that means longer-term.

If the Dow accelerates down here, breaking below yesterday's low by 100+ points, it is highly probable that the sell-off has started. It can be a very deep and a violent move down into March 1st.

If, however, the market is able to maintain composure, the probability of a bounce here becomes significant. To close yesterday's gap down and to test resistance one more time. Should the Dow break above 20,150, it would definitely go to its final bull market destination located 2-4% higher.

For now we seek a confirmation. It is possible that we will get it today. Stay tuned.

January 30th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open with a 50+ point gap down. We are now operating within the confines of our January 30th TIME turning point. With most cycles arriving over the weekend and into today.

In that sense, the top might be in and we can get a substantial sell-off here. At the same time, today's gap down suggests the Dow will bounce, possibly as soon as today, in an attempt to close today's gap and then test resistance again. Let's see how the market develops today before coming to any sort of conclusion. In terms of which short-term scenario is developing. No changes to our weekly update.

January 27th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat to slightly down. No changes to our forecast. We are still looking for a confirmation.

Plus, we are now operating within the confines of our January 30th (+/- 1 trading day) TIME turning point. Although, most powerful cycles arrive over the weekend and into Monday. Since the market is sitting at a clear top, we should expect a top here and a substantial sell-off into early March. However, this scenario is only likely for as long as the Dow does not break above 20,150 over the next 3 trading days.

If it does, the Dow will likely push into its final high. Although, a substantial sell-off between now and then is still possible.

Considering Wednesday's large gap up we are likely to remain within this 100 point trading range over the next few days. Prior to January 30th top being put in and subsequent reversal. For now we wait. For both the confirmation and future forecast projections.

January 26th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher. We are waiting to see how much higher the market can push before January 30th (+/- 1 trading day) TIME turning point arrives. Possibly as soon as tomorrow. In that regard, if the Dow remains under 20,150, it is quite possible that we are seeing the top now.

If, however, the Dow is able to push above 20,150 over the next few days, it is highly probable that the market will push to its final destination high that is 2-4% higher. Considering yesterday's gap up, it is highly likely that we trade within a 100 point range over the next few days before starting a move down as per our January 30th TIME turning point. That is to say, we are still looking for a confirmation. Stay tuned.

January 25th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open with a substantial gap up. Perhaps as much as 100 points higher, right into resistance and above 20K. Now, what happens next is the key. If the rally fails immediately and the Dow gets pushed down one more time, to close today's gap up, both scenarios we have discussed here are still in play.

With the most likely scenario calling for the top as soon as this Friday. If, however, the Dow pushes higher and breaks above 20,150, the market is likely to push into its final high by March 1st. That high is 2-4% higher. Let's see what happens today.

January 24th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher. And while we have an earnings heavy day today, there are no changes to our daily update. We are waiting for two things. 1. Any sort of a confirmation and 2. To see what the market will do this week. Once again, I believe this week is crucial in terms of helping us determine if the top is in or if the market will make another push higher. Optimally, we would like to see a net positive week for the market and going into the next TIME turning point of January 31st. But not too positive. We don't want the market to breakout above 20,150. If that happens, the market will likely put in a lower high on or around January 31st and then initiate a 4 week powerful sell-off. The other possibility was discussed last night's update. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 23rd, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat. No changes to our weekly update. We are waiting for two things. 1. Any sort of a confirmation and 2. To see what the market will do this week. Once again, I believe this week is crucial in terms of helping us determine if the top is in or if the market will make another push higher. Optimally, we would like to see a net positive week for the market and going into the next TIME turning point of January 31st. But not too positive. We don't want the market to breakout above 20,150. If that happens, the market will likely put in a lower high on or around January 31st and then initiate a 4 week powerful sell-off. The other possibility was discussed in our weekly update and will be repeated tonight. Stay tuned.

January 20th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open slightly higher. No changes to our overall long-term forecast. Short-term, we are waiting to see if our smaller TIME turning point of January 19th (+/- 1 trading day) will do anything. The low we saw yesterday makes a lite bit of sense. A bounce can start from there. At the same time, the market can very easily break below that level. If we do get a bounce, it is likely to continue into the end of January. Perhaps resulting in continuation of this trading range. If we push lower, below 19,600, it is highly probable that the sell-off will continue into the end of January. Most likely accelerating as time goes on.

Long-term, are waiting for a confirmation.  Again, we are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 19th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat. I am getting sick of re-posting the same update, but there is nothing to add at this stage. We are waiting for a confirmation.  Again, we are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 18th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open slightly higher. No changes to the forecast I have been posting here over the last few days. We are waiting for a confirmation.  Again, we are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 17th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open with 50+ point gap down. In all likelihood we will see the closure of this gap at some point today. Otherwise, no changes to our overall forecast as we await confirmation.  Again, we are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 13th, 2017: PRE-MARKET: 

The Dow will open slightly higher. No changes to our overall forecast as we await confirmation. Again, we are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 12th, 2017: PRE-MARKET:

The Dow will open about 40 points lower. The market is likely to close this down gap Intraday. No other changes as we await confirmation. We are waiting to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 11th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open about 20 points higher. No changes to our overall forecast as I have to post the same update for the third day in the row. That is....we are now in a waiting patter to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 10th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The market will open slightly lower. No changes to our weekly forecast. We are now in a waiting patter to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 9th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open 40 points lower. No changes to our weekly forecast. We are now in a waiting patter to see if the top is in. Any such confirmation can arrive only if the market begins a substantial sell-off. Since we are already out of our proposed elliptical structure, any such sell-off can start at any point now. Yet, as was outlined in our weekly update, the market can extend its current trading range for a few more days, all while pushing 150 points higher. If the market breaks above 20,150, it will push towards its final high located 2-3% higher. For now we wait. Stay tuned.

January 6th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open flat. No changes to our overall analysis. The market continues to trade at our proposed elliptical resistance, with just a few days left within the structure. Plus, we have a number of up gaps over the last few days the market needs to close. It is highly probable that we will see downside action over the next few days as the market gets ready to fall out of the ellipse and accelerate down. Stay tuned.

January 5th, 2017: PRE-ARKET

The Dow will open slightly down to flat. No changes. The market continues to trade at our proposed elliptical resistance, with just a few days left within the structure. Plus, we have a number of up gaps over the last few days the market needs to close. It is highly probable that we will see downside action over the next few days as the market gets ready to fall out of the ellipse and accelerate down. Stay tuned.

January 4th, 2017: PRE-MARKET

The Dow will open about  35 points higher. With yet another gap up. No changes. The market continues to trade around our proposed elliptical resistance level. That is likely to continue until we fall out of this elliptical structure early next week. It is at that time that we should see a meaningful sell-off. For as long as the Dow doesn't push to a new all time high over the next few days, this analysis will remain intact. We should see the closure of today's (and yesterday's) gap ups on most indices as soon as today. For now we wait. Stay tuned.