Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 13th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.58 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 69.19  - neutral. Daily RSI is at 64.12 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 82.21 - overbought. Daily at 98.04 - overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +43. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels Commercial VIX long interest increased slightly to 75K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are net neutral. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – July 11th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Does NSA Know Everything About Your Sex Life?

Bloomberg Writes: Banning Spying Would Be as Effective as a Ban on Sex

scared_little_boy_investwithalex

The uproar in Europe over spying by the U.S. National Security Agency has led to calls for a treaty or code of conduct to limit espionage. To understand why this is naive, imagine a treaty to ban sex. It would be honored in the breach. States, too, have an overwhelming natural impulse: to spy.

Spying is (or was until Edward Snowden) largely covert; no one freely admits to doing it. It is also one of the last preserves of the absolute sovereign, unconstrained by law -- think Louis XIV in a trench coat. This is one reason why there are international laws for trade, travel and warfare, but almost none governing espionage, except the one that allows spies to be shot if captured in civilian clothes.

Read The Rest Of The Article

It is mind boggling to me that we live in a country that has a massive surveillance program that essentially spies on everyone in the world, yet this same country can't put together a working healthcare website after spending $500 Million on it. Something doesn't add up. Either way, let's take a look at this issue from a different perspective. 

The question is, why does the US need to spy at all?

Of course a certain level is of spying in necessary, but to do it to the extent that NSA does it is absolutely crazy. For example, I am sure the NSA will scan this blog post, identify various keywords (like NSA), assign it to my profile and probably run it through some sort of a filter to determine if someone needs to look into it further. Okay, but why?

Powerful nations or people do not do this. They are confident enough in their abilities to control their environment. Only those who are scared (politically and economically), reserve to these types of behaviors. Unfortunately, somehow the US became the nation of fear propagated by its own government.

The upcoming Bear Market will only make things worse. Oh, and of course they know everything about your sex life as well. 

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Just A Reminder. It’s Legal To Kill People This Friday

black friday

As I write this Americans are starting to get ready for the real Hunger Games. Day like no other.  The only day of the year when killing your fellow human beings over a pair of pants is not only legal, but highly encouraged by the Corporate America. A true spectacle to behold.

As ink dries, the crowds are starting to form outside big retailers. They are eager for battle.  Brother will stand against brother, father against son and grandma, well, grandma will stand against everyone. As the clock strikes midnight game participants will literally rip down doors and stampede all over each other for a chance to snatch a TV or perhaps a $2 toaster.  The few unfortunate weaklings who can't handle the pressure will be the first to go with their brains splattered all over the entrance.  As people continue to do battle insides the store, anything and everything will be used as a weapon. 

The flat screen $49 TV's will be the first to go. As fist fly and 70 year old grandmas deliver fatal blows, only a few lucky ones will emerge from this battle unscathed. As they run towards the checkout lane, unbelievable scenes begin to unfold all over the store.  Kids beating each other to death with plastic toys, grown men cry as stores run out of cheap beer, nerds killing each with broomsticks over video games and otherwise respectable mothers are strangling each other with 39 cent panties.

As morally bankrupt do battle to buy shit they don't need with the money that they don't have, only a few will emerge victorious.  I salute them.  

***I dedicate this article to all the tributes about to die.  Your sacrifice is incredibly important to the natural selection process.  May the odds be ever against you.  

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!   

Just A Reminder. It's Legal To Kill People This Friday

Donate To The Philippines Today

 

typhoon

Those who know me personally know that I spend a considerable amount of time in the Philippines. What happened here over the weekend is BEYOND apocalyptic. 

One of the strongest Typhoon on record has essentially leveled a considerable part of the country. While Red Cross is estimating the number of deaths to be around 10,000,  I believe the number will be much higher. 

While the government is doing its best, the livelihoods of millions of people in the region have been decimated. They have nothing left.  Today....right now....there are millions of people sitting in rubble.....hungry, thirsty and cold. 

As you go about your daily life today, please take 5 minutes out of your day and donate anything that you can. Even if its just $5. Every penny makes a huge difference to these people in need. 

PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR MULTIPLE WAYS TO DONATE

Thanks

What Does The Bear Say?

friendly bear investwithalex

People keep asking me why I don't short the market right now if I am such a bear and believe in my forecast.  I believe this is a very good question that requires an explanation.

First,  I am not a bull or a bear. I am a money manager and an investor. My job requirements are fairly straight forward. To make money in both bull and bear markets.  My current bearish stance does not come from a position of being a "Permabear" (as some people out there), but from a very well researched and analyzed position of being a money manager.  Further,  I often shift gears but only when the time is right.

For example,  I was a BIG bear starting in 2006 warning anyone who would listen that our credit markets, real estate, the stock market and the overall economy would blow up shortly. Not many people have listened to my advice. Then in early 2009 as everyone was freaking out I came out and said that the bear leg is almost over and the time to buy will come in March of 2009. I was an all out Bull when everyone was crying and shorting the market.

Now, with the market approaching all time highs and fundamental picture deteriorating significantly, I am once again a bear.  Both my fundamental and my mathematical timing work clearly indicate that the stock market and the overall economy are about to implode again.  As I discuss on this blog I have no doubt about that.

However, I am not the dumbest bear in the woods.  That means you have to follow the market and only short when the time is right. The timing is not right...... just yet.  As I have mentioned many times before on this blog it is highly probable that the bull leg that started in March of 2009 will complete in March of 2014. Once it does, the market should roll over and head down hard.

Until that happens and until we get the confirmation that the bear market is in full swing there is no reason to go short.  Quite the opposite. The market is still trending up and smart investors should continue to HOLD their LONG positions if they have any.  Just as my advice indicates. (Although I wouldn't buy any more right now).

I hope this helps with the understanding. 

Did you enjoy this article? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!! 

Does NSA Spy On Your Sex Life As Well?

Bloomberg Writes: Banning Spying Would Be as Effective as a Ban on Sex

scared_little_boy_investwithalex

The uproar in Europe over spying by the U.S. National Security Agency has led to calls for a treaty or code of conduct to limit espionage. To understand why this is naive, imagine a treaty to ban sex. It would be honored in the breach. States, too, have an overwhelming natural impulse: to spy.

Spying is (or was until Edward Snowden) largely covert; no one freely admits to doing it. It is also one of the last preserves of the absolute sovereign, unconstrained by law -- think Louis XIV in a trench coat. This is one reason why there are international laws for trade, travel and warfare, but almost none governing espionage, except the one that allows spies to be shot if captured in civilian clothes.

Read The Rest Of The Article

It is mind boggling to me that we live in a country that has a massive surveillance program that essentially spies on everyone in the world, yet this same country can't put together a working healthcare website after spending $500 Million on it. Something doesn't add up. Either way, let's take a look at this issue from a different perspective. 

The question is, why does the US need to spy at all?

Of course a certain level is of spying in necessary, but to do it to the extent that NSA does it is absolutely crazy. For example, I am sure the NSA will scan this blog post, identify various keywords (like NSA), assign it to my profile and probably run it through some sort of a filter to determine if someone needs to look into it further. Okay, but why?

Powerful nations or people do not do this. They are confident enough in their abilities to control their environment. Only those who are scared (politically and economically), reserve to these types of behaviors. Unfortunately, somehow the US became the nation of fear propagated by its own government.

The upcoming Bear Market will only make things worse. Oh, and of course they know everything about your sex life as well. 

Did you enjoy this post? If so, please share our blog with your friends as we try to get traction. Gratitude!!!