Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 16th, 2018

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is now above 25,000
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 33.06 Off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 60 - neutral. Daily RSI is at 50 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,900 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 51  - neutral. Daily at 55 - neutral
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +23 Neutral.
  • Commercial VIX interest is now 20K contracts net short.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, shifted into a bullish positioning.  For now, the Dow is 2X net short, the S&P is at 4X net short, Russell 2000 is net neutral and the Nasdaq is now 3X net long.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric's Elliott Waves

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 15th, 2018 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric's Elliott Waves

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 13th, 2018 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the Wilshire 5000. Charts courtesy Daneric's Elliott Waves

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the Wilshire 5000 might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – February 12th, 2018

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow is back above 24,000
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 32.14 Off highs, but still arguably at the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 53 - neutral. Daily RSI is at 42 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,800 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 56  - neutral. Daily at 22 - oversold
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at -74. Oversold.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX positioning reversed dramatically right before the "crash".  Commercial VIX long interest went from being 22K contracts net long to being 30K contracts net short.
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) have, more or less, maintained their positioning.  For now, the Dow is 3X, the S&P is at 4X net short, Russell 2000 is now at 2.5X net short and the Nasdaq is net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.

What F$%&ing Crash Is Everyone Talking About?

The Dow is down 10% or so from its all time high a few weeks ago and most investors are literally losing their minds. So much so that quite a few bullish investors are proclaiming that we have already witnessed a historic crash. Most often followed by "now is the time to buy the dip".

Here are my favorites........

This week's crazy market swings are largely due to a band of uninformed investors who got caught speculating, CNBC's Jim Cramersaid Thursday. "A group of complete morons" who traded little-known, leveraged products that bet on volatility is "blowing up" everything, Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." Cramer has been particularly critical of the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term exchange-traded note, which is traded under the symbol XIV, and those who put money into it.

Well, there you go ladies and gentlemen. The mystery of today's apocalyptic 10% stock market "crash" has been solved. Forget historic overvaluation, massive leverage, record setting bullish sentiment, etc... It is all the fault of idiotic bears and volatility traders.

The reality, of course, is entirely different.

As we have suggested here for months, the stock market has never been more expensive and bullish animal spirits have never been higher.  And it all has been financed with a massive infusion of debt in the form of QE and zero interest rates.

So much so that for the stock market to return to its median P/E level of around 15 stocks would have to crash 50-60% from today's levels. And that's without taking into consideration the impact on earnings.

In other words, bulls can blame moronic bears, volatility traders or the Pope himself, but they haven't seen a crash yet. They will, but I wouldn't want to discourage them from BTFD now.

If you would like to find out what the stock market will do next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here