If Trump’s Tax Cuts Fail Will The Stock Market Rally Retrace Below 2016 Lows?

Over the last few months we have argued that Trump's ""Phenomenal" tax cuts are dead on arrival.

And that was before North Korea, Comney and an all out media/political war Trump has gotten himself into. Now we get this....

YES, fight he will, but that is no longer relevant. As David Stockman so often says, there is "no snowball's chance in hell on a hot day" that Trump's healthcare bill will pass, let alone his ambitious tax cuts. As Trump's impeachments odds show, he will be lucky enough to survive his first term, let alone pass anything in today's openly hostile Republican and Democratic Capital Hill.

And that begs the question......if Trump's stimulus is nothing but a pipe dream, what the hell is the stock market doing at today's valuation levels? And if he fails, will the stock market retrace below 2016 lows?

Well, first, allow me to remind you that Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E Ratio is at 29. The second highest in history and right behind 1929 top (if we account for 2000 top distortions).

And if earnings are not surging higher, due to stimulus or tax cuts, prices must come down. Even crash. At that juncture it wouldn't be a question of "IF" Trump's rally gets retraced, but rather, where will the bottom be.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 16th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 15th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains just below 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.52 Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 68.43 - remains at overbought levels. Daily RSI is at 59.43 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics at 81.00 - overbought. Daily at 53.20- neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +3. Neutral.
  • VIX/VXX remain near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly higher this week Now at 84K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  In fact, short interest further increased as compared to last week. For instance, the Dow is 4X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 5X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 9th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 8th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains just above 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.48 Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 70.56 - remains at overbought levels. Daily RSI is at 63.20 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics at 86.31 - overbought. Daily at 88.33 - overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +1. Neutral.
  • VIX/VXX remain near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly higher this week Now at 72K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  In fact, short interest further increased as compared to last week. For instance, the Dow is 5.25X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 5X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – May 4th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – April 24th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains below 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 29.17 Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 67.36 Remains at overbought levels. Daily RSI is at 56.17 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,500 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics at 60.71 Neutral. Daily at 49.33 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +7. Neutral.
  • VIX/VXX remain near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly lower this week Now at 79K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  In fact, short interest jumped dramatically as compared to last week. For instance, the Dow is 6X, the S&P is at 2.5X, Russell 2000 is at 3X and the Nasdaq is at 5.5X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – April 20th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast, April 11th, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year.

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3. If so, the market is now correcting in an intermediary wave 4. Once wave 4 is completed, the market will  push higher, perhaps to a new all time high in wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market.
If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast, April 10th, 2017

State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow remains below 21,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 28.93 Arguably the second highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and right behind 1929 top at 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 68.42 Remains at overbought levels. Daily RSI is at 48.06 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 17,350 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly stochastics at 65.8. Approaching neutral levels. Daily at 46.74 - neutral.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +14. Neutral, but has worked off severely oversold conditions. The market might be ready for another leg down.
  • VIX/VXX remain near their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest was slightly lower this week, but remains at near record levels. Now at 95K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning to net short.  In fact, short interest jumped dramatically as compared to last week. For instance, the Dow is 5.5X, the S&P is at 2X, Russell 2000 is at 2.5X and the Nasdaq is at 7X short. That is a significant short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead. The market remains at extreme valuation levels and severely overbought on both daily and weekly charts. Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.