Trade Of The Day – Junk Bonds (HYG)

As the chart above suggests and as our analysis indicates, HYG finds itself at a critical juncture. Should it break support, it might signal, for the first time since 2016 rally has started that a bull move in stocks might be coming to an end. Just as well, HYG might be setting itself up for a massive move down. We discuss all of that in our member section. If you would like to find out what happens next, please Click Here 

Well, in terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – November 4th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains well above 23,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.57 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 82 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 74 - overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,300 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 99 - severely overbought. Daily at 94 - overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -20.Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels. Commercial VIX long interest decreased slightly to 83K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net short. Short interest has shifted slightly higher during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is now at 7.5X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


What If President Trump Is Indeed Brilliant – And If He Is – Will He Collapse The Stock Market Next

I am going to propose something outlandish here. President Trump is indeed playing 8 dimensional chess while the rest of us are trying to figure out checkers. Bare with me for a second.

As you know, I have been an outspoken critic of President Trump over the last few months,  after voting for the guy in November.

Why? 

Well, he has flipped on nearly all major issues he has campaigned on. In addition, he has turned into a psychopathic warmonger who is now inches away from a nuclear conflict.

Finally, he has taken credit for the stock market run up that has nothing to do with him personally. A huge mistake that we have covered here before  Trump Voter: Is President Trump A Complete Idiot Or Just Pretending To Be?

If you recall, during the Presidential campaign Mr. Trump has said that the stock market is in a "Big, Fat and Ugly", bubble and that Janet Yellen was juicing it.  That is to say, he is very much aware of the fact that we are in a financial bubble.

Anyway, this post is already getting long, so, here is my hypothesis......

  1. Trump is very much aware of the stock market bubble.
  2. He proceeded to juice the market with the help of central bankers and his tax plan. Tax plan that was very short on detail until a few weeks ago. Even now it is just a 9 page summary that quite a few people have said is full of hot air and will never pass in its current form. Perhaps that was done by design as well. I suggest you read David Stockman's Blog in that regard or if you need more information.
  3. Once the Congress kills Trump's tax plan, the stock market will/should collapse. We even get this Treasury secretary: Pass a tax bill or markets will tank
  4. Market crashes from today's obscene valuation levels.

Any rational person might be questioning my sanity right about now, wondering what in the world am I talking about.

That would be 2018 mid-term elections.

To basically drain the swamp and to assume full control. Just imagine what would happen if Trump points towards  the legislative branch and blames them for the market/economic collapse. They will be thrown out of office. Checkmate and game over.

I guess we can conclude this with 3 simple questions. Have I lost my mind? Is President Trump an Idiot? Is President Trump playing at a much higher playing field that we mere mortals don't understand?

I guess we are about to find out. 

In terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.

As The FED Predicts Inflation Should We Prepare For A Massive Deflationary Spiral?

If there is one conundrum Janet Yellen can't explain, or so she claims, is the case of missing inflation. After all, after printing Trillions in a zero interest rate environment it should be clearly evident.

It is not. The 10-Year note is slightly above 2% while most commodities are in various stages of a bear market.

I find it difficult to believe that Ponzi Finance operators at the FED can't figure out where their missing inflation is. For GOD's sake, just read this blog.

Most of the money that Janet Yellen and other central bankers printed went directly into speculative assets. You know..... stocks, bonds, real estate, bitcoin, art, fancy cars, etc.....That is the reason the stock market is selling at the highest valuation level in history.

Instead, we get the following nonsense from the FED

"We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the recovery will warrant gradual increases in that rate to sustain a healthy labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2 percent longer-run objective." Fed officials are nonetheless watching price pressures closely, Yellen said, as the “biggest surprise in the U.S. economy this year has been inflation.”

Sure, the economy appears strong because the FED has used its unlimited credit card to give an appearance of prosperity. Yet, the underlying issue of massive debt loads remains.

And that is precisely why we will not see inflation. Just a deflationary collapse.

Again, we have already witnessed this inflation in asset prices, now at unsustainable levels. When the debt bubble finally pops, so will those values.  That alone will plunge us back into a deflationary spiral or where we left of in 2008-2009.

Only outright monetization or debt default can trigger inflation at this stage. But that comes at a price as well. Interesting times ahead....that's for sure.

In terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – October 13th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is now approaching 23,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 31.15 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 77 - overbought. Daily RSI is at 78 overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,100 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 99 overbought. Daily at 96 - severely overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +9. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels. Commercial VIX long interest increased to 112K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net short. Short interest has shifted slightly higher during the week. For now, the Dow is 10X, the S&P is at 3X net short, Russell 2000 is now at 8X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


The Cost Of Missing Out On Today’s Rally Is Staggering

Or so says the mainstream financial media. According to them, you must be some sort of a crazy lunatic not to believe in what the market is doing. After all, the returns are easy and sweet.

I have personally heard it all before at 2000 and 2007 tops. And I have read about the many other instances where the above statement makes a rare appearance. Just take a brief look at how bullish this article is......

Bloomberg: The Cost of Missing the Market Boom Is Skyrocketing

Skepticism in global equity markets is getting expensive.

From Japan to Brazil and the U.S. as well as places like Greece and Ukraine, an epic year in equities is defying naysayers and rewarding anyone who staked a claim on corporate ownership. Records are falling, with about a quarter of national equity benchmarks at or within 2 percent of an all-time high.

