Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 22nd, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.65 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 71.50  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 67.49 - neutral.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 86 - overbought. Daily at 93.85 - overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +24. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels Commercial VIX long interest increased slightly to 80K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 10X, the S&P is at 3.5X net short while Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are net neutral.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Yield Curves & Rotten Apples

Is it time to short Apple (AAPL)? Can the overall stock market survive without Apple surging to all time highs? These are the questions we have when barely 12 nerds show up for an iPhone 8.

As they say, sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. 

Full Story: That's rotten! Barely a dozen shoppers queue at Apple's flagship London store for launch of tech firm's new £700 iPhone 8 

Now, let's talk about the Yield Curve......

It is a well known fact that a flat or inverted yield curve signals recession. And that is exactly what we saw in 2000 and 2007.

Well, thanks to the Ponzi Operators at the FED we are nearly there again. The spread between 10 year and 1 year note is now just 100 basis points. Not at inversion point quite yet, but certainly heading that way.

Now, many yield curve watchers would use the above as a confirmation point that we are still 12-18 months away from any sort of a recession. I would caution against such a view.

Why?

Well, we have never seen the monetary conditions we are seeing today. Everything, including yields, have been distorted to such a degree by our central banker friends that, quite literally, anything goes.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Trade Of The Day – The Japanese Yen

Find out why you might be wasting your time with the Japanese Yen at the present moment. As the chart above suggests the Japanese Yen has been stuck in a mind numbing trading range for some time now. Find out why that environment is likely to continue, why the support/resistance levels on the chart above are so important and what happens next.

If you would like to learn more, please Click Here. 

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 21st, 2017 – Elliott Wave Edition

ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE:

Since many people have asked, I will attempt to give you my interpretation of Elliott Wave and how it is playing out in the market. First, I must admit. I don’t claim to be an EW expert, but I hope my “standard” interpretation is of help.

Let’s take a look at the most likely recent count on the S&P.

Explanation:

Long-Term: It appears the S&P is quickly approaching the termination point of its (5) wave up off of 2009 bottom. If true,we should see a massive sell-off later this year. Did it already complete? Click Here

Short-Term: It appears the S&P might have completed its intermediary wave 3 and now 4. It appears the market is now pushing higher to complete wave 5 of (5). If true, the above count should terminate the bull market. Did it already complete? Click Here

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.


Assumption Is The Mother Of All F*** Ups

The state of today's market is very well known to attention paying market participants or bears. So much so that most investors would argue that it is incredibly easy.

The FED and other central bankers around the world have pumped a tremendous amount of "out of thin air" money into the system, leading to speculative run ups in nearly all asset classes. With most spectacular gains occurring in the stock market. This is very well summarized by the chart below. 

What's more, most investors today would argue that the fact that Central Bankers have been so successful in the past can only lead to one conclusion. They will not let this market implode, no matter how high the valuation levels get. Also know as, buy the dip.

Not only that, should a correction occur, the FED will immediately flood the system with QE 4 and negative interest rates. Leading to yet another massive run up in all asset classes. This is the view expressed here.....

When This Debt Bubble Bursts, Central Banks Will Turn to Money Printing... Again

And today, we find out that once again, derivatives are at the root of the current bubble (debt). And once again, the Central Banks will be cranking up the printing presses to paper over this mess when the stuff hits the fan. Already, Central Banks are printing nearly $180 billion per month in QE. When the next crisis hits, it’s going to be well north of $250 billion if not $500 billion per month. This is going to send inflation trades, particularly Gold, through the roof.

And that is exactly what most bullish investors are banking on today. 

Yet, as the article states, "Assumption Is The Mother Of All F*** Ups"

Meaning, just because the scheme above worked nearly flawlessly in the past, doesn't mean it will not backfire in the future. That is the primary point I wish to drive home.

Let me give you an example. Let's assume recession hits and the S&P drops 25%. The FED announces rate cuts and QE 4. Yet, the bond market doesn't respond. Instead, yields and the dollar surge higher. Game over and checkmate. Any such collapse would simply accelerate lower.

Impossible? Again, don't think in a linear fashion most investors apply today. 

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 

Trade Of The Day – OIL (CL)

Most recently OIL (CL) has been fighting with a long-term and very powerful resistance level located at around $50. Compressing wedge above - top line. Is OIL getting ready to breakout about this important level or is it topping here? Perhaps pushing well below 2015 low of $26.05 in the process. Assuming the wedge breaks to the downside.

Well, that is exactly what we discuss HERE. If you would like to find out what OIL will do next based on our mathematical and timing work, please Click Here

Daily Stock Market Update & Forecast – September 20th, 2017

- State of the Market Address:

  • The Dow finds itself back above 22,000.
  • Shiller's Adjusted S&P P/E ratio is now at 30.65 Now at arguably the highest level in history (if we adjust for 2000 distortions) and still above 1929 top of 29.55.
  • Weekly RSI at 72.28  - overbought. Daily RSI is at 72.37 - overbought.
  • Prior years corrections terminated at around 200 day moving average. Located at around 18,000 today (on weekly).
  • Weekly Stochastics at 88 - overbought. Daily at 98 - extremely overbought.
  • NYSE McClellan Oscillator is at +32. Neutral.
  • Volatility measures VIX/VXX remains at suppressed levels Commercial VIX long interest remained the same at 75K contracts net long. 
  • Last week's CTO Reports suggest that commercials (smart money) are shifting their positioning back to net neutral. Short interest has shifted slightly lower during the week. For now, the Dow is 7X, the S&P is at 3X, Russell 2000 is 3X net long and the Nasdaq are net neutral. That is a substantial short position against the market.

In summary: For the time being and long-term, the market remains in a clear bull trend. Yet, a number of longer-term indicators suggest the market might experience a substantial correction ahead.  Plus, the "smart money" is positioning for some sort of a sell-off.

If you would like to find out exactly what happens next based on our Timing and Mathematical work, please Click Here. 


ATTENTION!!! Please note, we have moved most of our free editorial content to our new website MarketSpartans.com Please Click Here to view it.