Before I offend you, directly or indirectly, in today's charged political climate I have to admit to something worse. I am even a bigger idiot. After being one of the first to suggest he would win (InvestWithAlex Predicts: Donald Trump Will Be The Next President - May 2016) and voting for the guy in November and I feel utterly betrayed by him on multiple levels. At same time, anything but Hillary - right?
From completely reversing on the Fed and Janet Yellen, to bending over to Saudi Arabia. From bombing ISIS fighting troops in Syria to threatening a nuclear war with North Korea.
Russia’s witch hunt aside, much of Mr. Trump’s Presidency is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Now, before I bash the guy, I have to admit, he has already done quite a bit of good for the country. For instance, just a few days ago Trump ended covert CIA program to arm Syrian “Freedom Fighters (aka ISIS). His anti globalization and pro American movement is picking up speed and that is great for the country.
At the same time, Mr. Trump is a complete idiot. He doesn’t know it yet, but he has already destroyed his Presidency. And no, it has nothing to do with Russia.
Here is why…….
I have said this before and I will say this again. Forget Russia and everything else, this is the worst possible thing that Trump could have done. It is even laughable. If we apply the same logic to Mr. Trump’s analysis, the rally off of 2016 pre-election bottom of 18% is minuscule. Obama’s rally off of 2009 low took the S&P 215% higher into the end of his Presidency. By that measure alone Obama’s has made America so great that Trump simply cannot compete.
Perhaps David Stockman has said it the best in his recent article….
The Imperial City's Fiscal Waterloo
The non-compliance with Wall Street demands for protecting the credit of the U.S. at all costs and the sight of political disarray in Washington will come as a shock. It will cause panic on Wall Street and an even greater headache for the Donald.
That’s because Trump has trumpeted the 18% rise of the stock market averages since Nov. 8 as an endorsement of his Presidency. Instead, he should’ve punctured the bubble on Day One by demanding Yellen’s resignation and blaming the crash on the Fed and its enablers.
Having taken the easy strategy of embracing the stock market bubble, Trump will soon face a double whammy of unfair blame. He soon will be blamed for the debt ceiling crisis that he inherited; and nailed for causing the third major stock market crash of this century. Even though it was fostered by a rogue central bank that he has not addressed, let alone subdued.
The analysis above is dead on. Pre-election Mr. Trump spoke about the stock market bubble, artificially low interest rates and easy credit (too easy) FED Policies. Suggesting he would deflate the bubble.
Instead, he has embraced it.
With Shiller’s S&P P/E Ratio above 30, arguably the highest valuation level in the history of the stock market (if we adjust for 2000 tech distortions), no one should be crazy or stupid enough to take the ownership of it.
Yet, that is precisely what Mr. Trump has done.
Over the last six months or so I have argued that Trump agenda is more or less dead on arrival. We saw that with Obamacare repeal/replace and we will see it with proposed tax cuts, debt ceiling increase and soon to be out of cash treasury.
In other words, congratulations Mr. Trump.....
You have bought yourself and/or have claimed ownership of arguably one of the biggest financial bubbles of all time. When it finally blows, as it always does, it will take your Presidency down with it. Not Russia, not North Korea and not Mueller. The Dow will utterly gut you, the S&P will kick you in the face and the Nasdaq will finish you off. All while Ponzi finance proponents Yellen and Obama laugh at you from the sidelines.
And that Sir makes you a complete and utter idiot.
Make no mistake, an absolute bloodbath in equity markets is steaming our way. The only remaining question is...... when? If you would like to find out exactly when this sell-off will start, based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here.