You’ve heard people being bearish for eight years. They were wrong,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Raymond James Financial Inc., which oversees $500 billion. “The proof is in the returns.”

To put this year’s gains in perspective, the value of global equities is now 3 1/2 times that at the financial crisis bottom in March 2009. Aided by an 8 percent drop in the U.S. currency, the dollar-denominated capitalization of worldwide shares appreciated in 2017 by an amount -- $20 trillion -- that is comparable to the total value of all equities nine years ago.

And yet skeptics still abound, pointing to stretched valuations or policy uncertainty from Washington to Brussels. Those concerns are nothing new, but heeding to them is proving an especially costly mistake.

Clinging to such concerns means discounting a harmonized recovery in the global economy that’s virtually without precedent -- and set to pick up steam, according to the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, inflation remains tepid, enabling major central banks to maintain accommodative stances.

“When policy is easy and growth is strong, this is an environment more conducive for people paying up for valuations,” said Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. “The markets are up in line with what the earnings have done, and stronger earnings helped drive a higher level of enthusiasm and a higher level of risk taking.”

The numbers are impressive: more than 85 percent of the 95 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg worldwide are up this year, on course for the broadest gain since the bull market started. Emerging markets have surged 31 percent, developed nations are up 16 percent.

Big companies are becoming huge, from Apple Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technology megacaps occupy all top six spots in the ranks of the world’s largest companies by market capitalization for the first time ever.

Up 39 percent this year, the $1 trillion those firms added in value equals the combined worth of the world’s six-biggest companies at the bear market bottom in 2009. Apple, priced at $810 billion, is good for the total value of the 400 smallest companies in the S&P 500.

Overall, U.S. corporate earnings are expected to rise 11 percent this year, on track to be the best profit growth since 2010. And after years of disappointments, European profits are set to climb 14 percent in 2017, Bloomberg data show. The expectations for both regions are are roughly in line with forecasts made at the beginning of the year, defying the usual pattern of analysts downgrading their estimates as the months go by.

Meanwhile, Asia is home to some of the world’s steepest rallies, led by Hong Kong stocks that are up 29 percent this year. Shares in Tokyo also hit fresh decade highs this week, bolstered by investor confidence before the local corporate earnings season and a snap election this month.

“Asia will benefit from continued improving regional growth, stable macroeconomic conditions and undemanding valuations,” said BNP Paribas Asset Management’s head of Asia Pacific equities Arthur Kwong. Any pullback in Asian equities after the year-to-date rally presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors, he wrote in a note.

Global economic growth has been robust in most places, with Europe finally joining the party and the euro-area economy on track for its best year since at least 2010. The region’s steady recovery has eclipsed worries about populism, which a few years ago would have been enough to derail any stock market rally.

“I’ve never been so optimistic about the global economy,” said Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “Ten years after the financial crisis, Europe is recovering and we have synchronized economic growth around the world. Even if we get it wrong on a country or two, it doesn’t change the big picture, which is positive for the equity markets.”

Alright, alright........I am a believer. Here, take my money and buy me those FANG things. And don't forget some Bitcoin. I've never been so optimistic about any of this. 

On a more serious note and if you recall, these views were nowhere to be found at 2016 lows. On the contrary, many of the same people were expecting a collapse. Now they are as optimistic as ever. Perhaps that should be taken as a warning sign.

Finally and if history is any guide, be careful, the market might wipe out the above gains and excitement in a matter of days. Sending the cost of participating in this rally to the moon and back.

In terms of the stock market, the situation is incredibly complex. If you would like to find out what happens next, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 14th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 11th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.45 Slightly off highs, but still.....arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 67.86  - neutral. Daily RSI is at 60.53 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 78.82 - overbought. Daily at 51.53 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +13. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels Commercial VIX long interest increased slightly to 75K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are net neutral. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Why Russia Believes The US Is Preparing For An Immediate War – Possibly Thermonuclear

If you are semi-aware of what is going on in the world you are familiar with the fact that Mr. Kim has been pocking Mr. Trump in the eye with his never ending and annoying missile launches. And doing so fairly successfully I might add.

"All options are on the table" is the lackluster response President Trump has been able to muster up thus far. The MSM believes in one of two things. First, any war with North Korea in unlikely. Second, in an unlikely case of a war, Seal Team 6 will liberate North Korea in about 30 minutes.

Our Russian counterparts hold a completely different view. Something worth listening to. In nothing else to protect your stock market profits.

'Americans Preparing for War': Why US Testing B61-12 Nuclear Bomb 

The recent flight tests of an upgraded nuclear bomb in the Nevada desert mean that the United States is preparing for war, military analyst Oleg Glazunov told Sputnik.

Just a few minutes ago I posted the following link Top Forecaster Predicts War With North Korea By September 12th

My analysis is as follows: 

There will be a devastating conflict with North Korea over the next two months. And yes, there is a real possibility that this conflict will go nuclear. If so, millions will die in Seoul, South Korea alone. As crazy as that may sound today.

Most importantly, there will be no advance warning. President Trump has said just about as much. In other words, by the time you wake up in the morning, half of Asia and possibly the West Coast might be dealing with radioactive fallout.

I wonder what that would do to the stock market futures. BTFD???

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here.